2 Best College Football Bets and Player Props for Vanderbilt at Alabama

After bouncing back from a season-opening loss against the Florida State Seminoles, the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide proved they are true contenders in the SEC after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs on the road as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 5. No one can rest in the SEC, though, as another top-25 opponent awaits Alabama with the No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores paying a visit for Saturday's 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Vanderbilt has made noise in the early going with a 4-0 record, but it has faced only one SEC opponent in the South Carolina Gamecocks, and USC's star quarterback LaNorris Sellers sustained an injury in the matchup. In non-conference matchups, Vandy defeated Virginia Tech, Georgia State, and Utah State. The Commodores still have plenty to prove.
Despite both teams ranking in the top 16, the Crimson Tide are still double-digit favorites at home (-10.5). Let's break down the matchup and circle lines with the best value.
All college football betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Vanderbilt at Alabama Betting Picks
Under 55.5 (-110)
Most of Vanderbilt's numbers have an asterisk due to their schedule. The Commodores enjoyed hype last season with a 5-2 start, but they ended the regular season on a 1-4 stretch. The offense posted 25.0 points per game (78th) and 5.3 yards per play (83rd).
Through four games, Vandy is posting 50.0 points per game (first) and 7.8 yards per play (second). Similar to 2024, these numbers will likely come crashing down as the Commodores enter the thick of SEC play.
Slow pace could be the final nail in the coffin, for Vanderbilt averages the sixth-most seconds per play while sitting in the bottom 30 for the fewest plays per game. The Commodores have a 54.1% rush-play rate (53rd), and the Tide give up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (71st) compared to 6.6 yards per passing attempt (43rd). Vandy will likely lean on the run, adding to a slow pace.
Total Match Points
On the other side of ball, Vanderbilt allows the sixth-fewest expected points added per rushing attempt -- per Game On Paper. Alabama's run game has already been shaky with 3.9 yards per carry (85th). An unbalanced offense could lead to some bumps in the road. DRatings' game projections have the total sitting at 50.5.
However, the Crimson Tide still have a path to points through the air.
Ty Simpson Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-106)
Among player props, Alabama's passing game looks like the best value. The Tide have a 54.6% pass-play rate (33rd) while posting 8.9 yards per passing attempt (18th). Quarterback Ty Simpson has been ultra efficient with an 87.9 player grade and 86.2 pass grade, via Pro Football Focus.
As mentioned, the Commodores have enjoyed a weak schedule thus far, yet the defense still ranks 88th in EPA per dropback allowed. Opposing teams are also totaling 227.0 passing yards per contest (69th).
The air attack led Alabama to victory as Simpson logged 276 passing yards and 7.3 yards per passing attempt. He's continued to take care of the ball with 11 passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Ty Simpson (BAMA) - Passing TDs
The Crimson Tide's QB is averaging 3.0 passing touchdowns per game over his last three games. Vanderbilt is ceding the sixth-fewest EPA per rushing attempt, suggesting Bama's touchdowns could come through the air -- especially considering their inefficiencies on the ground.
Against the Commodores concerning pass D, give me Simpson to excel by stacking at least three passing touchdowns once again.
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