World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: 5 Longshot Bets to Target

Longshot Bets at a Glance

• Netherlands: Best Bet -- Outright or to reach QF
• Norway: Best Bet -- to advance from group
• Colombia: Best Bet -- Outright or to advance
• Morocco: Best Bet -- Round of 16 or outright
• Germany: Best Bet -- Semifinals or outright

Most World Cups produce at least one team that no one saw coming. South Korea reached the semifinals in 2002. Ghana and Paraguay made the quarterfinals in 2010. Morocco became the first African nation to reach the last four in 2022.

In 2026, the expanded 48-team format and new Round of 32 could create more chaos, more paths to the final, and more opportunities for a team priced as an afterthought to go on a run that reshapes the odds board.

Below are five dark horse candidates worth targeting at FanDuel Sportsbook before prices compress once the tournament begins.

Betting odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds and are subject to change after this article is published.

How to bet on the 2026 World Cup.

World Cup Longshot Picks

Netherlands (+2000)

The Netherlands are the most straightforward case of a team the market is materially undervaluing. Virgil van Dijk is one of the best defenders in the world. Ryan Gravenberch has established himself as an elite midfielder at Liverpool. Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay give them a dynamic attack capable of beating anyone. This is a squad with genuine quality from front to back.

They've been here before. The Netherlands reached the 2022 World Cup quarterfinals before losing to Argentina. They're a structured, experienced team with no obvious squad weaknesses — and at +2000, they're being priced like a middle-of-the-road European side rather than a legitimate last-eight or last-four candidate.

The bracket helps. The Netherlands are drawn into Group F with Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden — a manageable path through the group stage. If they come through with momentum and avoid the top heavyweights until the later rounds, +2000 looks very short in hindsight.

Best bet: Netherlands to reach the quarterfinals or the outright at +2000.

Norway (+2500)

Norway's inclusion as a dark horse rises and falls almost entirely with one name: Erling Haaland.

Haaland enters this World Cup as arguably the best striker on the planet. He has scored 55 goals in 48 Norway appearances and is capable of scoring hat-tricks against any opposition when given the right service. His first World Cup is one of the tournament's genuine storylines, and any bettor who fades him entirely is underestimating what a motivated Haaland can do with a ball at his feet.

The obstacle is Norway's group. They're drawn into Group I with France, Senegal, and Iraq. Advancing is not straightforward — France are co-favorites to win the whole tournament. But if Norway come through the group, they enter the knockout rounds with arguably the best goalscorer in the world and price tags that would have quadrupled by then.

Sportsbooks themselves acknowledge Norway's threat. One noted that their squad has genuine depth beyond Haaland: Arsenal midfielder Martin Odegaard and striker Alexander Sorloth (26 goals in 69 appearances for Norway) give them a supporting cast that goes beyond a one-man show.

Best bet: Norway to advance from Group I.

Colombia (+4000)

Colombia are a team built for exactly the kind of chaos the 2026 format is designed to create. They qualified through CONMEBOL without being particularly flashy — but their squad has quietly become one of the most dangerous in South America.

At the center of everything is Moise Caicedo, the Chelsea midfielder who has developed into one of the best defensive midfielders in the Premier League. Alongside him, William Pacho at Arsenal and Piero Hincapie give Colombia a defensive foundation that is genuinely elite. Their attack, led by Luis Diaz at Liverpool and Jhon Duran at Aston Villa, has the pace and directness to punish any side caught out of shape.

Colombia are drawn into Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan, and DR Congo. Portugal are the clear group favorite, but second place is entirely open — and from there, a Colombian side with this much Premier League quality in their spine could cause genuine problems in the Round of 32 and beyond.

Best bet: Colombia to advance from Group K at reasonable prices or a dart throw at them to win it all.

Morocco (+6000)

Morocco became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal in Qatar 2022, and there is no reason their story ends there. Coach Walid Regragui returns with many of the same players who stunned Spain, Portugal, and Belgium in Qatar — and those players are now four years more experienced, playing for bigger clubs across Europe.

Achraf Hakimi at PSG, Youssef En-Nesyri at Villarreal, Hakim Ziyech, and Sofiane Boufal form a squad that knows how to organize defensively and hurt teams on the counter. Morocco's defensive structure under Regragui is among the best in the tournament — they conceded just one goal in the knockout stages in 2022 before losing to France in the semifinal.

They're drawn into Group C with Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti. Advancing is the challenge — Brazil are the clear group favorite — but as a third-place finisher with a favorable subsequent bracket, Morocco could again be the side that everyone underestimates until it's too late.

Best bet: Morocco to reach the Round of 16.

Germany (+1400)

Germany don't fit the traditional dark horse mold — they're a former four-time world champion with one of the tournament's most recognizable programs. But they arrive in 2026 in the middle of a genuine rebuild, and +1400 feels like it's pricing in the transition rather than the talent.

The talent is real. Jamal Musiala at Bayern Munich is one of the most technically gifted midfielders in world soccer. Florian Wirtz at Bayer Leverkusen — who just helped Leverkusen to the Bundesliga title — is arguably the most complete young player in Europe outside of Yamal. Joshua Kimmich anchors the defensive structure. This is not a Germany side that should be seen as a 14/1 underdog.

Their group — Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Curaçao — is very manageable. A clean run through the group stage with Musiala and Wirtz clicking in their attacking partnership could carry serious momentum into the knockouts. At +1400, Germany are the safest "dark horse" bet on this list — more of a mispriced contender than a genuine longshot.

Best bet: Germany to reach the semifinals or the outright at +1400.

• For the latest odds on all 48 teams, visit FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup hub. For full team previews, group breakdowns, and best bets throughout the tournament, head to our World Cup research page.

Frequently Asked Questions About World Cup Betting

What is the most popular World Cup bet?

Outright winner (who lifts the trophy) is the most popular single futures market. Match-by-match, the moneyline is the most popular individual game bet, followed by total goals over/under.

Does a draw count in World Cup match betting?

Yes, in group stage betting, all three outcomes — home win, draw, away win — are valid results. In knockout stage betting, most markets apply to 90 minutes only, meaning a draw after 90 minutes is a valid result even if extra time and penalties determine the actual winner. Always check FanDuel's market description.

What happens to my bet if a match goes to extra time?

If you bet on a team to "win" the match on FanDuel and the game ends in a draw after 90 minutes, your bet typically loses (for moneyline bets) or voids (for draw no bet markets). The "to advance" market covers extra time and penalties and is a separate bet type.

When is the 2026 World Cup Final?

The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain leads the betting board at +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by France at +550 and England at +650.

Who is defending champion at the 2026 World Cup?

Argentina are the defending champions, having won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar in a penalty shootout against France.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.