WNBA Betting Picks to Target for Wednesday 6/19/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever

Over 165.5 (-112)

The Fever are just 5-10 on the season but are 3-4 at home and 4-3-0 against the spread at home, via numberFire's database.

Washington, meanwhile, is just 1-7 on the road albeit with a good spread record (5-2-1). They've been a bit more competitive -- especially once adjusting for opponents faced -- than the one-win road record suggests.

However, Shakira Austin has been one of the more impactful players for Washington this season (+3.7 per 100 possessions with her versus without her). She has missed six straight and remains without a timetable to return.

There's a case to be made for the Fever to cover at home, but I'm more interested in the over.

The Fever's defensive rating at home is a league-worst 111.0 with no other team's being worse than 105.2, and Washington actually has a better offensive rating on the road (95.1) than at home (92.9) through a small sample this year.

The pace here should be around average, and the overall weak defenses (Washington's still an average-at-best unit defensively) point to the over.

My model -- accounting for team health and rotations -- likes this one to score around 169 total points.

Earlier this season (June 7th), the Fever beat the Mystics 85-83 on the road for a total of 168 points.

Atlanta Dream at Minnesota Lynx

Lynx -8.5 (-110)

For as good as the Lynx have been, they aren't quite getting enough credit at home against the Dream.

Minnesota is 7-1 at home with a point differential of +10.4 in those games and a net rating of +12.5.

The Dream have played just five road games (3-2), tied for the fewest in the W. In those games, they have played pretty well but now run into a juggernaut in Minnesota.

In their first meeting this season (May 26th), Minnesota beat Atlanta 92-79 in Atlanta thanks to a dominant third quarter (26-12).

Even without Diamond Miller (knee) and (potentially) Bridget Carleton (elbow), Minnesota's splits are incredibly strong this season (a +19.3 net rating, via PBPStats).

Atlanta's scoring is down recently, as well. They're shooting a league-worst 39.6% over their last 10 games to average only 75.2 points (also a league-worst mark). Their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is -- you guessed it -- a league-worst 44.3% in that span.

Minnesota over their last 10 games? A league-best 54.4% eFG% and a 46.3% FG% (both league-best rates).

Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces

Storm +5.5 (-110)

The Aces' "struggles" continue. They are still a .500 team (6-6) on the season and have a positive point differential (+1.1). However, they're 4-6 in their last 10 games and aren't exactly trending.

The Storm, on the other hand, are 9-5 on the year and 8-2 in their last 10. They now hit the road as underdogs against the champs.

Within Seattle's 9-5 overall record is a 5-4 road record; Las Vegas is 3-4 at home.

In fairness, when I adjust home and road games for opponents faced, the Storm look a little worse and the Aces look a little better than the records suggest -- but there's still a lot to like about Seattle on the road.

The Aces are likely getting a bit unlucky from beyond the arc, as opponents are shooting a league-best 39.3% against them (league average is 33.4%). Then again, they're not doing themselves any favors, as they allow a 36.0% three-point attempt rate and 25.0 three-point attempts per game (both second-worst in the WNBA).

While I am expecting regression for Las Vegas that leads to better defensive metrics, Seattle doesn't live by the three in the first place. They're a mid-range team, and the Aces force opponents away from the rim.

Seattle also beat LV 78-65 back on June 7th -- in Las Vegas.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.