Egypt at -175 is the universal pick from every credible source. The quality gap between Salah/Marmoush and New Zealand's defense is significant. Egypt conceded zero goals in six qualifying matches. Their only concern is breaking through a potentially defensive NZ setup — but Salah's movement and Marmoush's direct running give them the tools. Egypt has never lost to New Zealand in three meetings. CBS, FOX Sports, Squawka and Yahoo all explicitly back Egypt to win.

BTTS Yes at +130 on FanDuel is SBR's explicitly named prop. New Zealand cannot afford to sit back — they need three points just as badly as Egypt. Both teams will push forward, creating space at both ends. Egypt's Marmoush had 0.63 xG vs Belgium without converting — the goal is due. NZ scored twice vs Iran. $10 at +130 returns $23.00.

Salah at +120 on FanDuel is named explicitly by both FOX Sports and SBR as their scorer pick. He faces a New Zealand right-back who just allowed two goals against Iran. At +120 — just above even money — this is strong value for one of the most dangerous attackers in world football. $10 at +120 returns $22.00.

Our lean: BTTS Yes +130 and Over 2.5 +122 for a six-pointer where both sides need the win. Egypt ML -175 as the anchor. But the Under case is genuine.

Egypt have the superior squad and a genuine attacking threat New Zealand's defence has not yet faced. Salah vs Payne is the key matchup — and Salah's movement and clinical finishing should win it. Marmoush, the highest xG performer vs Belgium, is due to score. But New Zealand should also find the net — they scored twice vs Iran and will press aggressively. Egypt 2-1 is our prediction: Egypt to win, BTTS Yes, Over 2.5.