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What's the Dolphins' Fantasy Football Outlook After Tua Tagovailoa's Return?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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What's the Dolphins' Fantasy Football Outlook After Tua Tagovailoa's Return?

After missing four consecutive games from a concussion, the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa returned to action in Week 8. The Fins logged only 10.0 points per game (PPG) paired with a measly 4.4 yards per play in games Tua didn't play 100% of the snaps.

When Tagovailoa was fully available in Week 1, Miami put up 20 points and 6.2 yards per play. The Dolphins picked up right where they left off with Tua under center in Week 8, logging 27 points and 5.9 yards per play.

Neither mark is that far off from last season's 6.4 yards per play -- which finished as football's second-best mark. This is the same offense that produced 27.9 PPG in 2023 (third-most). The production was immediately there with Tagovailoa back in the fold, suggesting the Fins could return to being one of the NFL's best offenses.

Focusing on fantasy football, this gives new life to Miami's bevy of skill position players, from Tyreek Hill to De'Von Achane. What's the fantasy football outlook of the Dolphins with a healthy Tua? Let's break down each notable fantasy piece in this offense.

Tua Tagovailoa's Fantasy Outlook

Before returning from injury, Tagovailoa was one of the best waiver wire quarterback options over the last couple of weeks. While his 14.7 fantasy points (22nd in Week 8) wasn't anything great, seeing Miami put up 27 points in his return yields confidence. Plus, he logged 18.6 points for the ninth-most fantasy points in Week 1.

Will Tua cash in on his QB14 average draft position (ADP), via FantasyPros? That's highly unlikely; this ship has sailed. But he could be a quality waiver addition going forward. He's available in mostly deeper leagues at this point as Tua is rostered in 63% of Yahoo! leagues.

Looking back at last season's numbers, Tagovailoa ranked 20th in fantasy points per game (FPPG) among quarterbacks. The 2022 season provided better results, tied for 11th in FPPG. As of now, Tua is not a worthy start, but he could be a depth piece on your bench.

We know Tagovailoa has about all of the weapons you could ask for. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are one of the best receiving duos in the game while De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert form a two-headed monster in the backfield. Jonnu Smith has even performed at tight end, providing 59.3 receiving yards per game and 11.1 yards per catch over his last three games. Miami's offensive line is mostly healthy for the first time in what feels like forever, as well.

Over two full starts, Tua has logged expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) of 0.03 and 0.22, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also posted 0.12 EPA/db in the 2023 season. Getting a quarterback with this kind of efficiency in an offense loaded with talent carries clear fantasy upside.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's Outlook

Most first-round picks across fantasy football have brought a ton of stress this season. Christian McCaffrey still hasn't made his season debut, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall had early season drama surrounding their usage, and A.J. Brown (hamstring) and Jonathan Taylor (ankle) have missed several games due to injuries. With a 2.5 overall ADP in drafts, Tyreek Hill has been apart of this group, causing splitting headaches for fantasy managers.

Hill logged 22.5 fantasy points in half-PPR leagues in Week 1 (4th-most) but finished outside of the top 30 weekly finishes in the next six games. While he finally hit double-digit fantasy points again in Week 8 at 10.2, it was still 41st in the weekly finish department. As WR45 ahead of Week 9, Hill is firmly in bust territory.

There's still hope for Hill managers, though. If your team is still alive, Hill could help make a serious push going forward, and he's going to return to being one of the top-dollar DFS options -- as seen by Week 9's $8,500 salary.

Over Tua's full two games, Hill leads the team with a 28.4% target share and 40.0% red zone target share. Plus, he's earned 4.5 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game for an absurd 59.9% air yards share. Everything we saw from Hill last season as the overall WR2 in 2023 is now back in play.

We don't have nearly the same positive spin for Jaylen Waddle, though. He earned the team's second-highest target share (22.0%) and red zone target share (15.5%) last season. This has fallen to a 16.5% target share and 12.9% red zone target share thus far. Plus, his air yards share has dipped from 29.6% in 2023 to 17.8% in 2024.

These numbers don't get much better with Tagovailoa under center, for Waddle holds a 14.9% target share and 0.0% red zone target share in the split. His air yards share jumps to 29.8%, though, thanks to 2.5 downfield targets per game.

With only one performance with double-digit fantasy points to show for (11.2 in Week 1), it's hard to trust Waddle right now. Perhaps he can return to fantasy relevance after logging 109 receiving yards in Week 1, but the jury is still out with Waddle ranked 72nd in FPPG among wideouts.

De'Von Achane's Fantasy Outlook

Similar to Hill, De'Von Achane fantasy managers should be rejoicing.

After posting some absurd numbers last season -- including 2.44 rushing yards over expectation per carry -- Achane was a hot name as being undervalued ahead of fantasy drafts. When Tua has played, Achane has been electric, logging 19.7 FPPG, and this even includes Tagovailoa's 72% snap share in Week 2. For reference, 19.7 FPPG would be the third-highest mark among running backs in a season-long split.

Over the last two games, Achane posted a 58% snap share in back-to-back games while Mostert logged 33% and 46%. We have only three games with both running backs fully active, but Achane has seemed to establish himself as the Fins' top dog.

With that in mind, I'm probably highest on Achane with Tua back to full health. It goes beyond just the rushing numbers, which includes 14.0 rushing attempts per game for 72.3 rushing yards per contest (5.2 yards per carry) and a 46.2% red zone rushing attempt share during the three-game span.

Achane is also flourishing as a receiver in this split, touting a 19.8% target share (second-highest) and 26.3% red zone target share (highest). Not only is he outworking Waddle in both categories, Achane even holds a higher red zone target rate than Hill.

After recording 16 touches and eight targets for 147 scrimmage yards and one touchdown in Tua's first game back, we have every reason to be sky-high on Achane. The next month of play could be like heaven for fantasy managers as all four of Achane's next four opponents are among the top 12 for the most fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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