US Open Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 9/7/23

The US Open is into the semifinals, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the final days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find value in the women's semifinal matches on Thursday night beginning at 7:00 pm ET.

Coco Gauff vs. Karolina Muchova

Over 22.5 Total Match Games (-108)

In the quarterfinals, both of these semifinalists bageled their opponents in the first set 6-0, resulting in routine wins en route to this match.

Coco Gauff was especially impressive in her dismantling of Jelena Ostapenko, who came crashing back down to earth following her upset of World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Gauff went on to dominate the stat sheet and lose only two games the entire match, wrapping things up in a tidy one hour and eight minutes.

Likewise, Karolina Muchova cruised in her match versus Sorana Cirstea (6-0, 6-3), though her opponent put up a bit more resistance, as this one took a half-hour longer to complete. Most notably, Cirstea converted just 1-of-11 break points, nine of which were erased in a critical game that put her in an 0-4 first-set hole that she never fully recovered from.

Both Gauff and Muchova entered this tournament in good form, which included a meeting in the Cincinnati final for their first-ever matchup. Gauff ultimately won in straight sets (6-3, 6-4) and is now essentially a co-favorite alongside Aryna Sabalenka to win this year's US Open.

However, Muchova has dropped just one set at this tournament, whereas Gauff has already done so three times. Per Tennis Abstract, both players are top 10 in surface-adjusted Elo rating, with Coco having just an 87.3-point advantage. This projects her to win 62.3% of the time, which suggests she should be closer to a -165 favorite instead of -205.

That being said, I'm not sure we're getting enough value to back Muchova in an upset, and I'm still of the mind that Gauff should come away with the victory. Therefore, expecting this to go three sets feels like the best way to go, and if it does, that ought to clear 22.5 total match games pretty comfortably.

If you're still looking for a way to side with the American, though, my lean is to bet Coco Gauff 2-1 Sets (+250).

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Madison Keys +3.5 Games (+104)

I'm not sure how confident I am that Madison Keys will be able to pull off this upset against Aryna Sabalenka, who's been completely dialed in all tournament and hasn't even dropped a set.

In addition to her current form, Sabalenka has an absurd 79% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. She's now advanced to at least the semifinals in seven of the last nine Grand Slams she's played in -- and that includes all four Majors in 2023.

But this could still be a tight match.

Keys has dropped only one set herself, and she just knocked off two top-10 players (Jessica Pegula and Marketa Vondrousova) in straight sets to get here. She largely dominated both opponents, too, getting broken just once across those two matches.

Consistency has always been her main issue, but when she's at her best, Keys can hang with anyone. After all, this will be her third career US Open semifinal, and she was the runner-up here in 2017.

According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Sabalenka might be a bit overvalued as a -275 favorite. The soon-to-be World No. 1 has a 68.0% win probability, whereas these odds imply 73.3%.

If Keys maintains her current play, she should be able to give Sabalenka a run for her money in a power-versus-power matchup, and it's not like Sabalenka isn't prone to mental lapses herself. This isn't a bad number to see if Madison can keep things competitive enough to cover the spread.

While it's obviously riskier, Madison Keys ML (+220) is a fair line if you think the home crowd can put her over the top, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.