United States Grand Prix Win Simulations: Can McLaren Maintain Its Pace Advantage?

7mo

United States Grand Prix Win Simulations: Can McLaren Maintain Its Pace Advantage?

For the past two races, McLaren has been fully unleashed.

They scored double podiums in both Japan and Qatar after standing on the podium just three times in the first 15 races. They've got a great driver lineup, and the second-half upgrades have led to massive gains.

The question now becomes whether that performance is sustainable going forward.

The next test of that will come this weekend at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. And their competition to stay on the podium will be stiff.

Still, my pre-practice model has them the favorites to follow up Max Verstappen, even if it's not as high on them as the betting markets.

Driver	Win Sims	Podium	Top 6	Top 10
Max Verstappen	72.2%	87.7%	87.9%	87.9%
Lando Norris	7.7%	51.7%	81.7%	87.1%
Oscar Piastri	4.7%	34.5%	72.3%	86.5%
Carlos Sainz	4.2%	30.5%	69.2%	85.7%
Charles Leclerc	3.7%	29.5%	67.7%	85.6%
Sergio Perez	2.5%	19.8%	54.2%	83.4%
Lewis Hamilton	2.3%	18.6%	52.9%	83.5%

View Full Table

The model has Lando Norris' win odds (7.7%) slightly above his implied odds (7.1% at +1300 in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds). Given Verstappen's dominance and how thin the value is, I'm not inclined to bet that.

The model also doesn't view a huge tier drop after McLaren before you get to Sergio Perez, Ferrari, and Mercedes. Personally, even with how fast McLaren has been in the past two races, I agree with what the model is saying there, as well, and it leads to my passing on McLaren in pre-practice markets.

As with other recent races, the model views the value as lying with Ferrari.

I'm skeptical of that for a couple of reasons. First, given how small-sample-y McLaren's dominance is, the model could still be undervaluing Norris and Oscar Piastri. This would over-sell the podium odds of other teams.

Second, there's the possibility that a new floor upgrade for Mercedes could elevate them relative to Ferrari. The new floor is reportedly geared toward 2024, but it increases their range of outcomes in a positive sense.

I do still think the model is correct in being above market on Ferrari, though, especially when we're comparing it to the odds at FanDuel.

Let's assume for a second that Mercedes' upgrades do vault them ahead of Ferrari. Even if you swap the podium odds of the two Mercedes drivers with those of the two Ferrari drivers, the two Ferrari drivers would still be above market at their reduced odds. In other words, a boost to Mercedes wouldn't necessarily make Ferrari overvalued.

The other aspect is that FanDuel's odds on Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz to podium (+650 and +700, respectively) are longer than what you'll find at most other books. Leclerc is typically around +400 elsewhere with Sainz maxing out at +500. If nothing else, you're at least buying Ferrari at a discount.

It's always wise to proceed with caution in situations like this. My model is more likely to be wrong than the market. At least directionally, though, I don't mind taking responsible swipes at Leclerc and Sainz in upside markets to take advantage of how wide open things are behind Verstappen.

Have a driver you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Formula 1 betting odds to see the full menu of markets.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.