MLB

Toronto Blue Jays Odds to Win the World Series

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
Toronto Blue Jays Odds to Win the World Series

The Toronto Blue Jays haven't won the World Series since 1993, holding the fifth-longest championship drought in Major League Baseball. They've looked like a solid contender for a handful of the past five seasons, but haven't been able to make it past the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Could this be the year they snap the streak?

Per the World Series odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the Toronto Blue Jays odds to win the World Series this season?

The Blue Jays are listed at +2000 to win the World Series, which ranks as tied for the eighth-best odds with the Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners.

Let's take a look at what we can expect from the Blue Jays in 2024.

Blue Jays World Series Odds

Odds to Win the World Series: +2000 (tied 8th-best)

Blue Jays Betting Odds

Blue Jays Projections

nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

  • nERD: 0.41 (9th)
  • Wins: 89 (9th)
  • Runs Per Game: 4.60 (14th)
  • Runs Allowed Per Game: 4.14 (6th)
  • Run Differential: +75 (13th)

Blue Jays Analysis

Muscle on the Mound for 2024

On a macro level, last year's Jays found success off the back of their strong pitching. As a team they earned an 18.6 Wins Above Replacement mark for their efforts on the mound, which ranked fifth-best in the game. Their team-wide 3.93 Skill-Interactive ERA also ranked fifth-best, illustrating just how much of a force to be reckoned with their pitchers were.

At a micro level, that success came despite a shocking level of regression from 2022 breakout pitcher Alek Manoah. Just one year removed from posting a 2.24 ERA and finishing third in the AL Cy Young award voting, Manoah churned out one of the worst seasons in the majors among starters last season. It was so bad he was sent back down to the minors to work things out. As things gear up for this season, he's expected to battle for the final spot in Toronto's rotation.

That the team found success on the mound even without Manoah spoke to the strength of their pitching depth. And fortunately for them, they'll be returning all of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi for the 2024 season. Even if Manoah can't find his 2022 form, they should still bring one of the strongest starting rotations in the game to the table in 2024.

A Step Back at the Dish

The Blue Jays made the playoffs last year, but swiftly made their exit in its opening round. It's safe to say they didn't live up to their own expectations during the season -- even given it was general manager John Schneider's first full campaign at the helm.

The biggest source of frustration for last year's Blue Jays was their production at the plate. After finishing second overall in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) in each of the two previous seasons, they fell to eighth in the majors in 2023. Their fall-off was at least partially expected; they did part ways with multiple key contributors like Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernandez in back-to-back seasons, after all.

The 2023 Blue Jays were banking on great seasons from the players they did retain (or sign), like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Whit Merrifield, George Springer, and Bo Bichette. Instead, they were met with frustrating mediocrity. Just take a look at each players' wRC+ from last year next to their marks from the previous season to get a sense of how much they underperformed expectations in 2023:

Player
2023 wRC+
2022 wRC+
Differential
Vladimiar Guerrero Jr.118133-15
Whit Merrifield93120-27
Bo Bichette125130-5
Matt Chapman110118-8
Daulton Varsho85107-22
George Springer104133-29

As you can see, pretty much the whole squad failed to live up to expectations last year, and yet, they still turned in an above-average offense compared to the rest of the league. After letting Merrifield and Chapman walk as free agents (though Chapman could still return), they'll need the rest of that core group to bounce back in a significant way in 2024. But if they do, the Blue Jays could turn things around quite quickly.

Can They Turn it Around?

The Blue Jays should still have some top flight talent making at bats for them this year, but it is fair to be concerned about the talent they've let walk -- and the players they need to step up to help fill the void.

Just one Blue Jays hitting prospect cracked MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects list, meaning they might not have a lot of extra support from the minors on the way. Meanwhile, it looks like they'll be asking a lot of a 39-year-old Justin Turner (who was still quite good with the Boston Red Sox a season ago) and fielding specialists Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier.

They will still have the strong catching duo of Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk, who both recently appeared on MLB's "Top 10 Catchers" list earlier this month but need Jansen to stay healthy and Kirk to regain his 2022 form.

The real question for Toronto's offense is this: can their best batters bounce back in a meaningful enough way to make up for the production they've lost in free agency over the past few seasons? If you like the chances of Guerrero Jr. and company pulling that off, the Blue Jays' +2000 odds could look like a value later this year.

That said, FanGraphs' early projections aren't too optimistic about the team's offense this year, ranking it 14th overall. In the cutthroat AL East, that might spell doom for them. It's telling that the Jays' odds to reach the ALCS (+430) are better than their odds of winning their own division (+440). If they don't make any splashy moves before the season, those +2000 odds to win the whole thing could slip further.

Every Team's Odds to Win the World Series

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+320)
  • Atlanta Braves (+450)
  • Houston Astros (+700)
  • New York Yankees (+800)
  • Texas Rangers (+1400)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (+1500)
  • Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
  • Minnesota Twins (+2000)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
  • Seattle Mariners (+2000)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+3200)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (+3300)
  • Chicago Cubs (+3500)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000)
  • New York Mets (+5000)
  • Boston Red Sox (+5000)
  • Cincinnati Reds (+5500)
  • San Diego Padres (+6000)
  • Detroit Tigers (+6000)
  • San Francisco Giants (+6500)
  • Cleveland Guardians (+7500)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (+8500)
  • Miami Marlins (+9000)
  • Kansas City Royals (+15000)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+18000)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+20000)
  • Washington Nationals (+25000)
  • Chicago White Sox (+25000)
  • Oakland Athletics (+50000)
  • Colorado Rockies (+50000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.