Thunder vs. Pelicans: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

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Thunder vs. Pelicans: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

The Oklahoma City Thunder look to complete a series sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans in tonight's Game 4.

Oklahoma City squeaked out a two-point win in Game 1 before blasting the Pelicans by double-digits in the next two games.

The Thunder have -100000 odds to win the series, while New Orleans is a +6500 underdog.

Oklahoma City now has +350 odds to win the Western Conference and +950 odds to win the NBA Championship.

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup for Thunder-Pelicans Game 4.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Thunder-Pelicans Betting Odds

Date and Time: April 29th at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110)

Total: 207

Moneyline:

Thunder: -198
Pelicans: +166

Thunder vs. Pelicans Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Oklahoma City Thunder:
- nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
- Pace: 100.8 (5th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: xx-xx
New Orleans Pelicans:
- nERD: 64.4 (5th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.5 (13th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.0 (6th)
- Pace: 98.5 (16th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: xx-xx

Thunder vs. Pelicans Best Bet

Thunder -4.5 (-110)

After escaping with a two-point win in Game 1, the Thunder turned on the afterburners and told the Pels, "Unfortunately, that's game."

OKC smoked them in Games 2 and 3, winning by 32 and 21 points. They didn't lose any of the eight quarters between those two outings, thoroughly dominating New Orleans.

Perhaps the most telling part of the last two wins -- and why I'm so bullish on their chances of covering tonight -- is Oklahoma City's work on the glass. Jonas Valanciunas had his way with Chet Holmgren in Game 1, snagging 21 boards himself while helping the Pels win the rebound battle 52-44.

Since then? Valanciunas has gone for 11 combined rebounds over the last two games while his minutes were cut to 12 in Game 3.

Chet and the Thunder have won the rebound battle by two in each of the last two games, and I don't expect that to change with Valanciunas having been played off the floor.

But, for as good as Holmgren's been in the rebounding department, his defensive presence is what's really spurred OKC to double-digit wins the last two games. The rook has blocked 11 shots through three games, and he's helped OKC limit New Orleans to just 40.0 points in the paint per game. They averaged 51.3 points in the paint during the regular season, 10th-best in the league.

Along with Luguentz Dort's stifling perimeter defense, the Thunder have held the Pelicans 20 points under their regular season scoring average.

Oklahoma City hasn't shown any signs of cracking on that end, so all we need is a passable offensive showing for them to cover the spread. They've shot 47.2% and 48.3% from beyond the arc the last two games, so another hot shooting night could allow them to hit this line with ease.

But even if they cool off from deep, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have gotten whatever looks they've wanted the last two games. SGA went for 33 points in Game 2 before cruising to 24 in Game 3, while J-Dub has notched 21 in back-to-back games.

Without Zion Williamson, this New Orleans offense just doesn't have enough bite to hang with OKC's top-five defense. Look for the Thunder to cruise to another lopsided victory and send the Pelicans to Galveston.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.