The Betting and Fantasy Impact of Saquon Barkley's Holdout

The New York Giants began their 2023 offseason with two major players to get under contract – quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley.

In a world where even mediocre quarterback play is critical to winning football games and can cost an arm and a leg on the open market, Jones was the priority for the Giants. Jones, who helped take Big Blue to their first playoff appearance since 2016, received a four-year contract with $82 million in guarantees.

The team’s focus on getting Jones under contract before the original franchise tag deadline back in March left little time to negotiate with Barkley and resulted in the team applying the franchise tag to Barkely so the two sides could continue their negotiations into the summer.

But the two sides were unable to reach an agreement on a contract for Barkley before Monday’s July 17th deadline to get franchise-tagged players under contract. As Barkley had not signed the franchise tender before that date, he is now no longer officially under contract with the Giants -- though he is still not free to negotiate with any other teams. As such, Barkley is not expected to participate in the Giants’ training camp, which is set to begin July 25th.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Barkley “will lose money only if [he] misses regular season games and forfeits game checks,” adding that he “cannot be fined for not attending training camp” because he never signed the tendered offer. As a result, Barkley is now expected to hold out through training camp. It is not known whether his holdout could continue into the regular season.

What kind of impact might this have on the Giants this year, and what would it mean for fantasy football if Barkley missed games? Let's dive in.

Betting Impact of Saquon Barkley's Holdout

Barkley was likely the Giants’ most important offensive player last season outside of Jones, and his potential absence could have significant ramifications for a team that has its eyes set on another playoff appearance.

The season-long projections on numberFire currently have Barkley forecasted for 302 carries, 1,347 rushing yards, and 11.6 rushing scores in addition to 53 catches, 327 receiving yards, and 2.0 receiving touchdowns over a full 17-game season.

The Giants’ betting odds have yet to shift since yesterday’s 4:00 p.m. EST deadline, but they will be worth monitoring over the summer if we get to a point where Barkley missing games looks likely.

Here are Big Blue's current betting odds across a handful of markets, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Impact of Saquon Barkley's Holdout

numberFire's projections slot Barkley as the RB7, so if he misses any games, it'll obviously have a big impact in the fantasy-football world.

The Giants were expected to lean heavily on Barkley in the upcoming season, and his absence could have a massive impact on their running game. The team currently has only two other running backs under contract: veteran Matt Breida and 2023 fifth-round pick Eric Gray out of Oklahoma.

If Barkley’s holdout continues into the regular season, Breida and Gray -- or anyone else the Giants bring in -- would instantly become fantasy relevant. In FanDuel's best-ball formats, Breida and Gray are decent late-round dart throws right now who could pay off handsomely if Barkley sits out the season.

The Giants, as well as head coach Brian Daboll, have worked with Breida in the past and would likely place a good deal of trust in him as the veteran presence in their backfield in the event of Barkley missing games. Breida carried the ball 54 times for 220 yards and a touchdown in relief of Barkley last season, and he caught 20 passes for 118 scoreless yards. Still, at 5’10” and 195 pounts Breida does not have ideal size to be an every-down back and wouldn’t be expected to assume all of Barkley's workload.

Gray does not have experience in the NFL but does have what Breida lacks -- size. The 5’10” former Sooner weighed in at 207 pounds at the NFL Combine and could be the Giants’ preferred option at the goal line if he can earn the coaching staff’s trust during training camp. In his final collegiate season, Gray rushed 213 times for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he added 33 receptions for 229 yards through the air.

Gray's name will be worth monitoring during training camp if the Giants do not add any other free agents at the position -- something that the Giants are surely considering with Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott all available.

Of course, if Barkley returns for Week 1, he should be expected to finish as one of the top running backs in all of fantasy football. Few backs possess his rare abilities to create yards through speed and elusiveness, and even fewer can replicate Barkley’s production as a pass-catcher. He finished the 2022 season with 352 total touches for 1,650 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. He's a true workhorse back at a time when there aren't many.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.