Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Tampa Bay Derby Day, 3/7/26

Key Takeaways:

• Tampa Bay Derby Day at Tampa Bay Downs features a deep 12-race card with five stakes races, highlighted by the Tampa Bay Derby, a key Kentucky Derby prep offering 50 qualifying points to the winner, making it one of this week’s best race days.
• Several turf stakes on the card project modest early pace scenarios, making tactical positioning and trip dynamics especially important for horses looking to gain an edge.
• Proton gets a key rider switch to John Velazquez and has the tactical speed to control or stalk a soft pace in the Columbia Stakes.
• And One More Time should benefit from a favorable pace setup in the Hillsborough, where her outside draw and improving form make her a strong value play.
• Kokomotion comes off an impressive debut win over the same course and distance and should get a pace setup that favors her late-closing style in the Florida Oaks.

The biggest race of the Thoroughbred racing season at Tampa Bay Downs, the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby, happens Saturday, March 7. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race offers 50-25-15-10-5 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby, meaning the winner earns points that practically guarantee them a trip to Churchill Downs.

Of course, the Tampa Bay Derby is not the only major event at the racetrack that day. The 12-race card, with first post at 12:15 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, features five stakes events, including a trio on its world-renowned turf course featuring a quarter-mile inner chute. The other stakes on the card include the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) for older grass fillies and mares, the Florida Oaks (G3) for sophomore turf fillies, the Challenger (G3) for older dirt horses, and the Columbia for sophomore turf milers.

You can get all the latest news about the races and contenders at Tampa Bay Downs and everywhere on FanDuel TV, and you can bet every race online at FanDuel. The weather is supposed to be hot and mostly sunny on race day, but forecasts can change, so make sure to check the weather and the scratches to make sure that the pace and class balances have not shifted.

Tampa Bay Downs Picks – 2026 Tampa Bay Derby Day Best Bets

These are best bets in some of the supporting stakes races on Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby card at Tampa Bay Downs.

Race 7 - Columbia Stakes, one mile on the turf - Proton, Congressional

FanDuel odds: 3-1 and 4-1

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John Velazquez was the regular rider of morning-line favorite Alpyland, but instead, he turns up on Proton (3-1) for trainer Graham Motion here. Velazquez has ridden the gelded son of Astern before; they partnered for a second-place finish in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard, a turf mile for juveniles. Proton has been freshened up since a credible fourth in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) in late November. But, he has been back on the worktab for a month, and Motion’s runners tend to fire well fresh. And, without a lot of pace, the choice to either set the pace or stalk it is a good set of tricks to have in the bag. All this adds up to a horse who can start his sophomore season on the right foot.

Congressional (4-1) has raced just once, ceding experience to his foes, but could get a nice setup in this. His win came at 1 1/16 miles on turf at Gulfstream, meaning he is proven at the distance. And, that day, he was able to rally into a sluggish pace for the distance. The pace is unlikely to be very hot for this race, either, with only Proton and long shot Knick’s Honor among the horses likely to go for it. Another slow pace can materialize, meaning Congressional can work a familiar trip. He gets a jockey upgrade to big-race star Flavien Prat, too, and trainer Miguel Clement is a dazzling 10-for-27 leading into this week of racing at Tampa Bay Downs.

Race 9 - Hillsborough Stakes (G2), 1 1/18 miles on the turf - And One More Time, Child of the Moon

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 5-1

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There isn’t a lot of speed in this race – Aunt Mo tends to flash speed and then empty out, but that’s about it. She is unlikely to be able to keep on all the way this time, opening up the question of who will inherit the lead and possibly be able to carry the torch and hold off the cavalry. And One More Time (6-1) looks well-suited to be that trip horse. Though she has tables to turn on Destino D’Oro, she has had some trouble at the start in her last two. If things go better early for her from this clean outside draw, she should be able to work out an outside tracking trip under Javier Castellano and position herself as the one to catch in this race. Trainer Mark Casse’s runners often keep moving forward and do well third off the layoff. He has been shipping live to Tampa Bay Downs, and he has a shot at a square price with this one.

Chad Brown is always tough in turf races at Tampa Bay Downs. Though rail-drawn Whiskey Decision fits, she has settled into a true closing style since moving to Brown’s barn, raising questions about how well this pace setup will suit her. Her stablemate Child of the Moon (5-1) is more likely to trip out at a bigger price. She had been laid off for over a year, but picked up where she left off when finishing a close second in a third-level allowance at Gulfstream a month ago. Any progression second off the layoff makes her a threat, and she has a lot of form, either winning or coming very close in races where she has a pedestrian pace to chase. Irad Ortiz, Jr. keeps the faith in the saddle, and if he works out a similar race shape to what he worked out last time, she could run on best in the lane.

Race 10 - Florida Oaks (G3), 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Kokomotion, Time to Dream

FanDuel odds: 9-2 and 5-2

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With a decent amount of pace drawn into the race, a horse coming in from off the pace is likely to get a good trip in the Florida Oaks. Though Kokomotion (9-2) cedes experience to her foes, she got her career off on the right foot over the same course and distance as the Florida Oaks, rallying from last to win by 6 ¼ lengths in a race on the Sam F. Davis undercard. She got an honest early pace to rally into, and should get something at least as honest this time around as well. Whit Beckman has made the most of limited starts this winter at Tampa – three wins and a second in just five starts heading into this race week – and has a promising contender at a square price in the Florida Oaks.

Time to Dream (5-2) makes the first start of her sophomore campaign. Though she came up empty in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last out, she was a stakes winner at this 1 1/16-mile trip last summer at Saratoga and was beaten by just a length in the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland as well. If she has progressed at all between ages two and three, she will be a serious contender here for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., big-race connections who frequently swoop in and catch major prizes on stakes days at Tampa Bay Downs.

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