2026 Tampa Bay Derby Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

Key Takeaways:

• The Tampa Bay Derby offers 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, making it one of the most important midseason preps on the Derby trail.
• This year’s field mixes proven stakes form with several lightly raced runners who still have significant upside stretching out around two turns.
• Powershift brings second-start upside for Todd Pletcher after a strong debut over the local track, and a tactical stalking trip could make him a serious threat with any improvement.
• Further Ado enters as the lone graded-stakes winner in the field and owns the strongest résumé, but must prove he can reproduce his Kentucky Jockey Club form off the layoff and over the Tampa surface.
• Talkin offers longshot appeal after a productive freshening, with a pedigree that suggests improvement at two turns and a pace setup that could favor his closing style.

The flagship race at Tampa Bay Downs is the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, and that happens Saturday, March 7, in Oldsmar, Florida. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race offers a purse of $400,000 as well as 50-25-15-10-5 points on the road to the Kentucky Derby, meaning that the winner is basically guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Others who run well can also get in with another good prep or two.

The Tampa Bay Derby is the latter of two points races at the track, run about a month after the Sam F. Davis. The Puma, third behind Renegate, is the only horse from the local prep who is pressing on to the Tampa Bay Derby. The only stakes winner in the field is Further Ado, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill last November. However, there are exciting up-and-comers, including impressive maiden winner Canaletto, Champagne (G1) runner-up Talkin, and even highly-regarded maiden Powershift.

Several Tampa Bay Derby winners have made good accounts during the Triple Crown season in the 21st century. Street Sense (2007) won the Run for the Roses, and Musket Man (2009) ran third behind Mine That Bird. Super Saver, third in the 2010 edition of the Tampa Bay Derby, won the Kentucky Derby. More recently, Tapwrit (2017) carried his momentum to a Belmont Stakes win, and Destin (2016) was nosed out in the final jewel.

Tampa Bay Derby 2026 Information

• Race Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
• Track: Tampa Bay Downs
• Post Time: 5:35 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Tampa Bay Derby Odds

These are the nine horses entered in the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby, including their posts, trainers, jockeys, and morning lines.

Tampa Bay Derby Prep Results

Only one horse in the Tampa Bay Derby is a last-out stakes winner. Further Ado won the Kentucky Jockey Club last November at Churchill Downs and returns for his sophomore debut in this race.

Five others come out of stakes races, with three coming from Kentucky Derby points races. Two-start maiden The Puma finished third behind Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and returns to the same racetrack for this. Talkin has to bounce back from a ninth-place finish in the Remsen (G2) in December, and Thunderbuck was last seen running 10th in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds in January.

Two others come out of stakes that are not Kentucky Derby trail events. Redland Rebels, who broke his maiden on the lawn last summer, missed by a neck after setting the pace in the Kitten’s Joy on the Gulfstream grass in January. Roger That Dana was most recently second behind eventual Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Commandment in the Mucho Macho Man in January at Gulfstream.

Three horses come into the Tampa Bay Derby straight off of debuts in maiden special weight company. Canaletto romped in a dirt mile on January 25 at Gulfstream. Hulkamania ran wild in a seven-furlong sprint at Tampa on February 8, winning by four lengths. Powershift, the other maiden in the field, battled but had to settle for second in a one-mile and 40-yard maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs on February 7.

Tampa Bay Derby Contenders

These are the nine horses entered in the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby from the rail out:

1. Redland Rebels: He picked up nicely after a six-month break, missing by just a neck in the Kitten’s Joy last out. The good news is, it’s not unprecedented for a horse coming out of a turf stakes to win the Tampa Bay Derby. However, he still has to prove that he can handle the dirt: his debut wasn’t great, but he did start slow, and his better turf form has come at two turns, compared to the sprint debut. He also has to prove he can handle the pace setup –- it looks like this Patrick Biancone trainee is a frontrunner, but he’ll be forced to send from the fence, and there is other speed outside of him.
2. Talkin: He fought to victory in his debut in a seven-furlong sprint, but was no threat to the winner Napoleon Solo next out in the Champagne, and then weakened badly in the Remsen. Everything about his pedigree suggests this Danny Gargan trainee will want two turns, so maybe the three-month freshening has helped him grow up, and Gargan often has horses ready to fire fresh. And, he should get pace to chase over a track that plays fair to late-running types. In short, he’s speculative, but as a likely long shot, he has enough upside to consider, particularly in exotics.
3. Roger That Dana: He was no match for Commandant last out in the Mucho Macho Man, but kept plugging away for second, and Commandant has already franked the race by winning the Fountain of Youth. He needs a step forward, though, and he still has to prove that he can actually win a race from somewhere other than the front end. He won’t get to dictate terms here like he did in his maiden-breaker, making this a tough ask for this plucky Florida-bred.
4. Hulkamania: This son of McKinzie is already proven over the Tampa footing after posting a confident debut maiden win at seven furlongs last month. He needs to step it up from a speed perspective, but there’s upside to move forward second out, there’s route breeding, and trainer Whit Beckman often pops at a price with first-time routers. He has also been laser-sharp with his entrants at Tampa Bay Downs: he has run just five horses this meet, but has three wins and a second to show for it. In other words, assuming there aren’t too many name bets from nostalgic old wrestling fans, there’s some longshot appeal.
5. Powershift: The only maiden in the field, this son of Constitution was favored on debut over the local course on February 7. However, he was outbattled by another debutant, Chad Brown trainee Emerging Market, and had to settle for second. The race came back fast, however, and showed he could handle the course. He showed an ability to stalk early as well, a style that should play well in this. If he moves forward second out, it would be no surprise to see him break his maiden in this Kentucky Derby prep race.
6. Further Ado: He was a buzz horse after winning by 20 lengths in his first route try, last fall at Keeneland. He followed that up as well with a victory in his stakes debut, a hard-fought 1 ¾ length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. He was able to set a little further back off the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club than he did in his maiden win, a nice dimension of adaptability. The biggest questions are whether he can pick up where he left off and whether he handles the Tampa footing. Brad Cox horses tend to fire well fresh, though the surface question – a big concern at such a short price – won’t be answered until race day.
7. Thunder Buck: He overcame trouble to notch a second-out win at Fair Grounds in December, but came up completely empty in the Lecomte, finishing tenth and last. The Calumet homebred has switched barns since then, now surfacing for trainer Brendan Walsh. New arrivals to his shedrow often pop at a price, and he has proven he can pass horses. But, he needs a significant step forward, even from his maiden victory, to look like a contender against the better horses in this group.
8. The Puma: One of two maidens in the field, he finished second to Chief Wallabee on debut; Chief Wallabee franked that by returning to finish a good second in the Fountain of Youth last weekend. The Puma came back in the Sam F. Davis to finish third – never looking a threat to winner Renegade, though. He is a tough nut to crack from a pace perspective – he didn’t totally lose interest from off the pace last out, though his debut suggests he may be better off on or near the pace, and his debut rider, Javier Castellano, does come back to ride. He isn’t totally outmatched but seems more likely for a piece underneath than a win.
9. Canaletto: This Chad Brown trainee, half to graded-stakes winners Sandman and She Can’t Sing, romped by eight lengths on debut in a mile at Gulfstream. That was a one-turn trip, but there’s more than enough distance in his pedigree to suggest two turns will suit, and Chad Brown trainees often improve with distance as well. Pace is the question – a frontrunning trip from the outside gate is how he got the job done last time and how he may try to do it again, though he won’t have it easy with a few other pace types inside him, and he still has to prove he can handle the course.

Tampa Bay Derby Past Winners Prep Races

Tampa Bay Downs has a love-it-or-hate-it reputation, and it’s fitting that the richest source of recent winners is the local prep. Four of the last ten have come from the Sam F. Davis. Destin (2016) and Classic Causeway (2022) came out of victories in that race, and both Tapwrit (2017) and Owen Almighty (2025) were last seen finishing second in that race.

Four other recent winners came out of stakes races, though only one of those came out of a victory. Helium (2021) was last seen winning the Display at Woodbine and made his three-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Domestic Product (2024) was second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Quip (2018) had been seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, and King Guillermo (2020) came out of a third-place finish in the Pulpit at Gulfstream. Note that Helium came out of a win on Tapeta, and King Guillermo’s last start came on the lawn.

Two other recent winners made their stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tapit Trice (2023) prepared for the race with an allowance win at Gulfstream, and Tacitus (2019) had gotten his diploma in a dirt mile at Aqueduct the previous November.

Tampa Bay Derby: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby:

1. Powershift (7-2)

Though Powershift is still seeking his first win, Todd Pletcher has been down that road before – this year, even, with Renegade breaking his maiden in the Sam F. Davis last month. Powershift ran a good debut over the local course, and though he was outbattled in the end, he didn’t lose by much, and he got some hard-fought two-turn experience. With a speed figure fast enough to stack up with anyone in this field, any move forward second out makes him a serious contender in this Kentucky Derby prep.

The pace setup also appeals. There are a couple of speed horses in this race, and the Tampa course plays fairly to horses coming from off the pace. Powershift does not have to sit too far off, but if he can set a couple of lengths back and get a similarly good and tactical trip, then he’ll be a major threat in the lane.

2. Further Ado (9-5)

Sometimes impressive maiden winners back it up; other times, they end up flashes in the pan. It’s a good bet that Further Ado is the former, as he was forced to fight for it in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November and proved up to the task, battling to win by 1 ¾ lengths in the end. He is a horse who took a major step up last year when he stepped up to two turns, and he comes back to that same 1 1/16-mile distance that he has already proven he likes.

The win in the Kentucky Jockey Club also proved a good pace dimension for him. He was close up to the pace all the way before taking over in his 20-length maiden score, but was able to chill a few lengths off the pace before engaging the leaders and finally taking over in the Kentucky Jockey Club. That shows a level of tactical versatility that will serve him well – and as long as he can take to the love-it-or-hate-it footing at Tampa Bay Downs, he should be able to work out a nice trip.

3. Talkin (15-1)

Among the long shots in the Tampa Bay Derby, the one with the most appeal is Talkin. He does have quite a bit to prove after coming up completely empty in the Remsen. However, that was three months ago, and he has had some time to grow up. His trainer, Danny Gargan, does well with layoff horses, and he has been back on the work tab since mid-January. This all points to him being ready and fit for his return. A debut maiden win – where he beat Further Ado! – also shows that he has been able to fire fresh before.

Though he has not raced at Tampa Bay Downs yet, the track plays fairly for tracking-to-midpack types like him, and there will be some pace to run at. Though he has yet to prove himself at two turns, his pedigree suggests he should grow into himself and prefer two turns in the long run. At a 15-1 morning line – and with every indication that he should go off at something close to that – there’s a lot more upside than with many horses at this kind of price.

Tampa Bay Derby Undercard

The Tampa Bay Derby is the 11th of 12 races on Saturday’s flagship card of the Tampa Bay Downs meet. There are four other stakes on the card, three of them graded. Older turf fillies and mares take the spotlight in the $225,000 Hillsborough (G2). Sophomore turf route fillies shine in the $200,000 Florida Oaks (G3), three-year-old turf mile males contest the $125,000 Columbia, and older dirt males contest the $125,000 Challenger (G3).

The card offers big, classy fields all day long. So, it’s a perfect day to watch on FanDuel TV and place your bets through FanDuel and TVG!

Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs is located in Oldsmar, Florida, just a twenty-minute drive from the center of Tampa. There has been a track in Oldsmar since 1926. It first ran the West Coast Jockey Club meeting at Tampa Downs, referring to Tampa’s position on the west coast of the Florida peninsula. It has been called Tampa Bay Downs since 1980.

The track is a popular winter destination for both East Coast and midwestern trainers. Now known for its meticulously groomed turf course, which was installed in 1998, Tampa Bay Downs has a dirt course that tends to be deeper and sandier than some other dirt courses. This means that it gets a horse fit and can sometimes favor horses-for-the-course.

As the Tampa Bay Derby has increased in importance, its purse has been trending upward as well. Originally a $50,000 race when it started in 1981, the purse was doubled to six figures in 1983 and reached its current $400,000 level in 2018, the year after Belmont winner Tapwrit took the crown.

Tampa Bay Derby FAQ

Q: When is the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: The Esmark Tampa Bay Derby happens Saturday, March 7, 2026. Post time is scheduled for 5:35 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Q: Where is the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: The Tampa Bay Derby is run at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: Todd Pletcher has won this race six times, with all of those victories coming since 2004. His most recent win came in 2023 when Tapit Trice galloped to victory. Pletcher can extend his record to seven wins if Powershift breaks his maiden in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: Further Ado, a 20-length maiden winner at Keeneland last October who followed that up with a score in the Kentucky Jockey Club, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. As the only graded-stakes winner in the field, and coming from the always-heavily-bet barn of Brad Cox, he should hold as the chalk until post time.

Q: Who is the best Tampa Bay Derby jockey?

A: No jockey has won this race more than twice; those two-time winners include Pat Day, Richard Migliore, Eibar Coa, Daniel Centeno, John Velazquez, Jose Ortiz, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. Among those two-time winners, John Velazquez and Irad Ortiz, Jr. have rides in 2026. Velazquez has the call on Powershift for Todd Pletcher, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Further Ado for Brad Cox.

Q: Who won the Tampa Bay Derby in 2025?

A: Owen Almighty won the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Brian Lynch and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Lynch does not have an entrant this year, but Ortiz takes the call on Further Ado for trainer Brad Cox.

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