Suns vs. Timberwolves Betting Preview: Series Odds, Player Props

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The NBA Playoffs are here. In one of the most exciting first-round matchups we have this year, the 3 seed Minnesota Timberwolves taking on the 6 seed Phoenix Suns, with the series starting on Saturday April 20th at 3:30 p.m. ET.

The Suns entered the year with high expectations after making it to the Western Conference semifinals in the 2022-23 season. They retooled their lineup, adding players like Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen to their star duo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

Those moves led to them earning +600 preseason NBA Championship odds, which tied for the third-shortest in the league. Unfortunately, early-season injuries across the lineup led to a sluggish start, but the Suns rallied in the back half of the year and finished with the sixth-best record in the West.

By comparison, the Timberwolves entered the season with far more modest expectations. Following a 4-1 series loss in the opening round last year, Minnesota's +6600 preseason NBA Championship odds clocked in as the 16th-shortest.

Fans may have been expecting another roughly .500 season from the Wolves this season, but the team's core of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert began to truly crystalize in the team's third full year under Chris Finch. Even after a midseason injury to Towns -- who will be back on the court for the playoffs -- the Wolves battled for the top seed in the Western Conference until the very end of the season.

So, which team will emerge victorious from the opening round of the playoffs? Can the Suns build on last year's impressive playoff run, or will they be washed away by the Timberwolves' rising tide?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Suns vs. Timberwolves Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

Series Moneyline:
- Suns: -130
- Timberwolves: +100
Total Games:
- 4 (+480)
- 5 (+250)
- 6 (+190)
- 7 (+230)
Series Correct Score:
- Timberwolves 4-0 (+1200)
- Timberwolves 4-1 (+550)
- Timberwolves 4-2 (+700)
- Timberwolves 4-3 (+480)
- Suns 4-0 (+800)
- Suns 4-1 (+600)
- Suns 4-2 (+340)
- Suns 4-3 (+650)
Correct Score After Three Games:
- Timberwolves 3-0 (+550)
- Timberwolves 2-1 (+145)
- Suns 3-0 (+600)
- Suns 2-1 (+140)
Series Spread:
- Suns -1.5 (+124)
- Timberwolves +1.5 (-152)

Suns vs. Timberwolves Player Props

Most Total Points:

Anthony Edwards: +170
Devin Booker: +210
Kevin Durant: +260
Karl-Anthony Towns: +850
Bradley Beal: +2200
Grayson Allen: +6500

Most Total Rebounds:

Rudy Gobert: -650
Jusuf Nurkic: +260
Karl-Anthony Towns: +1300
Kevin Durant: +2700

Most Total Assists:

Devin Booker: -130
Mike Conley: +280
Anthony Edwards: +440
Bradley Beal: +1000
Kevin Durant: +2800

Most Total Made Threes:

Grayson Allen: +300
Devin Booker: +350
Kevin Durant: +390
Anthony Edwards: +500
Mike Conley: +550
Karl-Anthony Towns: +850
Bradley Beal: +2000

Suns vs. Timberwolves Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

Phoenix Suns:
- nERD: 59.2 (9th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.3 (9th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (13th)
- Pace: 98.8 (15th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 35-45-3
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 30.9% (28th) - 64.4% (11th)
  - Mid: 31.3% (30th) - 47.2% (2nd)
  - 3PT: 37.8% (21st) - 38.2% (5th)
Minnesota Timberwolves:
- nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
- Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 35% (13th) - 38.7% (3rd)
  - Mid: 26.5% (16th) - 42.2% (17th)
  - 3PT: 38.4% (17th) - 38.7% (3rd)

Suns vs. Timberwolves Analysis

Have the Suns really figured out the Timberwolves?

In three meetings this season, Phoenix has amassed a 3-0 record over the Wolves, winning each game by at least 10 points -- with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points.

That's an impressive accomplishment against the third-best team in the league by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The Timberwolves were really good this season and finished a game shy of tying the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder for the top record in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.

So, how did the Suns pull that off? Did they actually find a way to exploit Minnesota's league-best defense, or is the Suns' 3-0 record just small-sample flukiness?

I'm erring on the side of variance here.

The Timberwolves were the third-most efficient team shooting from beyond the arc this season with a 38.7% three-point percentage. The Suns didn't play especially good three-point defense during the year -- their .364 three-point rate against ranked about average -- but saw some incredible fortune in that department against the Wolves.

Against Phoenix, Minnesota shot just 29.3% from three in their three matchups. They didn't shoot worse than 35.1% on threes against any other team this season.

Sometimes, three-pointers just don't go in. That seems to be the case here and could be a big reason why the Timberwolves have fallen short against the Suns. Everyone has bad shooting games, and Minnesota's just happened to come against Phoenix. Over a full playoff series, I'd expect the Timberwolves' three-point clip to normalize.

On the flip side, sometimes a team's shots just can't stop going in. The Suns' .647% True Shooting percentage was the highest mark anyone made against the Timberwolves this year, while their 48.8% three-point percentage against Minnesota made them one of just four teams to even eclipse the 40.0% mark against the T-Wolves.

The Suns made 38.2% of their three-pointers this season -- the fifth-highest rate overall. They made close to 50% of their threes against the Timberwolves. They were just on fire in those games.

That can happen with stars like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker looking healthy and logging full workloads, but it's far from the norm. Over a full playoff series, I'm expecting both the Suns' superb shooting to come back down to earth and the Timberwolves' disappointing marks to regress to their mean.

In other words, it's hard to see the Suns maintaining their undefeated record against the Timberwolves through the playoffs. This should be an intense series between two teams with matching +1900 odds to win the NBA Finals.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.