Saratoga Race Course Picks: Coaching Club American Oaks Day, 7/19/2025

Key Takeaways:

• Race 3: On the Ledge (9-2) steps back into state-bred company after a sharp turf win, and his tactical speed plus low mileage on the grass makes him dangerous; Pay the Juice (6-1) cuts back to a sprint and could wake up returning to his best trip.
• Race 4: Strong State (9-2) looks like a condition-book gem with her new closing style and has room to improve second off the layoff; consider a cold exacta with Roswell (2-1), a Saratoga horse-for-course who always shows up for second.
• Race 11: Vanderbilt (G2): Skelly (4-1) draws the rail but owns enough gate speed to clear and forget, especially if left alone; Nash (8-1) is rounding into a solid one-turn sprint type and has the right running style and price to get involved late.

The Saratoga summer meet rolls on Saturday, July 19, with the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), one of the features of the three-year-old fillies’ racing season. Of course, just as with every race day at Saratoga, the Grade 1 CCA Oaks is a classy race, but not the only exciting betting opportunity of the day.

The Coaching Club American Oaks is just one of 12 races in Saratoga Springs on Saturday. The card includes two other graded-stakes races as well: the Caress (G3) for filly and mare turf sprinters, as well as the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2) for older dirt sprinters. Racing begins at 12:35 p.m. EDT, and you can watch and wager all day at FanDuel and FanDuel TV.

Remember to check the weather, track conditions, and scratches before placing your bets on the races. As of a few days out, the odds are that Saturday should be clear until evening, but that may change as race day draws closer, and any change in the weather could lead to scratches, or even just differences in who will handle the track better. And, scratches can happen for any reason, affecting the pace and class in the race.

Here are three best bets for the Coaching Club American Oaks card at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, July 19:

Saratoga Race Course Best Bets

Race 3 - New York-bred first-level allowance, 5 ½ furlongs on the turf - On the Ledge, HORSE

FanDuel odds: 9-2 and 6-1

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In this New York-bred allowance, there are quite a few runners with limited upside—horses who have had a few chances at this effort and keep falling short. Most interesting is a promising new face in these sorts of races, On the Ledge (9-2). Though he is five years old, he has raced just once on the grass, and that game against open optional claimers last out at Belmont. He tracked the pace and kicked on to win by 1 ¼ lengths, and now he steps back against state-breds. He proved last out that he doesn’t have to make the lead to win, a positive since he dials back slightly in trip—and he keeps jockey Christopher Elliott, who got that tactical style out of him last out. If he can hold his recent form, he has value against these state-breds.

Pay the Juice (6-1) has been defeated at this level in his last two, but both of those races came at two turns. He cuts back to a turf sprint for the first time since his debut in Saratoga Springs last summer, in which he rallied for a close third against maiden New York-breds over this course and distance before winning at that level against off-turf foes next out. Though he is winless in five starts since, none of those races have been this short. Trainer Shug McGaughey does well cutting horses back from routes to sprints, and this might just be a case of a horse whose pedigree reads like he wants to go a bit longer, but he does his better real work going short. At the likely price, at least, it’s worth betting that this is the case.

Race 4 - First-level allowance, six furlongs on the dirt - Strong State, Roswell

FanDuel odds: 9-2 and 2-1

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All but one of the horses in this race are one-time winners, but Strong State (9-2) is the clever condition book type in the field of this next race. She has never been in for a tag, but she won an auction-restricted maiden at Saratoga last year, which made her eligible to start her year in a starter allowance at Churchill that allowed horses who graduated in auction maidens to run protected. In that June 4 race, she showed a new dimension. Though she broke her maiden after disputing the pace, she won last month, coming from toward the rear of the pack early. That should help here; though there are only seven runners, there is no shortage of early pace. If Strong State can reprise that running style and move forward second off the layoff, she has every right to parlay that clever condition-book fit into a win.

Consider playing Strong State in a cold exacta with Roswell (2-1). Roswell is suspicious on the win end, since she hasn’t won since her debut in January 2024 and has four second-place finishes since, including three in all her starts on the Saratoga dirt. But, this daughter of Into Mischief does repeatedly show up for the place at one turn on this surface, and she is also one of the horses who does not need the lead to win. With so many who do need the lead, she is one who should be running on well late, and it would be no surprise to see her run another nice effort second off the long winter lay over a track she clearly likes.

Race 11 - Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2), six furlongs on the dirt - Skelly, Nash

FanDuel odds: 4-1 and 8-1

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This is an interesting case of the Vanderbilt, especially since even though the race is a conventional six-furlong sprint, the field features a lot of horses who are stronger at those extended trips, like 6 ½ furlongs or seven furlongs. That’s the case in particular with Book’em Danno, who has some six-furlong victories against weaker company earlier in his career, but has really made his name against classier company at those longer trips.

Skelly (4-1) has to bounce back from a disappointment in the Aristides (G3) last out at Churchill Downs. Though he is best known for his excellent form at Oaklawn, he can run well elsewhere. Last year in this very race, he set the early pace before getting caught late by Nakatomi, settling for second past the finish line. He has to face that same foe this time, and Nakatomi really is the other deeply proven six-furlong star in the race. However, as long as Skelly can break well from the fence (something he has done before), he has the speed to clear off. And, if he bounces back from his disappointment last out, where he faded after a duel, and runs the usual race that he finds if no one engages him in an early duel, he should lead every step of the way.

Nash (8-1) has done a little bit of everything during his career, including the Kentucky Derby trail last year. He showed plenty of ability but started to show distance limitations. This year, at age four, he has been reinvented as a straight six-furlong sprinter for trainer Brad Cox. In allowance company, that experience has gone well: he won a second-level allowance at Turfway, was second in a third-level allowance at Churchill, then won at that level in his third start of the year. Even just this year, he has shown the versatility to race well from close to the pace or a handful of lengths off of it, giving jockey Joel Rosario the tools to get a trip. The return to stakes company is a question, but he doesn’t need to move that far forward from his last two races, and he will be the right price to bet that he has finally found his best game.

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