NRFI Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/24/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

A pair of pitchers off to promising starts points to a potential NRFI in this Philadelphia Phillies-Cincinnati Reds matchup.

Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo is attempting to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2023 campaign, and it's safe to say he's headed in the right direction. Through two starts, Lodolo has put together a 2.00 SIERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, and 2.2% walk rate, reminding us of the potential he demonstrated in his 2022 rookie season.

The Phillies have been a good first-inning team to begin 2024, but Lodolo should have the advantage in a lefty-lefty matchup against power threat Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto has been off to a slow start. It also can't hurt if Bryce Harper remains out on paternity leave.

Philadelphia starter Spencer Turnbull comes in with a 3.44 SIERA and 25.9% strikeout rate through four starts. The righty has done a good job inducing grounders over his career, and he's doing so at a 49.1% rate in 2024.

Cincinnati has struggled in the first inning this season, scoring just 17.4% of the time (T-24th in MLB). However, the last time they faced a right-hander, they bumped up the hot-hitting Elly De La Cruz to the two-hole, which could prove troublesome for Turnbull. Luckily, De La Cruz still has a high strikeout rate (27.8%) and ground-ball rate (50.0%) against righties this season, so there are still plenty of paths to success.

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

Strong pitching headlines this matchup, as well, and this bet is further backed by the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field.

The Tampa Bay Rays are expected to utilize right-hander Shawn Armstrong as an opener, and he's been an effective reliever for Tampa since joining in 2022. Over 11 innings this season, Armstrong has amassed a rock-solid 2.72 SIERA, 29.5% strikeout rate, and 51.9% ground-ball rate.

While the Detroit Tigers have actually performed pretty well in the first inning, this is far from a star-studded top of the order, suggesting they're due to regress. Middling first-inning marks in strikeout rate (24.5%) and FanGraphs hard-hit rate (27.7%) also back this notion.

The Tigers will start Jack Flaherty, who's been great for his new squad outside of a surprise clunker against the Oakland Athletics. Through four outings, Flaherty has recorded a 2.74 SIERA, 29.1% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate.

Tampa Bay has been a below-average offense in the first inning (82 wRC+) and will likely have only one lefty near the top of the lineup (Richie Palacios). Flaherty struggled against left-handed batters in 2023, but he's produced a 25.5% K rate against 51 lefty hitters this season, so even that might not be anything to worry about tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.