NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/9/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 4/9/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

These teams put together a NRFI on Monday, and we're hoping for more of the same tonight. George Kirby and Chris Bassitt give us a strong pairing on the mound, and as noted yesterday, these two offenses have begun the season slowly.

Kirby's 2024 campaign has been a mixed bag thus far, pitching a gem in his opening start but following it up with a clunker. Altogether it's amounted to a 3.92 SIERA that's not far off from what he put up in 2023 (3.71), and he's yet to allow a home run.

The right-hander performed well in the first inning last season with a 3.56 xFIP, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate. Best of all, he gave up just two first-inning dingers across 31 starts.

Bassitt hasn't produced great results in his two 2024 outings, but he's still managed a pair of scoreless innings. Despite his struggles, he's been excellent in the opening frames with a 33.3% strikeout rate the first time through the order.

Early-inning success is nothing new for Bassitt, too. Despite being an average pitcher for strikeouts last season, he logged a 29.5% strikeout rate in the first inning and a 30.3% clip the first time through the order.

Toronto and Seattle have been below-average offenses to begin the year, which includes a lack of first-inning production. The Mariners have scored in the opening inning just 18.2% of the time while the Blue Jays are down to 9.1%.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

We're once again heading over to Petco Park -- one of the league's best venues for pitchers -- with the hopes that Joe Musgrove and Ben Brown can combine for a clean opening frame.

While Musgrove opened the campaign with a couple of rocky starts, he righted the ship last week with an excellent start versus the St. Louis Cardinals, which is hopefully a sign of improved play moving forward. In all, his 4.30 SIERA and a bloated .432 BABIP suggest he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 6.28 ERA would indicate.

The other reason to have faith is that Musgrove was lights out in the first inning in 2023, putting up a 2.20 xFIP, 33.8% strikeout rate, and 1.5% walk rate. Unsurprisingly, those are some of the best overall marks among today's starters.

Brown is a Chicago Cubs prospect who will be making his first MLB start following a pair of relief appearances. While he struggled in his big league debut, he bounced back last week, allowing one earned run over four innings against the Colorado Rockies.

While we're taking a risk in trusting a rookie, Brown is a promising young arm who's posted high strikeout numbers throughout the minors and boasted a 17.9% swinging-strike rate in spring training. Season-long projections on FanGraphs are universally positive for a pitcher with a mere 5 2/3 major league innings to his name, as multiple models peg him for a 24-25% strikeout rate.

Both offenses have gotten off to good starts, and the San Diego Padres have been particularly pesky in the first inning. But the hope is that their unfamiliarity with Brown will help the young righty have some early success, and temperatures below 70 degrees and a slight wind blowing in can't hurt, as well. This game tied for the lowest over/under of the day (7.5), which is another encouraging sign.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.