NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 8/2/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

Both of these offenses have been below average in YRFI rate this year, and the starting pitchers have enough positives to get us a NRFI.

Los Angeles Angels left-hander Tyler Anderson has looked like a regression candidate all season, owning underwhelming marks in xFIP (4.76) and strikeout rate (18.6%), yet here he is in August with a 2.96 ERA over 21 starts. It hasn't been entirely luck, though, as he's suppressed loud contact with an 88th percentile hard-hit rate, helping him to a 4.17 xERA that's not quite as far off from his results.

But the remarkable thing is that rather than regressing, the southpaw has actually turned things up a notch lately. Across his four July starts, Anderson has posted a 2.70 ERA, 2.34 xFIP, 32.0% K rate, and 2.0% BB rate. While I'm skeptical that he can keep this up, it's still a very promising trend entering tonight.

Anderson hasn't been at his best in the first inning (61.9% NRFI rate), but that's where his matchup comes in. The New York Mets might be a dangerous offense overall, but they rank 22nd in YRFI rate (22.2%) this year and have really fallen off of late, scoring in the first inning just once in the last 25 games. Over the last 30 days in the opening frame, the Mets own the league's worst strikeout rate (36.7%), ISO (.037), and wOBA (.171).

Right-hander Paul Blackburn will be making his first start in a Mets uniform and his second since a lengthy stint on the injured list. Although Blackburn doesn't have a profile that leaps off the page, he's logged a NRFI in seven of his nine starts and has encouraging splits for Friday's contest.

The Angels project to have three left-handed batters in the first four lineup slots, and while that would normally be a negative for a righty like Blackburn, he's actually had reverse splits in 2024. Against lefty sticks, he's put up a 3.43 xFIP, 20.9% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate, and 49.4% ground-ball rate.

Los Angeles is tied for 23rd in YRFI rate (22.0%), and similar to New York, they've been worse over the past 25 contests (16.0%). Just one Angels batter has shorter than +470 odds to hit a home run tonight, and that player, Logan O'Hoppe (+400), typically bats fifth and isn't guaranteed to come up in first inning.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

We've been attacking the road-tripping Colorado Rockies for potential NRFIs this week, and we'll continue to do so on Friday. The Rockies have a 22.0% YRFI rate in away games, owning MLB's worst strikeout rate (32.3%) and seventh-worst wRC+ (76) in that split.

The San Diego Padres' Randy Vasquez hasn't been anything special this year, but the righty has been solid in same-handed matchups, producing a 4.09 xFIP, 20.0% strikeout rate, and 4.7% walk rate versus righties.

This is notable against a Colorado team that features just two lefties in the top half of the order, and one of them, Charlie Blackmon, has performed poorly outside of Coors with a mere 72 wRC+. The other is a more dangerous Ryan McMahon, but McMahon has modest +500 odds to hit a home run tonight.

It's harder to talk ourselves into backing Austin Gomber to silence San Diego in first frame, but the Padres have really missed Fernando Tatis Jr.'s bat, posting a YRFI in just 16.0% of their last 25 games. Over the past 30 days, only the Mets have a worse wOBA and ISO in the first inning than San Diego (.217 wOBA; .039 ISO).

As for Gomber, his season-long marks leave a lot to be desired, but he's logged a NRFI in four of his last five starts. Despite shaky actual results, he has a slightly better 4.32 xFIP and 18.5% K rate on the road compared to a 4.48 xFIP and 15.4% K rate at Coors Field, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.