NFL Week 9 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 9

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-106)

Total: Washington Commanders at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-106)

The Commanders shed defensive assets at the deadline, but this total still seems too high. The Patriots' offense lacks explosion and just lost arguably their best playmaker in Kendrick Bourne. Defensively, they should be able to get after Sam Howell, who did a better job last week of getting rid of the ball on time. I understand why this total is at 40.5, but my model is a good chunk below that with all the factors considered.

Player Prop: Mike Evans Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Side: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-108)

Betting the NFL requires buying into some frighteningly small samples. The Panthers turned their offensive playcalling over to Thomas Brown, and it led to 0.01 Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play after Carolina averaged -0.08 in their first six games with Reich calling plays. We've got two bottom-10 defenses, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings in Carolina on Sunday, but one of them is at home and getting 2.5 points. That pulse of offense last week is all I need to pull the trigger on a home 'dog with its first-string quarterback.

Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans Over 40.0 (-110)

Player Prop: Chris Olave Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-115)

Total: Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens Under 44.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Jonathan Taylor Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Taylor could go off on Sunday against Carolina. The Panthers' run defense ranks dead last by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and is giving up 129.6 rushing yards per game to running backs, the second-most. Taylor's snap counts are on the rise -- 42%, 50% and 61% over the past three -- and he's got a good chance to rack up plenty of yards in this one.

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-105)

Total: Chicago Bears at NO Under 41.0 (-110)

Player Prop: Lamar Jackson Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Seahawks have been downright elite against the running game this season, as they've allowed 472 rushing yards to running backs, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. While the Ravens aren't known for passing the ball a ton, Jackson threw for 357 yards in Week 7 against the Lions, who are also top five in the league for fewest rushing yards allowed. The defensive matchup should push the Ravens to the air this week.

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: New Orleans Saints -8.5 (-110)

Total: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers Over 43.5 (-115)

The Indianapolis Colts are an over machine, plain and simple. The league leaders in adjusted pace are 6-2 toward the over this season, and they now take on a Panthers team that averages the seventh-most plays (67) per game. Neither of these offenses are particularly good, but their defenses are downright pitiful. Indy ranks 32nd in points allowed (28.6), while Carolina ranks 30th (28.4), and they both sit in the bottom half of the league in passing success rate allowed. numberFire projections have the Colts winning 25.17-22.29, which more than paves the way for 44 combined points.

Player Prop: Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions (-114)

Zack Bussiere, Writer

Side: New Orleans Saints -8.5 (-110)

Total: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers Over 43.5 (-115)

Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

After a slow start to his season, Lamb has been on fire recently, catching 19 of 21 targets for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns across Dallas' last two games. In Week 9 he will face an Eagles pass defense that has been vulnerable this season. In their last four games, Philadelphia has allowed five wide receivers to record at least 88 yards -- Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, and Jamison Crowder. The Cowboys are 3.0-point underdogs and could be forced to throw more than usual if the Eagles jump out to a lead. Even if that doesn't happen, Lamb should be the focal point of their offense and find success against the Eagles' secondary.

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-115)

Total: New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders Under 37.5 (-115)

Simply, the Raiders (31st) and Giants (32nd) have amassed less total yardage than all other teams this season. From there, at a lowly 11.9 PPG, Big Blue is the worst scoring side in the NFL right now. Even in contests that Daniel Jones has started (five games), that clip is barely higher at 12.4 PPG. Considering there is a rookie signal-caller (Aidan O'Connell) across the field from Jones, I'm much more comfortable with under 37.5 in Sin City. Also, unders have cashed for a 72-50-1 record (58.5%) thus far in 2023. Let's aim low, here.

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD scorer (+155)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-115)

Total: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons Over 37.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Breece Hall Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Breece Hall has eclipsed this total in significant fashion over his last two games, combining for 130 receiving yards. His 20.9% target share during this span is the second-highest among all Jets players, and his competition for Sunday should aid in clearing this prop. The Los Angeles Chargers give up an average of 54.9 receiving yards to running backs per game (second-most) and have sacrificde at least 21 receiving yards to this position each week. The Jets have gone 3-0 in games where Hall hit the over on this prop, while they’ve gone 1-3 in games where he was a non-factor in the passing game.

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-115)

Total: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals Under 50.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Alvin Kamara Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kamara has exceeded this total in each of his last three games. He's seen a whopping 44 targets in the five games he's been active this season. Now, he's going up against a Bears defense that is giving up the most fantasy yards per target to running backs. That includes getting torched for 94 yards by Austin Ekeler last week.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-115)

Total: Washington Commanders at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-106)

Player Prop: Nico Collins Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

C.J. Stroud averaged only 25.5 passing attempts per game over the Texans’ previous two contests -- compared to his season average of 33.9. Houston may be forced to return to airing it out against the Buccaneers, who have the fourth-best schedule-adjusted run D, per numberFire. Tampa Bay’s secondary has also been a weakness as they rank 25th in yards allowed per passing attempt and sit as the 10th-worst pass defense by numberFire. With the Texans ranking 10th in yards per passing attempt, Nico Collins could be poised for a big showing. He holds an exceptional 23.3 receiving yards over expectation and leads Houston with a 21.6% target share.

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-115)

Total: Washington Commanders at New England Patriots Under 40.5 (-106)

Player Prop: Derek Carr Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Derek Carr has found his stride as the Saints starting quarterback. He's thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games and is in the driver's seat to do it again in Week 9 against the Bears. The Bears have struggled in every aspect of football, including stopping the pass. Quarterbacks are averaging 269.9 passing yards against Chicago, setting up Carr to hit the over on this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.