NFL Week 5 Betting Picks

The 2023-24 NFL regular season seems to be moving along at ludicrous speed (light speed too slow). In what has felt like just a few days, we are already at Week 5.

On-field action has already commenced this week. The Chicago Bears rolled over the Washington Commanders outside of the nation's capital on Thursday Night Football. Of course, that was Chicago's first win of the season, ending a franchise-worst 14-game losing streak.

The pressure is now on the Carolina Panthers to get a victory this week, or they will officially be this year's final winless team (dead-heat rules). At FanDuel Sportsbook, Carolina began the season at 17-to-1 odds (sixth-shortest) to cash this market.

Also in Week 4, home teams went exactly 8-8 while under bettors were rewarded again, cashing in 9 of the 16 games. On the season, that brings the current over record to 29-35-1 through 65 total contests (incl. most recent TNF). An interesting note: the over has not hit in any game the New Orleans Saints have competed in this year.

With all attention back to Week 5, a few games already jump off the schedule.

For me, I'm locked on the Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams, and Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Also, just how bad will the Miami Dolphins trounce the struggling New York Giants this weekend? We shall see ...

Let's dive into the NFL Week 5 odds with an emphasis on scoping out the most valuable of Sunday's lines in traditional betting markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

NFL Betting Picks (10/8/23)

Sunday's Full Slate

*Denotes NFL International Series (Hotspur Stadium, London, UK)

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: MIA -11.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: NYG +490/MIA -670
• Total: 47.5 (-114/-106)

The 'Fins and G-men have seemingly trended in opposite directions since the season began.

Both sides played well enough in 2022 to earn playoff bids, but neither was around very long -- although the Giants managed to defeat Minnesota on Wild Card weekend. Regardless, Big Blue is currently scoring an NFL-low 11.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 30.5 PPG. Clearly, that is no recipe for success.

Across the field, Miami has been one of the most exciting teams to follow in the current campaign. At 3-1 straight up (SU), the Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with for some time. Naturally, much of their success has been tied to fourth-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. His QBR of 79.0 is currently second-best in the NFL. Simply, it is no shocker to see his position on FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP odds: +500 (also second-best).

New York will have a tough time escaping their current funk against Miami. The Dolphins are the top-scoring team in the league right now. Considering the Giants have suffered their three losses this year by an average margin of 26.3 points, yes, this contest could get ugly.

Best Bet: Dolphins 1H -7.5 (-110)

I won't be the only one, but I am laying the points with Miami. However, 11 points with a hook is a steep spread in any NFL contest; numberFire has the Dolphins winning by a projected score of 28.93-20.12, which would obviously not cover a dozen. But the number (7.5) is much more approachable if played for just the first half.

Big Blue has scored only nine first-half points all year. Additionally, New York has yet to find the end zone before halftime -- all their touchdowns in 2023 have come in the third or fourth quarter. This is the sort of trend that should not be ignored.

Given that Miami's offense is back at full strength with speedsters Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, I can be confident in them taking a two-score lead into the half on Sunday. Keep in mind: the 'Fins are averaging a college-like 511 total yards of offense per game (YPG).

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: CBS
• Spread: BAL -4.5
• Moneyline: BAL -205/PIT +172
• Total: 38 (-108/-112)

The Ravens were one of only four underdogs to win SU in Week 4. In that game, Baltimore (+110 ML) went into Ohio and pounded the Cleveland Browns sans Deshaun Watson (shoulder), 28-3. Lamar Jackson played efficiently behind a 78.9% completion clip, two passing scores and two rushing scores. However, Jackson did fumble twice (one lost).

Twirlers of the "Terrible Towel" seem to be in rare turmoil. Typically, the NFL franchise in Pittsburgh is a model of consistency and professionalism. Of course, we all know head coach Mike Tomlin has never produced an under-.500 record in 16 previous campaigns with the Steelers.

However, Tomlin's historic streak is likely in jeopardy. Undeniably, the offense is not enjoyable to watch under Kenny Pickett right now, nor are they productive. In 2023, Pittsburgh's offense has amassed the third-lowest yardage total (1,052 yards) thus far.

Still, in almost any season, Baltimore versus Pittsburgh provides one of the hardest-hitting contests. Sure, studs like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison (among many, many others) are long gone, but the defensive intensity in this AFC North series has continued. In the five most recent head-to-head meetings, the combined point total has averaged only 32.0 PPG.

Best Bet: Under 38 (-112)

Aside from the historic rivalry, you should know that Baltimore and Pittsburgh have both been friendly to under bettors in 2023. In the eight total games these sides have played in this year, the under has prevailed 75% of the time, with each team having the over hit in just one of its four contests. Larger scale, with unders cashing league-wide at a 53.8% rate to this point in the year, I believe this contest fits the shoe.

Also, it is always must-see television when T.J. Watt -- arguably the best pass rusher in the game -- gets a chance to chase after the hyper-athletic Jackson.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

• Time: 1 p.m. EST
• TV: CBS
• Spread: NO -1 (-105)
• Moneyline: NO -108/NE -108
• Total: 39.5

In a clash of proud football cultures, the Saints will go marching into Massachusetts this weekend where the frustrated New England Patriots await. So far, New Orleans has played to a split 2-2 record (2-2 ATS) while the Pats are one of eight sides entering Week 5 at 1-3 (1-3 ATS). Both teams have struggled mightily over the past two games.

New England is returning home after getting their lunch and dinner taken in Dallas last week (metaphorically speaking, of course); the 38-3 loss to the Cowboys last Sunday was New England's largest defeat since head coach Bill Belichick took over the reins.

The Saints are currently dealing with struggles of their own. Most notably, quarterback Derek Carr is still working through lingering issues with his throwing-shoulder AC joint sustained in Week 3. He did not miss any time in Week 4, but Carr looked uncomfortable, getting outplayed by Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carr has been limited this week in practice and is still questionable for the game in Foxborough -- don't rule out seeing Jameis Winston.

Best Bet: Under 39.5 (-110)

Staying with the trend of unders, I believe this is another game that fits the bill. Yes, 39.5 is a low number, but New England is sputtering on offense -- quarterback Mac Jones has a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Additionally, the Pats are tasked with facing a top-15 scoring defense for the third-straight week; the Saints are ninth in the NFL in that stat and currently rank 11th in yards allowed.

I don't see New Orleans coming into Belichick's domain and lighting up the scoreboard with a partially injured quarterback. Either way, the Patriots are averaging only 13.8 PPG this year while Who Dat has produced a lowly 15.5 PPG through four games. I'll take under 39.5 in Foxborough.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

• Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
• TV: FOX
• Spread: PHI -4.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: PHI -205/LAR +172
• Total: 50.5

Philadelphia will head back west for the first time since losing Super Bowl LVII in Arizona last February. This week, they are headed to a different state, but something tells me that the five-hour flight to the City of Angels will remind the Eagles of the final goal.

On the other side, the Rams have been one of the NFL's pleasant surprises in 2023. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Los Angeles' NFC franchise began the season tied for sixth-longest odds to win the upcoming Super Bowl. Now at 2-2, they are up to the 19th-shortest odds in the big-game market.

The Eagles are flying high at 4-0 SU (2-1-1 ATS), winning twice on the road and twice in Philly so far. Under quarterback Jalen Hurts, the offense is currently ranked fifth in the NFL in both scoring and yardage, which is no surprise when you see they lead the NFC in rushing at 165.25 YPG. In four contests this year, the Birds have won by an average margin of 7.0 PPG.

LAR is doing some positive things on offense, as well. Matthew Stafford has looked good after a missed season, as he currently has the second-highest passing clip (307.25 YPG) in the NFL. Still, in true Stafford fashion, he is also top-five in interceptions. This upcoming week against Philly will be Stafford's first game with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, so what will head coach Sean McVay have up his sleeve?

Best Bet: Eagles -4.5 (-105)

Despite the Rams turning heads in 2023, I still believe the Eagles to be the stronger side. ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI) concurs as Philadelphia ranks seventh league-wide with a 4.1 FPI; the Rams show up at No. 12 overall (0.3 FPI).

Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will install his ground attack with All-World defensive tackle Aaron Donald on his mind. The three-time AP NFL Defensive Player of Year is in his 10th season with the Rams; he is the only member of the roster who also played for the team in St. Louis.

Will Donald be able to take on Philadelphia's massive offensive line -- a unit ranked tops in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus -- with the same effectiveness?

The NFL game projections at numberFire have the Eagles winning on the road this weekend by a score of 28.76-24.39. That difference of 4.37 points is dangerously close to the spread of PHI -4.5, but with a slightly better payout (-105), I don't mind taking a chance on the undefeated reigning NFC champs. I am laying the points with the Birds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.