NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5: Can You Trust the Lions?

There aren't many more crucial things than nailing your NFL survivor picks, so we're here to help.

Based on numberFire's NFL survivor matrix, here are some of the best NFL survivor picks for Week 5.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 5

Miami Dolphins

For much of the early part of the season, this article has featured a lot of the same teams as the obvious top selections each week. Things are different for Week 5 as none of the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills sit among the week's three biggest favorites.

The week's largest favorite is the Miami Dolphins. Miami is a -520 moneyline favorite at home against the New York Giants. If you've watched either of these offenses this season, you know why Miami is a 10.5-point favorite. The Dolphins' offense has been explosive -- to say the least -- while Big Blue has the NFL's worst point differential (-76).

It's difficult to envision the Giants' D slowing down Miami's offense, and it's even harder to see how Daniel Jones and the Giants' offense could possibly keep pace with Tua Tagovailoa and company. In short, this is a really lopsided matchup.

Miami is a 10.5-point favorite -- biggest of the week by 2.0 points -- and given the Dolphins' early-season schedule, you probably haven't used them. They profile as the best pick this week, and they'll likely be the chalk selection.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions came into the year with plenty of hype, and they've mostly delivered. Detroit is off to a 3-1 start and just picked up an impressive road win over the Green Bay Packers. In Week 5, the Lions are -420 moneyline favorites -- second-biggest of the week -- and are firmly on the survivor radar thanks to a home date with the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers have been awful, especially with Bryce Young under center. Carolina hasn't won a game, and Young hasn't thrown for more than 204 yards in a single contest. He'll have a difficult task in front of him this week as he'll likely need to score plenty of points to keep up with the Lions' high-flying attack.

Detroit's offense ranks in the top 10 in both points and yards per play. Goff has been amazing at home, too, lighting it up at home last year to the tune of 23 scores and 3 picks, compared to just 6 tuddies and 4 interceptions on the road.

Per numberFire's model, the Lions have the week's best win odds (85.3%), and unlike Miami, there probably won't be many other weeks this year where we can feel great about choosing Detroit as our survivor pick. That makes the Lions a very intriguing selection in Week 5.

Contrarian Plays

Looking to avoid the most popular picks and find an under-the-radar selection for the week?

Washington Commanders

Until further notice, the team that plays the Chicago Bears is going to be worth a survivor look each week. For Week 5, that team is the Washington Commanders.

The soft Thursday matchup results in the Commanders being listed as -295 moneyline favorites, making Washington the week's third-largest favorite.

In addition to the Bears being miserable, Washington has some other things working in its favor -- namely that the Commanders are at home and this is a short week for the Bears. The Commanders just put up a nice performance in a road loss to the Eagles, and Washington is a 6.5-point favorite over Chicago.

There are obvious reasons for hesitancy, the biggest of which is that Washington isn't all that great. Plus, while Justin Fields is having a brutal season so far, we know he has the ability to be much better than what he's shown. For most of Week 4, he played pretty darn well.

Washington is a viable pick. I'm just not sure I have the stomach for it.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are a contrarian pick this week, and I feel better about them than I do Washington. But my feelings don't count for jack, and Buffalo -- listed at -230 on the moneyline -- isn't as big of a favorite as Washington is.

Buffalo will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a neutral-site game in London. Given how often the Jags play in London and that Jacksonville just played there last week, meaning they'll have the travel edge over Buffalo, the location of the game favors the Jags a bit.

With that said, Buffalo is the better team and is a 5.5-point favorite for a reason. The farther away we get from the Bills' Week 1 loss to the New York Jets, the crazier that result looks. The Bills have been lights out since that defeat and sport the league's top point differential (+84). They've won by 28, 34 and 28 points over the last three weeks.

Jacksonville has mostly underwhelmed so far this year. Two weeks ago, they got housed by 20 at home by the Houston Texans, and while the Jaguars bounced back last week in London with a 23-7 triumph over the Atlanta Falcons, Atlanta might have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.

There will be future weeks where the Bills are a bigger favorite -- including next week at home versus the Giants -- but without many overwhelming favorites this week, Buffalo is worth considering.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your