NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Justin Jefferson Can Pull Off a Repeat

Justin Jefferson is just on another level.

The superstar wide receiver has been on an unstoppable upwards trajectory since entering the league as a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. A year after putting his name in college football history books for his role in LSU’s record-setting 2019 season, he put together one of the most impressive rookie campaigns in recent memory.

For his efforts, he finished second that year in Offensive Rookie of the Year award voting and earned himself a spot on the Associated Press’ second-team All-Pro squad. He took a step forward in his second season on his way to earning another second-team All-Pro nod, and he somehow continued his ascension in his third season.

Jefferson’s third season as a pro was something else. The 23-year-old led the league in receptions and receiving yards, catching 128 passes for 1,809 yards and 8 touchdowns, and he finished fifth in the league in MVP votes for his efforts. He also took home the coveted Offensive Player of the Year award -- something he’s set up well to do again in 2023.

According to the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds , Jefferson (+1400) is the second-most likely player to win the award for the upcoming season. Only former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) has better odds as we head into the depths of the offseason, setting them up for a heated competition for the award this season.

Can Anyone Stop Justin Jefferson?

No receiver has ever put up more receiving yards in their first three seasons than Jefferson has.

Before Jefferson, fellow Vikings receiver and Hall of Famer Randy Moss held the previous record for most receiving yards in a player’s first three seasons with 4,163 yards. Jefferson has since shattered that record, posting an additional 662 yards on top of Moss’ already daunting record.

By the end of the 2023 season, there is a good chance we’ll be saying “no receiver has ever had more receiving yards in their first four seasons than Justin Jefferson has.” He’s just that good.

His 1,400-yard rookie season was impressive enough by its own merits, and he has totaled 1,616 and 1,809 yards in the two seasons since.

Jefferson has had 24 games with 100 or more receiving yards since he entered the league. He has played in only 50 regular season games, and 9 of his games with fewer than 100 yards came in his debut season. He’s practically a coin flip to break 100 receiving yards in any game he suits up for.

There really doesn’t seem to be anything in the way of Jefferson having another elite season in 2023.

The Vikings still have quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has supported high-volume passing offenses for most of his career. They’ll be running it back with offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell, who crafted the offense that led to Jefferson’s OPOY-winning 2022 season. And the team made relatively lateral moves at their other receiving positions, swapping out veteran Adam Thielen for first-round pick Jordan Addison while retaining the services of tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Perhaps the biggest move the Vikings made this offseason was the decision to part ways with former running back Dalvin Cook. That decision could signal the Vikings’ willingness to shift even further toward their aerial assault for the upcoming season, but it should also serve to make their offense more efficient.

As explosive as Cook has been in recent years, he was the fifth-least successful running back in the league last season when it came to generating positive expected points on any given rush attempt. When the Vikings needed a few yards to pick up a first down or punch in a touchdown, Cook just wasn’t reliable enough.

Unless Addison breaks out with a Jefferson-esque rookie campaign, we could argue Jefferson has an even better setup for the upcoming season than he did in 2022. Incremental improvements to the other components of the team’s offense should lead to a more efficient attack than we saw in the previous campaign, which could lead to more red-zone opportunities for Jefferson.

Also, the Vikings’ defense lost multiple veteran pieces in the offseason, which could put the team into more shootouts than they already experienced a season ago.

Is There Even Room to Go Up?

As outstanding as Jefferson’s 2022 season was, there is still one area he could stand to improve for the upcoming year: his touchdown production.

Jefferson has been arguably the best receiver in the league over the past few years, but he has yet to have a season with spiked touchdown production.

That could have happened last year, but Jefferson was uncharacteristically inefficient in the most important area of the field -- the red zone.

Jefferson tied Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce for the most targets in the league within the 10-yard line (19) but had difficulty converting those opportunities into scores. Where Kelce caught 13 of his 19 targets for 8 touchdowns in that area, Jefferson hauled in only 9 of his (47.4%) for 5 touchdowns.

Jefferson is a good enough player that it’s hard to imagine him not bouncing back from that lackluster red-zone performance. And given that 5 of his touchdowns came from those targets inside the 10-yard line, we can also extrapolate that Jeffersonly scored just 3 times from outside 10 yards, which was likely a flukey-low number.

That gives Jefferson another route to producing a high-score season -- converting big plays into touchdowns. It’s something we’ve seen him do before, too, as 4 of his 7 rookie season touchdowns came from further out than 10 yards, while 7 of his 10 sophomore season scores did, as well.

His lack of touchdowns on big plays actually looks like a bit of an outlier. Only Tyreek Hill had more plays of 20-plus receiving yards than Jefferson’s 17, but Jefferson somehow managed to score only once across all of those plays. Players like Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Davante Adams -- who finished with a similar number of explosive receiving plays as Jefferson did -- scored 5, 4 and 9 times on those plays respectively.

It makes sense that Jefferson could have an impressive season in the touchdowns category if he experiences some positive regression in either of those two methods of scoring -- off of big plays or on plays near the end zone. We could see a truly special season of scoring if he bounces back in both areas. A 20-touchdown season is a rarity in the NFL, but it seems possible for a player as talented as Jefferson.

Conclusion

Jefferson is well positioned to become the first back-to-back winner of the AP’s Offensive Player of the Year award since Marshall Faulk won it in three straight campaigns at the turn of the century. It’s worth pointing out that Jefferson also has +10000 odds to win the MVP award for the upcoming season, giving him the best odds in the league of any non-quarterback player.

His +1400 NFL Offensive Player of the Year betting odds rank second across the entire league, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase’s +1200 odds. Chase could take the next step into superstardom and win the OPOY award this year, but Jefferson doesn’t have to take any steps forward -- he’s already there.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.