NBA Play-In Tournament: Heat vs. 76ers Betting Picks

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The NBA Playoffs get under way on Tuesday with the Western Conference, followed by the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament tipping off Wednesday night.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat tangle at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The winner earns the 7 seed in the East and the right to face the New York Knicks in the first round.

Let's dive into the matchup and check out the betting odds for Heat-76ers on FanDuel Sportsbook.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Play-In Tournament Betting Picks

Heat-76ers Betting Odds

Date and Time: Wednesday, April 17th at 7 p.m. ET

Spread: 76ers -4.5 (-114)

Total: 207.0

Moneyline:

76ers: -196
Heat: +164

Heat vs. 76ers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

Miami Heat:
- nERD: 56.2 (T-15th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 113.2 (21st)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.1 (5th)
- Pace: 96.7 (29th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 40-40-2
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 30.4% (29th) - 61.2% (23rd)
  - Mid: 30.2% (28th) - 44.2% (14th)
  - 3PT: 39.4% (14th) - 37.0% (12th)
Philadelphia 76ers:
- nERD: 58.8 (10th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.0 (14th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.6 (11th)
- Pace: 98.1 (18th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 48-33-1
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 35.6% (9th) - 60.3% (27th)
  - Mid: 27.1% (21st) - 42.2% (16th)
  - 3PT: 37.3% (23rd) - 36.3% (18th)

Heat vs. 76ers Best Bet

Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 (-114)

Since Joel Embiid returned on April 2nd, the 76ers are a perfect 7-0.

Dating back one game further, Philly has won eight consecutive games by an average of 12.6 points. Of those eight wins, six came by at least five points, with the other two both coming by four.

One of those four-point wins came against the Heat in Miami. Philly's 109-105 win in that one evened the season series at 2-2, although Embiid was active for only the most recent matchup.

Tyrese Maxey cooked the Heat for 37 points in that Philly win, missing a triple-double by a single rebound. In four regular season meetings with the Heat, Maxey averaged 27.3 points and 8.3 assists per game on 45.2% shooting. For Wednesday's game, his points + assists prop is set at 30.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Still, for as good as Maxey's been against Miami, Philly's edge comes via their MVP, Embiid. With Embiid in the lineup this season, the Sixers are 31-8 with a +10.5 net rating. If you extrapolated that over the full season, they’d have the best record and second-best net rating in the NBA.

Miami's playoff prowess is well-known, so I get the reservation behind fading them against the spread. Still, even in last year's Cinderella run, Miami dropped their first play-in game by 11 points. As we all know, they rebounded to win the Eastern Conference, but they've since lost three of their top six postseason scorers -- Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Kyle Lowry -- from that squad.

Duncan Robinson and new addition Terry Rozier have stepped up in those absences, but both are dealing with injuries. An update on those two (along with Kevin Love) is expected on Tuesday.

Rozier is the big name to watch there, but even if he plays, I'm not sure Miami has an answer for Philly with an active Embiid.

This isn't your normal 7 seed. The Sixers have played like one of the best (if not the best) teams in the NBA with Embiid active. Now that he's back, they're just on a different level.

In a one-game, winner-take-all, I'll back the team with the best player on the floor to cover at home.

Get in on the action today! All customers get a No Sweat Same Game Parlay to use on any NBA Play-In Tournament game on April 16th! See the promotions page for full details.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.