NBA Central Division Best Bets: Bucks Rising with Lillard, Indiana Paces to Successful Season

Predicting NBA win totals is among the most popular future bets. With odds available for all 30 teams, there are bound to be terrific wagers available. Let's break down win totals by division, focusing today on the Eastern Conference's Central Division.

The Central Division improved in the 2022-23 season with three teams participating in the postseason -- the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Chicago Bulls. However, each team faltered when it mattered most.

The one-seeded Bucks were on the losing end of a shocking first-round upset against the No. 8 Miami Heat, who would advance to the NBA Finals. The Cavaliers fell in five games against the five-seeded New York Knicks. Center Jarrett Allen became a meme after admitting the "lights were brighter than expected." The Bulls failed to reach the playoffs after losing their second play-in game against the Heat.

Will the Central bounce back with a strong showing in the upcoming season? As a refresher, the Bucks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons form the division. Milwaukee is the talk of the town after landing Damian Lillard in a blockbuster trade:

Following the earth-shattering move, the Bucks are the overwhelming favorite to win the Central Division (-360). What does the trade mean for Milwaukee's win total, though? Let's check out the Bucks' win total and another favorable team led by emerging youngsters.

Milwaukee Bucks Under 56.5 Wins (-128)

Milwaukee surely had the most disappointing ending to their season in the division last season. The Bucks flourished with another exceptional regular season, finishing 58-24 while boasting the Eastern Conference's top seed. Before the postseason began, FanDuel Sportsbook had Milwaukee among the top-two favorites in their NBA Finals odds.

The Bucks fell flat on their face, becoming the fifth No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 8 seed in the first round of the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo-- the two-time MVP winner -- missed two games in the series due to a nagging back injury. This was a massive loss, for Antetokounmpo led the NBA with a 38.4% usage rate last season.

Still, Milwaukee was an overwhelming favorite against Miami for a reason. Losing two of three home games in the series only made it sting even more. Coach Mike Budenholzer received perhaps the most criticism on the team for his questionable decision-making. The Bucks agreed Budenholzer was a problem by firing the former title-winning coach.

The change at head coach was perhaps the top question for Milwaukee ahead of the 2023-24 season. Adrian Griffin is a first-time head coach after serving as an assistant with several teams -- most recently with the Toronto Raptors. However, the Bucks landing Damian Lillard changes everything.

Milwaukee is now the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals (+360). Surely, the Bucks should have one of the Association's top records in the upcoming season. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds, Milwaukee has a projected win total of 56.5. I'm not sure the Bucks be good enough to meet those sky-high expectations.

Lillard is a major addition, but the Bucks shipped Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen in the process. Perhaps, the over won't be as automatic as some might think.

No Jrue Equals Bad Voodoo?

The Bucks have reached the 50-win mark in four of their previous five seasons and eclipsed 56 wins twice in the last five years. Adding Lillard is certainly a big deal, and I don't want to underplay his excellence. He averaged a career-high 32.2 points per game (PPG) last season. Advanced metrics also support the 33-year-old guard is still an elite scorer as he led the league in offensive RAPTOR in the 2022-23 season.

Milwaukee's offense will be lethal with Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but will it make a major difference in the regular season? Holiday and Allen combined for over 29 PPG last season. These are not minor offensive losses; Holiday led the 2022-23 team in offensive rating, and Allen shot 39.9% on three-pointers.

Is Lillard an offensive upgrade, especially in the postseason? Absolutely. However, we cannot overlook the defensive ramifications. Lillard had a defensive rating of over 120 in his previous two seasons. For reference, the average team defensive rating was 114.8 last season. Dame can be a defensive liability, and he's directly replacing an elite defensive guard in Holiday.

Holiday's defensive rating has spiked in recent seasons, but he touts a career rating of 108.9. He was also second on the team among qualifying players in defensive rating last season. Holiday felt like an irreplaceable player in Milwaukee. Now, we will see how the Bucks will perform without one of the NBA's best two-way stars.

Jrue was also significantly more available than Dame has been lately. Holiday played 67 games each of the past two seasons, and Lillard has played just 87 total games in the past two seasons battling abdominal issues.

Following the Lillard trade, the Bucks have the highest projected win total. The second-highest total? The Boston Celtics at 54.5. The loss of Holiday cannot be overstated. The under looks like the favorable bet for Milwaukee.

Indiana Pacers Over 38.5 Wins (-110)

Prepare to see Milwaukee dominating NBA news nonstop until the regular season tips off. After acquiring Lillard, the Bucks will overshadow their counterparts in the Central Division, but don't sleep on the Indiana Pacers.

Indiana fell short of the Play-In Tournament last season, but they improved their win total from 25 to 35. The Pacers feature a blooming roster led by promising young players like Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin. Indiana could be in store for another leap with its win total at 38.5.

Of course, Haliburton, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard are young players that could continue to improve.

Haliburton earned his first All-Star appearance last season while averaging career-highs of 20.7 points and 10.4 assists. He nearly grabbed the assist champion title, but he was ineligible with 56 games played -- two short of the required 58 games. Haliburton also ranked an outstanding fifth in offensive RAPTOR.

Mathurin flourished in his rookie season with 16.7 points per game, finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He will look to improve his efficiency after posting a 48.7% effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Nembhard was a surprise contributor last season as a second-round rookie, averaging 9.5 points and 4.5 assists.

Indiana has the young core covered, especially after adding first-round rookie Jarace Walker -- whose impact we will get to. Alongside an emerging roster, the Pacers also improved their defense and bench.

Addressing the Dirty Work

Drafting Walker was one of the most important moves of the offseason. He was among the top defensive prospects in the class thanks to his exciting versatility. Finally, someone on the Pacers that can help Myles Turner on the defensive end. Indiana finished 23rd in defensive rating last season. With Walker's intriguing upside and Turner's shot-blocking, this unit should improve.

Bruce Brown Jr. was a major addition in the offseason that should bring a significant boost to Indiana's bench scoring. With the Denver Nuggets in the 2022-23 season, Brown led the bench in offensive rating. The Pacers' backcourt is scoring galore with Haliburton, Mathurin, Buddy Hield, Aaron Nesmith, and Brown.

Ultimately, Indiana is headed in the right direction after another impressive offseason. The Pacers are even landing in some playoff predictions, priced at +128 to make the postseason when looking at NBA playoff odds. We know Indiana has plenty of scoring talent after it ranked ninth in points per game last season, but the defense could improve with the addition of Walker and Obi Toppin, who still possesses defensive upside.

This team hit 35 wins last season; three more wins is certainly a manageable task. Look for the Pacers to surpass expectations by going over their win total.

Do you think you know which NBA teams will succeed or falter this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA win total odds market to bet any team's win total with America's Number One Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.