NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/9/24: Will Miami Burn the Birds in Atlanta?

Riley Thomas•_riley8

20d

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets

Over 223.0 (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks are rolling ahead of the postseason with a 9-1 record over the last 10 games. They've gotten it done on the defensive end, holding opponents to only 105.6 points per game (PPG) during the 10-game stretch. The under is also 8-2 during their hot streak.

The Charlotte Hornets' totals have been trending in a different direction, as the over is 7-3 over the past 10 contests. Will it be the over or the under that wins out in this one?

I'm leaning to the over thanks to Charlotte's recent production on offense. LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams will likely miss the remainder of the season, and without the two in the lineup, the Hornets' shooting drops to 52.6% on twos and 34.6% on threes.

However, Charlotte's three-point shooting is suddenly soaring. Over the last two games, the offense has logged 121.0 PPG while shooting 45.7% from three. Dallas' perimeter defense gives up the 13th-most three-point shots each contest. Even during the Mavs' sudden resurgence on defense, they've still allowed 38.0 three-point attempts per game over the last three (season average is 35.8).

Finding the route for the Hornets to score is likely the biggest concern for hitting the over. Charlotte's recent three-point shooting provides some comfort, and Dallas has the seventh-best offensive rating while the Hornets have the second-worst defensive rating.

The Mavericks should also be able to do their part. Charlotte has the sixth-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage and has allowed 37.0 three-point attempts per game over the last two. Dallas averages the second-most three-point makes and shots each contest.

Each three-point attack looks bound to thrive. Give me the over.

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Heat -4.0 (-112)
Heat Team Total Over 111.5 (-114)

The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are likely headed for the Play-In Tournament, which tips off on April 16th. Will Tuesday's collision be a preview of the postseason?

If it is, tonight's game will certainly be a lesser version as neither team will be healthy. Atlanta will be without Trae Young, who has been cleared for practice and hopes to return for the postseason. The Hawks' Saddiq Bey also suffered a season-ending injury. When Young and Bey are off of the court, Atlanta's three-point shooting surges from 36.6% to 39.4%.

However, the Hawks are shooting only 33.6% from three over the past three contests. The Heat also carry the eighth-best mark in opponent three-point percentage, and opponents have shot only 31.9% from beyond the arc over Miami's last five games.

The Heat have the ability to take away Atlanta's greatest strength without Young in the lineup. The Hawks have failed to cover three consecutive contests, further supporting Miami's side. The Heat are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last four, as well.

Miami has some of their own injury concerns with Terry Rozier questionable (neck). When Rozier (16.4 PPG) is not playing, the Heat's two-point percentage jumps from 52.5% (fourth-worst) to 55.3%. Atlanta has a weak interior defense, allowing the seventh-most points in the paint while carrying the fourth-worst mark in opponent two-point percentage.

The Hawks have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the Association. I like Miami's chances of reaching 112 points after they logged 117.0 PPG over their last two games. Various models have the Heat scoring over 111.5 points, too. Massey Ratings are projecting a 113-point scoring total while numberFire is at 115.6.

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Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.