NBA Betting Picks for Monday 3/4/24: Will the Thunder Strike Down the Lakers?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets

Over 207 (-112)

The Memphis Grizzlies still tout the NBA's worst offensive rating while totaling the fewest points per game (PPG) at 106.1. These numbers could only continue to fall with the several key players dealing with injuries, including Desmond Bane (24.4 PPG), Jaren Jackson Jr. (22.4 PPG), and Marcus Smart (14.5 PPG). All three players will likely be out tonight against the Brooklyn Nets as Bane and Smart continue to recover from injuries and Jackson is doubtful with a quad injury.

The Nets are also among the bottom offenses with the 11th-worst offensive rating while averaging 112.2 PPG (8th-worst). With two weak offenses meeting, a low total was a guarantee as it is set at 207. However, this feels extremely low -- perhaps too low for the under.

While each offense certainly touts a long list of concerns, I believe each unit could do enough for the over to hit. numberFire's daily game projections also have a strong four out of five star recommendation level for the over. Let's dig into the stats.

Brooklyn's offense has actually been producing at a high level over the last two games with 119.0 PPG while shooting 48.9% from the field and 47.4% from three. While Memphis boasts the 11th-best defensive rating, they have the 7th-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage and allow 13.2 made threes per game (14th-worst).

Cameron Johnson, whose points prop is set at 15.5 points, could be one player poised to flourish as he totaled 26.0 PPG over his last two contests while making 11 of 18 three-point attempts (61.1%). Johnson should have the opportunity to excel once again versus a weak perimeter defense.

The Grizzlies' offense is where things get tricky. Fortunately, the Nets have the 12th-worst defensive rating, giving Memphis ample chances to score. Three-point shooting could be one area to watch, for the Grizz total the 5th-most three-point shots while Brooklyn has the 6th-worst mark in opponent three-point percentage and give up 13.2 made threes per contest (13th-worst).

Both teams certainly struggle to score, but eclipsing 207 points feels in reach thanks to each squad's three-point shooting.

Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks -5 (-114)

The Milwaukee Bucks have been on a roll with five consecutive wins while going 5-0 against the spread. Giannis Antetokounmpo comes off another dominant performance (46 points) as he continues his historic pace with 30.8 PPG while shooting 61.9% from the field (he would be the first player to average 30.0 PPG while shooting 60.0%). Adrian Dantley holds the record with the highest field goal percentage (FG%) at 58.0% while averaging at least 30.0 PPG.

Despite Giannis' historic campaign, he is still on the outside looking in on the MVP award at +1400 when looking at FanDuel's NBA award odds. Antetokounmpo's durability has been one of his remarkable traits this season as he has missed only 2 of 61 games. However, he is in danger of missing tonight's anticipated clash against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Greek Freak is questionable with a left Achilles injury. With that said, there should be some hesitation for this pick with Antetokounmpo carrying a team-high 33.2% usage rate. Still, Giannis has managed to play in nearly every game this season, and for now, I'm banking on the Bucks' superstar to suit up.

Milwaukee took down Los Angeles twice in February, and Antetokounmpo averaged 44.5 PPG over the two contests. He's clearly been a matchup nightmare for the Clippers, who rank outside the top 10 in points in the paint allowed. Giannis takes 75.5% of his field goals within 10 feet of the basket while converting 71.2% of the looks.

The Bucks' perimeter defense also held up well in the last two head-to-head matchups with the Clippers converting only 34.8% of his their shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, L.A. shoots 38.9% from three on the season (third-best). This trend could continue as Milwaukee has given up only 94.8 PPG over their previous four contests.

Assuming that Giannis is able to go tonight, I like Milwaukee to cover at home.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers

Thunder Moneyline (-102)

Following Sunday's 118-110 win over the Phoenix Suns, the Oklahoma City Thunder now hold the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They are 7-1 outright and ATS over the previous eight contests and will continue their road trip on Monday against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers continue to be like a topsy-turvy ride, going every which way from long losing streaks to stacking impressive wins. Despite a 3-3 record over the last six, Los Angeles has been tabbed as a one-point favorite for tonight's collision. Frankly, the Thunder listed as underdogs feels like a grand slam.

OKC has the answers in the painted area, which is always key against the Lakers. L.A. totals the second-most points in the paint, and the Thunder's interior defense has been like a tightening python, allowing the fourth-fewest points in the paint while boasting the third-best mark in opponent two-point percentage.

The Thunder should hold a similar advantage on the other end of the court, for they total the seventh-most points in the paint with the fifth-best two-point percentage. The Lakers allow the 13th-most points in the paint (51.1) and have been shredded over the last three games with opponents totaling 63.3 points in the paint per game. Oklahoma City has also increased their paint production over their previous three with 57.3 points in the paint per contest.

With clear advantages around the rim and their ongoing hot streak, give me the Thunder to pull off the upset on the road.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You have a chance to get $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet wins—valid across all sports until March 11th! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.