NBA

NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/7/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/7/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic

Magic Team Total Over 108.5 (-108)
Gary Harris Over 1.5 Threes Made (-115)

The Orlando Magic's suffocating defense isn't the place to target overs, but Orlando's scoring outlook seems pretty solid today.

The visiting Chicago Bulls enter with the league's 11th-worst defensive rating (115.4) with upside to be worse. They give up the very most three-point attempts per game (37.9), and a hot night from the field could shatter this total.

Key analytical models are expecting a night above this mark from Orlando. numberFire expects 110.3 median points from the Magic, and Massey Ratings (111.0) and DRatings (111.0) have an extremely similar projection.

If Orlando has success from deep, Gary Harris is probably the closest thing the team has to a sniper. 69.6% of Harris' field-goal attempts come from three-point land, and the shooting guard has cashed 37.3% of his looks. Chicago gives up the most three-point attempts per game (3.7) to his position, too.

FanDuel Research's NBA projections are extremely optimistic for Harris tonight. They're projecting 2.1 made triples when 1.6 would show value against this number.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Over 15.5 Points and Assists (-113)

Who doesn't love a good revenge spot?

The Oklahoma City Thunder booted Tre Mann at the deadline to take a chance on Gordon Hayward, but the former has played significantly more for his new club than Hayward has in OKC. Mann starts at the two for the Charlotte Hornets, averaging 30.8 minutes per game. He's posted 11.2 points and 4.9 assists per game with Buzz City.

OKC's defense is solid, but they've been weakest defending shooting guards. They've allowed the 10th-most points and 9th-most assists to the position as Josh Giddey is...a work in progress on that end?

FDR's projections love this prop above any other I'll give you, expecting 14.0 points and 4.5 assists in 32.9 minutes during Sunday's revenge affair.

Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs +4 (-110)
Spurs ML (+152)

The Philadelphia 76ers opted to sit Joel Embiid tonight, and it could be a refresher of how valuable the 2022-23 NBA MVP is despite Denver Nuggets' fans wishes.

In medium-to-very-high-leverage situations, Philadelphia has a -7.3 net rating. Their net rating is +12.9 in games where Embiid was able to play. I've never seen such a stark gap betting the NBA for a half decade, and I don't believe oddsmakers adjust nearly enough.

Compare that to the San Antonio Spurs' -9.2 net rating when Victor Wembanyama is able to play, and we should get a competitive affair in "The Alamo City". The Spurs also have the added benefit of not having played yesterday and enjoying home court advantage.

Models love the Spurs at this number today. DRatings favors San Antonio to win outright 56.8% of the time, and Massey's 49.0% chance is still great value when getting four points.

Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets

Over 215.0 (-110)
Domantas Sabonis Over 19.5 Points (-106)
Cam Thomas Over 2.5 Threes (-115)

Consider me stumped on why this total is so low. Analytical models everywhere agree emphatically.

The Sacramento Kings could badly use a dub on the road facing the lowly Brooklyn Nets. Both teams sit in the bottom 12 of defensive rating, and the pace factors for Sacramento (14th) and Brooklyn (24th) aren't outliers by any means.

There's not really huge injury news here, either. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are good to go, and Brooklyn's potential absences -- Dorian Finney-Smith, Nicolas Claxton, and Dennis Schroder -- all help significantly more defensively than their key scorers. If anything, you'd adjust this total upwards.

Many of our math-driven friends have. numberFire (230.7), DRatings (227.1), and Massey (220.0) all tower over this line. Let's find some props then, shall we?

Turning back to the aforementioned Sabonis, I'm expecting a scoring binge without Nic Claxton today. In medium-to-very-high leverage, Brooklyn's 116.9 dRTG is poor, and they've allowed 5.0 putbacks per game, per PBPStats.com. Sabonis is projected for 19.8 points by FanDuel Research today.

On the other side, expect Cameron Thomas to continue to let triples fly. He's taken 7.3 per game this month, which is masked by an awful 22.7% make rate. I believe in him from deep in the long run, eclipsing 35.5% from downtown in consecutive seasons. The Kings also give up the ninth-most threes per game to shooting guards (3.5).

Cam averages 6.9 attempts per 36 minutes with Schroder off the floor; I'll take my chances he can cash three in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers

Timberwolves ML (+110)
Over 218.5 (-110)

This game means a boatload for both of these teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves would love to snatch the top West seed and need wins to hold off the Nuggets, and the Los Angeles Lakers still have a chance to avoid the Play-In Tournament.

The problem with this line? Minnesota is just better.

In games without Karl-Anthony Towns, the T-Wolves' +8.0 net rating is even better than their overall mark (+6.8). L.A. has a solid +3.7 net rating in games where all four key starters play, but it's just not at the same level of dominance.

numberFire still expects the Wolves to win 61.1% of the time on the road -- a sentiment that Massey (59.0%) echoes. I'd rather have the better team with stakes equal, but the total is worth a wager, too.

The Lakers are the NBA's best team for overs (54.4% rate) on the basis of their 4th-ranked pace and 14th-ranked defensive rating. That's a decent match for a Timberwolves team that's league-best defensive rating comes at the league's 10th-worst pace.

This below average total just might be a hair too low when averaging these two together. numberFire (227.5), DRatings (224.3), and Massey (225.5) are all well above this mark as both teams enter with their top scorers outside of KAT.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.