NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/28/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 4/28/24

It's time for the NBA Playoffs. Pressure-packed seven-game series await some of the game's brightest stars. There are seemingly endless markets to choose from on each game.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

Our favorite picks are to come, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub for other trending bets for all sports -- including basketball.

Without further delay, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Best Bets

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

Donte DiVincenzo Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Nicolas Batum Over 4.5 Points (-104)

The first game on Sunday is in Philly where the Philadelphia 76ers are looking to even their series with the New York Knicks at two. While liking them to do so, I'm pretty in line with both the spread and total here -- just as numberFire's model is. I'm sticking to a pair of props.

First, Donte DiVincenzo's combo prop stood out. There's absolutely volatility here as Tom Thibodeau has benched DiVincenzo in favor of Miles McBride in two of the three games thus far, but this is arguably an easy cash if DiVincenzo plays well enough to stay on the floor. In Game 2 as his only full load of minutes (37) thus far, the Villanova alum posted 25 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He averaged 26.8 PRA per 36 minutes this season.

This line truly just encompasses the chance he stays in the game, which appears to be directly connected to shooting. Donte was 5-for-17 combined from the field in games where McBride took minutes. With an efficient 58.0 eFG% for the year, FanDuel Research's NBA projections think he can, expecting 24.9 PRA in 34.0 minutes today.

Secondarily, Nicolas Batum is in the opposite situation. He's been spelling either Kelly Oubre or Tobias Harris late in games and has seen at least 26 minutes in every game of the series. This points prop is just so low because of his own reservation, shooting just 10 times in the series so far.

Nine of those attempts have come from deep, so I could have taken Batum Over 1.5 Threes (+150) for a larger payout, but that's also risking missing a putback or a foul on an attempt from deep being left behind, and Nico shoots 71.4% from the line. I prefer playing it safe with his points prop.

Either way, FDR is expecting 6.4 points and 1.5 threes from Batum in a reasonable 28.0 minutes played. This is a buy-low spot after a four-point effort in Game 3.

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks

Clippers +5.5 (-110)
Clippers ML (+180)

This series has been deemed over by many, but there is simply one reason -- an easily correctable one -- that the Los Angeles Clippers have fallen behind 2-1. One of the league's best shot-making teams has gone cold.

L.A. was ninth in eFG% this season (56.1%), but they've plummeted to a league-worst 45.6% over their last two games. That's not really excellent defense from the Dallas Mavericks, either. On three-point shots deemed open or wide open (min. four feet of space), the Clips are shooting just 31.6% in this span. They shot 38.4% on wide-open threes this season.

Kawhi Leonard's frigid 11-for-27 (40.7%) start from the field since returning hasn't helped matters. In short, if this Clippers team starts making shots, they could take control of the series as soon as tonight.

That's why most analytical models like numberFire (2.2 points), Massey Ratings (4.5 points), and DRatings (3.0 points) have this spread at a median tighter than 5.5 points. All three sites have a win probability for the Clips higher than these 35.7% implied odds, too.

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Under 216 (-108)

This was a brutal game to dissect, but I'm making a judgment call away from most models leaning toward the Milwaukee Bucks and the over here.

There's just no way the models are appropriately prepared for a Milwaukee squad missing both Damian Lillard (Achilles) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee). In just 370 minutes in medium-to-very-high-leverage situations, the Bucks' 112.4 offensive rating was dreadful. That would have ranked eighth-worst in the NBA, and now, we're adding in playoff intensity on defense from the Indiana Pacers.

Their 94.7 pace (possessions per 48 minutes) would have also ranked dead last in the NBA. That's why this total is so suppressed despite an average of 225.0 total points per game in the series so far. By the way, Lillard -- at 32.2 points per game -- has been a huge contributor to that, and his point total is already locked at zero.

With the Bucks slowing down the tempo and missing their two best shot creators, I believe this one gets ugly (for scoring purposes) quickly.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns

Suns ML (+100)
Kevin Durant Over 3.5 Assists (-115)

We saw the Los Angeles Lakers show some pride to avoid getting swept yesterday. Will the Phoenix Suns do the same?

numberFire thinks so, projecting the Suns to win 55.9% of the time. In 7 of the most 10 similar games in nF's database, the home team representing Phoenix came out on top. No player wants to head into the offseason getting broomed, and that checks out with general human tendencies in terms of urgency.

It's nearly impossible to mentally rectify a do-or-die regular season finale between these two teams ended with a 16-point win for Phoenix, yet the Minnesota Timberwolves have won three straight by 12-plus points.

Similar to the Clippers, you can tip your hat to Minnesota's defense a bit, but the Suns' 56.5 eFG% in the regular season has dipped to 51.1% in the playoffs. They had a 64.0 eFG% against Minnesota in the finale, so it's surprising another hasn't turned up in the series yet.

For a prop in this game, Kevin Durant's assist line is great value at FanDuel. It's at least -122 at all other major domestic books, and it should be much higher. K.D. has averaged 9.0 potential assists and 5.0 actual assists per game in the regular season, and his helpers have decreased as Phoenix's shooting percentage has.

Still, Durant has posted 6.7 potential assists against the T-Wolves' excellent D. Converting around the NBA average, this line should be closer to 4.5, and our projections agree. They have K.D. pegged for 4.9 median assists on Sunday, which would translate to roughly -258 odds for at least four of them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.