NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 11/11/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic

Magic +4 (-108)
Under 232.0 (-110)
Cole Anthony Under 13.5 Points (-125)

If the Orlando Magic win tonight, don't be surprised.

Orlando actually has a better net rating (+2.9) than the Milwaukee Bucks (-1.9) at this stage. With 79% of the tickets and handle at FanDuel Sportsbook, I'm guessing the public is feeling better about Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo dropping 54 points on Thursday against the Indiana Pacers, but Milwaukee still lost outright on the back of 9 turnovers from Giannis.

Even if Damian Lillard (calf) plays, it might hurt them. They've had a -9.9 net rating with Lillard on the floor in medium-to-high leverage situations. Orlando's fifth-best defensive rating in the NBA (106.8) isn't the best get-right spot, either. The Magic are also 6-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.

Therefore, I'll even sprinkle Magic ML (+146) in this spot fading the public. numberFire's model is keen on another Orlando under; they're 5-2-1 to the under this season, and the model projects that to hit 66.4% of the time at this number.

Even in a Magic triumph, I believe Cole Anthony is overvalued at this points prop. Markelle Fultz returned from injury on Thursday, and Anthony was held under 14 points for the first time in three games. He posted 7 points in just 23 minutes of action. Even in 24.0 projected minutes on Saturday, numberFire's model is projecting Cole for 12.1 points, leaving plenty of wiggle room to the under.

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics

Raptors +8 (-110)
Dennis Schröder Over 1.5 Threes (+114)

The coverin' Toronto Raptors might be at it again tonight against, arguably, the NBA's best team.

Toronto has covered five of their eight games this season, and they're getting eight tonight against the Boston Celtics. This number could climb, as well, with 63% of the tickets and handle on the home C's. Boston might just be a touch overvalued, failing to cover in five of their eight contests this season.

Both of these teams should be at full strength with Al Horford returning from a maintenance day. The difference here that could overcome the 10.0-point gap in net rating? Toronto has been off since Wednesday enjoying rest, and Boston just won a game on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets that was close enough to require full services from their starters.

With that rest gap in mind, I -- and numberFire's model -- will take the points. It's projecting a cover 53.2% of the time, so a rising number should open up more value throughout Saturday.

As for a prop in this one, how about a particularly odd revenge game from Dennis Schroder? Schroder had an ugly exit from Boston, and if he's any extra level of aggressive tonight, it could pay dividends. The C's are allowing the fourth-most threes per game to point guards (3.4), and I'm pretty stunned at the plus money behind Schroder cashing two of them.

He's taken 4.5 per game this month, but his make rate (27.8%) is well behind even his inefficient 32.9% three-point rate from last year with the Los Angeles Lakers. With some bad blood involved, there's no better time to argue regression is coming.

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Under 225.5 (-110)
Jalen Johnson Under 12.5 Points (-102)

The Miami Heat may well end up having the worst offense in the NBA with Tyler Herro out due to an ankle injury.

Without Herro on the floor in medium-to-high leverage situations, their offensive rating drops from 112.1 to 99.6. In addition to that, the Heat's defensive rating in that floor situation improves from 114.6 to 107.2. This is a massive decrease in expected points scored on both sides for a team that already plays at the league's ninth-slowest pace in the NBA.

Therefore, it could have been any team on the other side tonight and I'd have eyed the under, but the Atlanta Hawks' improving defense only makes the case stronger. Their 113.0 defensive rating to begin this year is much better than their 2022-23 effort (115.4).

numberFire's model is projecting the under to hit 59.0% of the time at this year, which correlates well with Heat +7 (-112), but this ugly team won't get hard-earned dollars from yours truly.

As for a prop, Jalen Johnson has been jumping out of the gym this season, but this scoring matchup could prove to be a difficult one for him. The Heat allow the sixth-fewest points per game to small forwards (19.5). This over could be a favorite of a bad process today; he's hit this mark in three straight with 21-for-37 (56.8%) shooting, but that's not sustainable -- especially against solid defenses.

nF has Johnson projected for 11.6 points in a full 30.2 minutes; I'd side with the under for significantly less juice than the over.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors

Cavaliers +4 (-108)
Evan Mobley Over 14.5 Points (-104)

Individual results in the NBA can get swept under the rug, but the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Golden State Warriors, 115-104, in Cleveland just six days ago, and now they're getting a key number of a one-possession game not even a week later?

I understand this game is now by the bay, but Golden State's -1.5 net rating at home has become +6.1 on the road this season. To this point, we've actually seen a negative home-road split for the Dubs, which I'm not expecting to stick. However, it does mean that we don't need to significantly bump them up at home to this point as we did last year.

I'm buying Cleveland even with Jarrett Allen just returning to limited minutes. In three games with Allen, their net rating in medium-to-high leverage situations (-2.0) has improved a bit from its -4.3 mark to begin the season. Plus, that's come with a 121.9 defensive rating against three solid opponents, and that won't stick with one of the league's best rim protectors finding his groove.

nF's model expects Cleveland to cover a four-point margin 59.4% of the time, and this number bumped from 3.5 to 4 this morning. It may be another line to wait on betting.

We can pair the Cavs' projected success with an obvious place to target Golden State -- inside. As has been the case for years, the Warriors are allowing the fourth-most points per game to centers (26.1), and with Allen limited to 25.0 minutes per game so far, that's been Evan Mobley's role for a while.

Mobley is averaging 17.3 points per 36 minutes thus far this season, and he's projected for 14.9 points by numberFire's model in 34.8 minutes. I'm not sure why his prop sits here in a good matchup, but I will take this chance under the public's eye; he's missed out on 15 points -- in some cases barely -- four times in his last five games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.