NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 1

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 1

Austin Swaim

Spread/Moneyline: Jets Moneyline (+124)

Total: Texans-Rams Under 43.5 Points (-115)

There are a ton of fun skill position players in this matchup, but this total has dropped from 45.5 in spots earlier this week to here for a reason. Two of the best pass rushes in the NFL will take aim at two offensive lines in chaos. The Houston Texans enter with Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s worst-ranked offensive line entering the new season, and left tackle Alaric Jackson isn't 100% for the Los Angeles Rams. These were two of the top 10 teams in pressure rate (per PFF) last year, so I'm expecting them both to control the line of scrimmage.

Player Prop: Joe Flacco Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Austan Kas

Spread/Moneyline: Giants +5.5 (-105)

Total: Raiders-Patriots Under 43.5 (-108)

It seems like the general vibe is that the New England Patriots are set to experience a sizable improvement this year due to hire of Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye taking a Year 2 leap. I'm not fully on board.

While Vrabel undoubtedly did well during his time in Tennessee, the Patriots' roster is one of the league's worst. The skill-position players -- especially wide receivers -- on both sides of this game are pretty blah, with the most exciting WR playmaker being a 31-year-old Stefon Diggs, who is coming off a serious knee injury and was already showing signs of decline. I think we'll get a run-heavy attack from both offenses and a game without many chunk plays.

Player Prop: Kyle Pitts Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Kenyatta Storin

Spread/Moneyline: Jaguars -3.5 (-115)

Total: Giants-Commanders Over 45.5 (-112)

This matchup projects to be one of the week's fastest in average pace, and both of the these teams finished in the bottom third in schedule-adjusted defense last season. Entering the season, PFF ranks the New York Giants' secondary 24th and the Washington Commanders' secondary 28th, so both teams should be able to put up points through the air. We already know Jayden Daniels and the Commanders will be great on offense in 2025, so we just need the Giants to be competent to get over this middle-of-the-road total.

Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter

Spread/Moneyline: Packers -2.5 (-104)

Total: Texans-Rams Under 43.5 (-115)

Player Prop: George Kittle 80+ Receiving Yards (+174)

Kittle enters 2025 as the de facto top option in the San Francisco 49ers' passing game with Deebo Samuel out of the picture and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined. Over the past two seasons, Kittle has played 14 games when at least one of those two played less than half the team's snaps. In those games, Kittle averaged 5.3 receptions and 85.4 receiving yards on a 22.1% target share. He cleared 80 yards in 9 of those 14 games -- good for a 64% hit rate, well above the 37% implied probability we get from his odds to record 80+ receiving yards on FanDuel.

Annie Nader

Spread/Moneyline: Rams -3.0 (-115)

Total: Giants-Commanders Over 45.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (+118)

Henry commanded a team-high 21.3% target share across Drake Maye's starts last season. The tight end exceeded 3.5 receptions in 8 of 11 games in this split, and I'm happy to back him to do just that on Sunday at +118 odds.

Despite adding Stefon Diggs and rookie Kyle Williams, New England's receiving room is still lacking. Maye figures to rely on his top connection from the jump. Plus, the Las Vegas Raiders coughed up the sixth-most targets and fifth-most catches to tight ends in 2024.

Riley Thomas

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -1.5 (-115)

Total: Bengals-Browns Over 47.5 (-115)

Player Prop: David Njoku 6+ Receptions (+130)

The Cincinnati Bengals allowed the most receptions (111) and second-most fantasy points per game (9.1) against tight ends in 2024. David Njoku thrived when Joe Flacco started from Week 13 to 17 in the 2023 season, providing four top-three weekly finishes in fantasy football during the split. After totaling 9.0 catches per game against Cincy in 2024 paired with 6.0 receptions per contest with Flacco under center in 2023, look for Njoku to thrive in Week 1.

Skyler Carlin

Spread/Moneyline: Jaguars -3.5 (-115)

Total: Buccaneers Over 24.5 Points (+102)

Player Prop: Emeka Egbuka 6+ Receptions (+118)

With injuries to Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, rookie first-round pick Emeka Egbuka should immediately become a focal point of the Buccaneers' aerial attack. In Week 1, Egbuka will face an Atlanta Falcons squad that coughed up the fourth-most receptions (230) and second-highest catch over expected (+4.3%) to WRs in 2024, according to Next Gen Stats.

Jim Sannes

Spread/Moneyline: Dolphins' Moneyline (-108)

As bad as the Miami Dolphins' vibes are, do we know if the Indianapolis Colts' are any better? The Dolphins are the better team on paper as my model has them favored by around a field goal, so I'm comfortable with this pick 'em moneyline at -108.

Total: Giants-Commanders Over 45.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Josh Allen Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+100)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.