NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 10/29/23

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder +4 (-114)
Luguentz Dort Over 12.5 Points (-110)

We'll get a quick glimpse into whether or not the Oklahoma City Thunder are legitimate tonight against the reigning champions at home.

OKC's +10.7 net rating is third in the NBA thus far and ahead of the Denver Nuggets (+8.6), and you can't say they've just crushed cans with the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers both making at least the play-in tournament a year ago. Chet Holmgren is just what the doctor ordered for last year's interior defense; he blocked seven shots on Friday and could be an intriguing matchup for Nikola Jokic in this one.

Denver dominated in their opener, but they were lucky to escape the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday and didn't cover. Jokic had nine turnovers and a mediocre 66.1% true-shooting percentage (TS%) by his standard. Long term, I see a massive step back for the Nuggets this season because their depth is a challenge, and their -10.3 net rating with Jokic sitting thus far hasn't quelled those concerns.

numberFire's model actually expects the Thunder to win this game 50.2% of the time as the underdog, so Thunder ML (+144) is on the table here, too.

As for a prop here, Luguentz Dort caught my eye. Some might classify this as "chasing" his 25 points from Friday's game, but Dort actually just sets up well to score against the Nuggs. Denver has allowed the 10th-most points in the paint per game this year (51.0), and Dort leads OKC in paint touches per game (3.0) to this stage. He also logged 39 minutes on Friday, and playoff-level court time doesn't hurt this prop, either.

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks

Trae Young Under 25.5 Points (-115)

numberFire's model also expects the under to hit 58.1% of the time in this contest, so we probably don't want to go bananas at the elevated player props in this game expecting 238.5 total points.

Trae Young popped out as an obvious starting spot for me. The prolific shooter will have a far tougher matchup -- at first glance -- than he did a year ago with the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Under Mike Budenholzer last season, the Bucks were a three-point funnel, allowing the 11th-most threes per game (34.1) last year.

While the raw number was higher in a one-game sample (35.0), they're allowing just the 14th-most this year, and this season, I'm expecting Adrian Griffin to have them closer to the Toronto Raptors team that allowed the sixth-fewest attempts from deep in the NBA (32.6).

If Young can't score from the outside, we know Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo are a challenge for any guard on the interior. nF's player projections have Young's median total for points at just 24.3 points, giving a little wiggle room compared to the 26 required for this over to hit.

Alternatively, Trae Young Under 2.5 Threes (-158) makes sense as a parlay piece, but to me, the heavy juice to fade one of the league's best shooters isn't ideal as a straight bet.

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings

Over 235.0 (-112)

Is this the spot where the Los Angeles Lakers finally get right?

LeBron James had to ditch his minute restriction just two games into the season because L.A. couldn't win on Thursday without his interior scoring. It's not through a lack of quality offense; the Lakers have just simply failed to shoot the basketball at a rate we know they're capable of doing.

L.A. has the second-worst make rate on open threes this season (28.6%), and their 52.9 TS% is sixth-worst in the NBA as a team. Eventually, the open shots will start falling and the offensive explosion -- in a single night -- will be pretty stunning to those paying less attention.

The Sacramento Kings could help. To no surprise with minimal roster changes, the Kings' 112.9 defensive rating is 11th-worst in the NBA thus far, and they were a bottom-10 club last year. The key obstacle to this over is the Lakers' stellar defense (107.0 rating), but the amount of possessions here should do the heavy lifting.

In terms of pace, L.A. is 10th-best on the year (101.7). That's surprising to me for an older roster. It's less surprising that Sacramento is third (106.9) with all of their dynamic transition players.

numberFire's model expects this over to hit 59.9% of the time, but these odds imply just a 52.4% chance.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers -9.5 (-108)
Victor Wembanyama Over 6.5 Rebounds (-111)

FanDuel Sportsbook shows splits of ticket and handle dispersion for every NBA game, and it appears that the public believes in the Victor Wembanyama-led San Antonio Spurs tonight. Or, perhaps, they're fading the Los Angeles Clippers.

Either way, I don't think it's quite justified. San Antonio isn't quite a perfect matchup to replicate the formula that the Utah Jazz used to upset the Clips on Friday, and this 9.5-point spread is evidence of that.

Now, don't get me wrong, L.A. has one true weakness -- defensive rebounding. Their 61.7% defensive rebounding rate is dead last in the NBA, and Utah used 17 offensive boards to squash them. The Spurs' 48.8% rebounding rate is below average themselves, so I'm not certain they'll bully the Clippers inside to that extent on Sunday.

When taking that element out of the equation on a per-100-possession basis, L.A. (+5.0 net rating) is one of the best teams in the league, and the rebuilding Spurs (-1.4) aren't. That's likely why numberFire's model expects the Clippers to cover the spread 58.4% of the time, so beware of this trendy 'dog.

If you still want to root for the French rookie sensation, I'd use the info we just covered to take his rebounding prop. Wenbanyama has 17 rebounds in two games, and he's accrued 26 rebounding chances in that time. Obviously, the Clippers cede quality chances, but more than anything, L.A.'s propensity to play small could mean more Tre Jones in place of Zach Collins tonight, and Wembanyama's rebounding expectations should soar if he's the only seven-footer on the floor.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.