NBA Betting: 3 Win Totals to Target

The NBA is over a month into the 2023-24 season. So far, most of the expected title contenders have performed well, such as Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets. However, not everything has gone as expected.

There have been many surprises thus far, including the Orlando Magic's hot start at 13-5. The Minnesota Timberwolves hold the Western Conference's No. 1 seed at 14-4 and are +1400 to win the West when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA conference odds. Minnesota potentially becoming a serious contender is something most did not see coming.

Not everything has been pleasant surprises, though. For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers (10-9), the Golden State Warriors (9-10), and the Los Angeles Clippers (8-10) have gotten off to rocky starts after coming into the season with playoff expectations.

Of course, the various surprises have caused shifts in FanDuel's NBA win total odds. What are some favorable win total odds about one month into the regular season? Here are three win totals to target.

New Orleans Pelicans Over 42.5 Wins (-102)

The New Orleans Pelicans have gotten off to a slow start at 10-9 but have playoff upside with FanDuel's NBA playoff odds listing New Orleans at -108 to make the postseason. Through 19 games, the Pelicans have the NBA's 13th-worst offensive rating and 10th-best defensive rating.

New Orleans currently has a 52.3% win percentage, which puts them on pace for about 43 wins. That would be good for the over. When looking at the Pelicans' remaining schedule, the over looks like a great pick. According to Tankathon, New Orleans has fourth-easiest remaining schedule.

The Pels are 6-3 over their last 9 games, including wins over the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, and Los Angeles Clippers. Zion Williamson, who leads the team with a 30.5% usage rate, has hit his stride with 28.0 points per game (PPG) and a 63.7% field goal percentage (FG%) over his previous six games.

Assuming Zion stays healthy, I like New Orleans' chances of hitting the over. They have a favorable remaining schedule, the defense has been solid, and the offense should only get better with Williamson's dominant play. The Pelicans have even gotten surprise contributions -- such as 13.5 PPG from rookie Jordan Hawkins.

Charlotte Hornets Under 28.5 Wins (-108)

The Charlotte Hornets hold a 35.3% win percentage at 6-11, putting them on pace for about 29 wins. However, the Hornets have the seventh-most difficult schedule remaining. This includes two matchups with the Celtics, two with the Minnesota Timberwolves, two with the Denver Nuggets, three with the Milwaukee Bucks, and four with the 76ers. Sheesh; good luck to Charlotte.

The Hornets have the 12th-worst offensive rating and worst defensive rating in the Association. The defense is giving up 122.1 PPG (fifth-worst), allows the fourth-worst opponent 56.9% effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and the seventh-worst mark in points in the paint allowed per game.

This defense could get absolutely shredded against upcoming superior opponents, such as the 76ers (second-best offensive rating) and the Bucks (sixth-best offensive rating).

Even the offense has lacked efficiency with the ninth-worst eFG%. Charlotte already has the fourth-worst mark in average score margin (-8.5); what happens when the schedule gets more difficult?

The moral of the story is the Hornets have not been good, and the schedule is only going to get tougher. They are barely on pace for the over of 28.5 wins. Give me the under for Charlotte's win total.

Minnesota Timberwolves Over 51.5 Wins (-105)

As previously mentioned, the Timberwolves have been one of the early-season success stories. They are led by the league's top defensive rating, holding opponents to 105.3 PPG and a 49.1% eFG% (both marks are the best in the league).

By nearly all accounts, this has been an elite defense. The perimeter defense could be the only potential problem, for the T-Wolves give up 34.9 three-point attempts per game (15th-best). Rudy Gobert (107.8 defensive rating) and Karl-Anthony Towns (106.3 defensive rating) have formed an elite interior defense.

Towns has also returned to form with 21.8 PPG and 9.1 rebounds per game (RPG). This is key if Minnesota is to make a deep postseason run. They are currently a near-lock to make the postseason at -1200 but are still +1400 to win the West. This will surely come down if the Wolves continue this level of success.

Perhaps the most encouraging trend has been Anthony Edwards taking the next step by averaging 26.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 5.0 assists per game (APG). Edwards could sneak into the MVP conversation if his point total increases; FanDuel's NBA MVP odds have him at +3000 to win the award.

As you can probably tell, I'm a believer in Minnesota. I've officially bought in -- mainly due to the elite defense and Edwards' play. Their 77.8% win percentage puts them on pace for about 64 wins. Will the Timberwolves continue at this rate for the entire season? Probably not; injuries and cold streaks are bound to happen.

Still, Minnesota could have enough to go over 51.5 wins. They have the second-easiest schedule remaining.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.