NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250

The race up front in Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race is going to be a thrill.

In addition to series regulars -- and road-course aces -- in AJ Allmendinger and Shane Van Gisbergen, Ty Gibbs will join the fray this weekend. Gibbs is a four-time Xfinity Series winner on road courses, meaning we're going to see a sweet battle for the win.

That's good for us as viewers but bad for us as bettors.

With three studs at the top, they're going to suck up a lot of win equity. But sportsbooks know that, so we're not going to get them at long betting odds. That makes it tough to find quality bets elsewhere.

That's the case this weekend. Gibbs, Allmendinger, and SVG are all +300 or shorter in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds for the Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250, but none of them are above 25% in my win sims. Thus, if I'm betting them, it'll be after qualifying.

Here's where those three -- and the rest of the field -- shake out before practice.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 5
A.J. Allmendinger16.2%43.3%61.5%
Ty Gibbs15.0%40.0%58.3%
Shane Van Gisbergen14.2%39.5%58.3%
Justin Allgaier7.8%23.8%38.3%
Sam Mayer6.9%20.6%34.4%
Austin Hill5.6%17.4%29.9%
Sheldon Creed5.8%16.4%28.8%
View Full Table

Allmendinger holds the edge thanks to his longer record of dominance in this series, but the separation between the three is minimal. They're going to be a delight to watch.

As far as where the betting value lies, the drivers who stand out relative to their implied odds are John Hunter Nemechek (+3000), Riley Herbst (+5000), and Sammy Smith (+5000). Of those three, Nemechek has flashed the best upside, followed by Smith, so they'd be fine options.

But the biggest value is even lower in the order.

That's on Ed Jones at +30000.

Jones is a former IndyCar driver who also runs in the IMSA Sportscar series. Those IMSA cars are very similar to to the bodies in NASCAR, so he's more experienced than you'd think for a guy with just three starts in NASCAR's upper three series.

One of those was last week in Portland. There, Jones benefited from late-race chaos to pull off a top-five finish. He didn't light it up in either practice or qualifying, and his average running position was just 15th, so he definitely got lucky. But there was enough speed to take advantage of the chaos.

My model has Jones at 1.2% to win, up from 0.3% implied. As always, longshots are longshots for a reason, and even if my model is right, this bet loses 99% of the time. It's always important to keep that in mind.

But if you're looking for a value bet to win this week, it does look like Jones is the best option.


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Which drivers stand out to you on Saturday in Sonoma? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.