PGA Championship Longshot Picks: 4 Sleepers Who Can Win This Week

PGA Championship Longshot Picks at a Glance

• Russell Henley +6000
• Rickie Fowler +5500
• Patrick Cantlay +4000

The PGA Championship field is loaded at the top, with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young all playing at an elite level.

But upsets happen, and Aronimink’s unique setup — a par-70 Donald Ross design with 174 bunkers, push-up greens, and demanding approach angles that the entire field is navigating for the first time in a major — creates the kind of uncertainty that gives longshots a genuine path to contention.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler enters as the favorite, but the wide-open nature of a venue with virtually no major championship history for any player in the field makes this a place where we could see a surprise.

With that in mind, using the PGA Championship odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the best longshots for this week.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Longshot Picks for the 2026 PGA Championship

Russell Henley to Win (+6000)

There is a version of Russell Henley that doesn't get a major for his entire career because he simply does not hit it far enough in a sport that has become increasingly dominated by distance off the tee. And then there is the version of Henley that may show up at Aronimink this week: a precision ball-striker with elite putting who has quietly become one of the most consistent major championship performers in the field. In five of his last seven majors, Henley has finished inside the top 10 — a stretch that includes a T3 at this year’s Masters where he finished just two shots behind Rory McIlroy.

The statistical case is compelling across the board. Henley ranks 17th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and fifth in bogey avoidance, a combination that plays directly into what Aronimink demands. His approach game sits in the top 50 on tour (SG:APP of +0.313), and his overall SG:Total of 1.087 ranks 19th — elite company. While he ranks outside the top 140 in driving distance, Aronimink does not have the same length premium as recent PGA Championship venues, and the Gil Hanse restoration specifically returned the course to a layout where positional accuracy and iron precision matter more than raw power.

Henley has historically thrived on courses that reward ball control, controlled shot shape, and green-reading. At +5000, the market is pricing in his distance deficit far too aggressively given how well the rest of his profile lines up with this week’s test. Among the true longshot candidates in this field, he offers one of the clearest statistical and course-fit arguments.

Patrick Cantlay to Win (+4000)

Patrick Cantlay is quietly coming off four straight top-12 finishes — a stretch that includes results at the Valspar Championship, the Masters, and the RBC Heritage — which represents the most consistent four-tournament run he has posted in years. His ball-striking has returned to the elite level that defined his prime, and his mid-Atlantic pedigree is a real factor: two of the more recent times Cantlay competed in the region, he finished fourth at the 2025 Truist Championship at Philadelphia Cricket Club and won the 2022 BMW Championship at Caves Valley in Maryland.

From a course-fit standpoint, Cantlay profiles well at Aronimink. He ranks among the best in the field in iron play and short game, two skills this venue rewards. His above-average putting on bentgrass — the surface Aronimink's greens feature — is another relevant variable, as the fast, undulating green complexes here will likely elevate putting to a critical differentiator. His scoring average in major championships since 2023 ranks among the top 15 players in this field, a figure that does not get the attention it deserves given how often he is dismissed as a non-contender on the biggest stages.

The fair criticism of Cantlay is that his putting has been below his standard for much of 2026 (ranking 110th in SG:Putting entering the week), and that he has not won since 2022. Both are legitimate concerns. But a player of his caliber who is red-hot warrants attention at a number this long.

Rickie Fowler to Win (+5500)

Rickie Fowler is 37 years old and still searching for a major championship. That narrative has followed him for over a decade. What the market may be underweighting is that Fowler is playing the best golf he has since his peak years, and Aronimink is a venue where his particular skill set has historically shown up well.

Fowler has posted three consecutive top-10 finishes — at the RBC Heritage, the Cadillac Championship, and the Truist Championship, where he had a chance to win on Sunday before ultimately finishing in the top five. His putter, which was the weakest part of his game through a difficult mid-career stretch, is currently as good as it has been since 2019, when he was one of the best putters in the world. He ranks 20th on tour in putting this season and 19th in driving accuracy at 63.2%, a figure that becomes a genuine weapon on a course whose Gil Hanse restoration specifically rewards precise driving over power. The 174 bunkers and diagonal fairway hazards at Aronimink punish aggressive, imprecise driving — the kind of course where Fowler’s accuracy advantage is maximized relative to longer but wilder hitters in the field.

His last PGA Tour victory came at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross design, which is the same architectural pedigree as Aronimink. He also posted a T8 at the 2018 BMW Championship here, the most recent PGA Tour event played at this venue. There is an argument that Fowler is in the best form of his second act and on a course that historically suits him. That appeals to me at +5500.

Alex Fitzpatrick to Win (+10000)

Alex Fitzpatrick is the younger brother of Matt Fitzpatrick, who enters this week as one of the pre-tournament favorites. The younger Fitzpatrick is no longer just a promising name — he is emerging as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour right now, and his recent form is as hot as anyone in the field not named Cameron Young.

Fitzpatrick won on the DP World Tour at the Hero Indian Open this year before teaming with his brother to win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He then finished ninth at the Cadillac Championship while gaining nearly eight strokes tee-to-green for the week — a staggering figure against a Signature Event field.

In his most recent start at the Truist Championship, he gained nearly nine strokes on approach, finishing fourth and confirming that the elite iron play is not a one-week anomaly. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers over the past two months rank among the best in the world, and Aronimink is an approach-game golf course.

Is Alex likely due to slow down at some point? Yes. But it's rare that you can get someone who is striking the ball at an elite level at these kind of odds.

Golf Betting FAQ

What does it mean to bet on a golfer to win outright?

An outright winner bet — sometimes called a "to win" bet — is a wager on a specific golfer to finish first in the tournament. Because golf fields typically range from 70 to 156 players, winning outright is difficult, which is why odds for most players are expressed as large positive numbers (e.g., +1200 or +5000). A $100 wager on a +1200 golfer would return $1,200 in profit if that player wins.

What is a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 finish bet?

Finish position bets let you wager on a golfer to finish within a specified range on the final leaderboard, regardless of whether they win. A Top 10 bet pays out if the player finishes anywhere from first through 10th place. Odds are naturally shorter than outright markets to reflect the higher likelihood of success — a player might be +1200 to win but only +200 to finish Top 10.

How does a make/miss the cut bet work?

Most professional golf tournaments feature a 36-hole cut, trimming the field halfway through the tourney; the exact number of golfers who make the cut varies by event. A make/miss the cut bet is a simple two-way wager on whether a specific golfer will survive that cut and play the weekend.

What is a head-to-head matchup bet in golf?

A head-to-head matchup bet pairs two golfers against each other for the full tournament or for a single round, with the bet paying out based on which player finishes higher on the leaderboard.

What is a first-round leader bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will post the lowest score in the first round (usually on Thursday). First-round leader bets tend to carry large odds given the size of the field and the variance of one-day results.

How do strokes gained statistics help with golf betting?

Strokes gained (SG) is the foundational analytical framework for modern golf handicapping. Rather than measuring raw statistics like fairways hit or greens in regulation, strokes gained measures how much better or worse a player performs relative to the field average on each shot. The four key categories are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG:OTT), Approach (SG:APP), Around the Green (SG:ARG), and Putting (SG:PUTT).

Why does course fit matter in golf betting?

Unlike team sports with a consistent playing environment, every golf course demands a different skill set. If an event is being held at a courses previously visited by the PGA Tour, that allow bettors to examine historical performance data — which players have gained strokes and contended at that venue in the past. Some golfers tend to perform better -- or struggle -- at certain course types.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.