NASCAR

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Hy-Vee Perks 250

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Hy-Vee Perks 250

There are two drivers who are quality values for me in Saturday's Hy-Vee Perks 250. I agree with the model on both -- but the route to getting to each is very different.

In a circuit like the Xfinity Series, accounting for a driver's equipment is paramount. You see more week-on-week turnover with who's driving which car, so if you just grade a driver based on his past results, you're gonna whiff hard.

My model attempts to do this. That's why I'm surprised it's backing one driver with unquestioned talent and another in a top-tier ride.

Let's dig into what the model is seeing prior to practice and qualifying. Here's the full run of sims right now. The "Gase Generic" row is a filler for Joey Gase Motorsports equipment until they announce which driver will be in that car.

Driver
Win
Podium
Top 5
John Hunter Nemechek13.8%35.1%51.7%
Cole Custer13.6%35.0%51.6%
Chandler Smith10.6%28.9%44.6%
Justin Allgaier8.2%24.3%38.9%
Ross Chastain7.8%22.3%35.8%
Sheldon Creed7.0%20.9%33.0%
Sam Mayer5.3%17.7%30.5%
View Full Table

The top four in my model are the same top four as in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds; they're just all overvalued, at least according to the model. With this being the first time the Xfinity Series has been to the track since 2019 -- and with a repave in between -- it's tough to back drivers at such short numbers.

Just behind those top four, though, are our two primary values: Ross Chastain (+3000) and Sheldon Creed (+2000).

Chastain is there due to his skill, not his equipment. He's driving for DGM Racing, a team with just one top-10 finish this year.

This isn't uncharted territory for Chastain. He ran seven races for this team last year and three the year before. He still managed a pair of top-five runs, though both of them came on road courses.

This is the first time Chastain has driven for DGM on a short track where equipment matters a bit less. It's a short track where Chastain twice finished top five for another lower-tier team (JD Motorsports) before he had his breakout in the Cup Series. He also won here in the Craftsman Truck Series for Niece Motorsports, which is more of a mid-tier team, though he was later disqualified.

This isn't the toughest field with only one other full-time Cup driver (John Hunter Nemechek) set to start. I don't think the model is out over its skis in putting Chastain's win odds at 7.8%, which is a good chunk above his 3.2% implied odds.

If you're not convinced Chastain can overcome his equipment, then I'd like to pitch you on Creed. Creed drives for Joe Gibbs Racing, the fastest team in the garage. We won't have to squint to see upside for the team that won the first three races this year on short, flat tracks.

Creed didn't win any of those races, but he has come close on similar tracks. He was runner-up in both Martinsville and Phoenix while driving for Richard Childress Racing last year, and he had a third-place average running position this year in Martinsville.

Creed is still looking for his first Xfinity win, but that has come with a whopping nine runner-up finishes. He finished sixth in his lone Iowa race in the Truck Series, and I agree with the model that his win odds should be higher than the 4.8% implied by the market.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.