NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks: Charlotte Spring Race

We've got ourselves a bit of a pickle in the NASCAR Xfinity Series this week.

The field is absolutely loaded. Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Ty Gibbs join all the regulars, making it likely the stiffest competition these drivers have faced all year.

My model respects those drivers and allocates them plenty of win equity. But it's still not as high on them as FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

Unfortunately, with a lot of that win juice tied up at the top, it's hard to get enthusiastic about others. You both need those studs to slip up and to correctly identify who takes advantage.

So, with that in mind, here's what my win sims have for Charlotte prior to practice and qualifying.

With Busch, Gibbs, and Elliott sitting at +250, +350, and +700 at FanDuel, I don't show value in any of them. Thus, we sink a bit lower on the pole.

But even there, not many drivers are popping. The driver with the highest win odds who grades out as a value at FanDuel for me is Riley Herbst.

Herbst is +2500, and FanDuel's higher on him than some other places are. I'm even higher than them because Herbst has had a top-six average running position in four straight races on 1.5-mile tracks, including his first career win in Las Vegas.

Herbst is a lot easier to stomach at +3000, and I'm only a bit above implied on him (4.4% versus 3.8%). Thus, even though I agree with the model, I'd like more wiggle room in order to bet it.

The driver the model is highest on relative to market is Brandon Jones at +6000. Jones has his flaws, but he has run better than his finishes would indicate recently. He had a top-nine average running position in both Texas and Darlington, though he slid to finishes of 13th and 10th, respectively.

Of Jones' five Xfinity Series wins, two have come in Kansas, another 1.5-mile track. He beat drivers who went on to be Cup Series regulars in both of those, so he can top a tough field.

Thus, if forced to bet prior to practice and qualifying, Jones would be my preferred route. It's just important to keep in mind that longshots are longshots for a reason, and Jones will need to hit the high end of his range of outcomes to top a field this good.

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Which driver stands out to you on Saturday in Charlotte? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.