NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: YellaWood 500

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's YellaWood 500 from Talladega Superspeedway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

This is Talladega, which rings with a certain tone to all NASCAR fans. It's large, different, and exciting.

Of course, this 2.66-mile drafting oval was home to a hit comedy movie, and certain playoff drivers will be hoping to "Shake and Bake" their way to an automatic berth into the next round.

There will be no practice at a drafting oval (per usual), and the ultra-important qualifying session will happen on Saturday. Starting positions basically translate to DFS viability.

Over the years, we've seen this track transform from a constant shuffle to a track-position oriented race. Teams and manufacturers work together more now than ever. While variability in strategy and accidents shuffle the field, it's not exactly simple to drive through the field like a prior era here.

That's slightly modified how we approach this weekend.

General Lineup Strategy

We clearly have a lean toward stacking the back at these tracks because of the accident rates here. In the spring race, 8 of the top-15 finishers started outside of the top-20 spots after some late-race mayhem. That number was five in this race a year ago.

Laps led typically haven't been highly concentrated at these tracks, either. Ryan Blaney led 47 laps to pace the field in April, and Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain were tied with 36 laps led in last year's YellaWood 500. Laps led are more concentrated at the narrower drafting ovals like Daytona and Atlanta than Talladega, which can fit six or seven side-by-side cars across its massive surface.

Teammate structure is becoming an increasing factor to building tournament lineups, as well. In April here, four of the top-five finishers were Fords. At Daytona last month, teammates Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski stayed glued nose-to-tail to finish in the top-two spots. That's why you'll see my rankings are much more groupings of team cars than individual driver ranks entering this one.

With all of this in mind, we'll want fast cars and drivers starting as far toward the back as possible above all, which obviously makes ranking them before the weekend a bit problematic.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

• 2023 Talladega (Fall) - 30.0%
• 2023 Daytona (Spring) - 25.0%
• 2023 Daytona (Fall) - 25.0%
• 2023 Atlanta (Spring) - 10.0%
• 2023 Atlanta (Fall) - 10.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Ford has largely dominated every drafting track on the circuit this year, so it's hard not to put them at the top.

That becomes abundantly evident when Ryan Blaney ($14,000) and Joey Logano ($12,500) are at the top of the salary pool as the favorites to win what's largely a crapshoot. Blaney has the best average finish on superspeedways among active drivers with at least five starts since the beginning of 2020 (11.1), and Logano is a three-time Talladega winner.

As mentioned, Brad Keselowski ($13,500) and Chris Buescher ($13,000) found victory lane as a tandem last month at Daytona, but the two were also in contention late for the win in this year's Daytona 500. Keselowski has yet to win for his own race team at RFK Racing, but he's been knocking on the door all season and is a six-time Talladega winner, coming as recently as 2021.

Penske's Austin Cindric ($7,500) and the Stewart-Haas Racing brigade of Kevin Harvick ($9,000), Aric Almirola ($7,200), Chase Briscoe ($6,000), and Ryan Preece ($5,000) are your value plugs with a Ford build, and they've all shown a capacity to work willingly with one another. Almirola trailed Keselowski and Buescher at Daytona last month.

Just by sheer numbers, I'd put Chevrolet as the second-highest-rated manufacturer entering the weekend. Of course, Kyle Busch ($10,000) won the April race here, and the median lap blends shine favorably on the raw speed of their top guys like Chase Elliott ($11,500), William Byron ($11,000), Ross Chastain ($9,500) and Kyle Larson ($6,500). Larson is on the playoff cutline after last week's wreck while never being super adept as a drafter, so he could shine with a more conservative gameplan around his teammates.

The downside is that many of them qualify well with all the raw speed, reducing their appeal in DFS. Daytona 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,500), Erik Jones ($8,200), Alex Bowman ($5,800), Daniel Suarez ($5,500), and Austin Dillon ($5,200) could start deeper in the field as Chevys with less raw speed. Jones and Suarez have consecutive top-10 finishes here at Talladega, and Dillon won the 2022 August race at Daytona.

Outmanned but never outgunned, Toyota stacks can absolutely pay off, too. Ask three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin ($12,000) or his driver who won the 2021 fall race at Talladega, Bubba Wallace ($10,500). There are only six in the field with Martin Truex Jr. ($8,000), Christopher Bell ($7,800), Tyler Reddick ($7,000), and Ty Gibbs ($6,200) set to join that dynamic duo. Interestingly, Toyota has just three top-5 finishers in the last three races here, and they only had one top-15 finisher (Bell) in this April's event.

Of course, we see longshots outperform their equipment with the draft acting as a great equalizer. As a couple of examples, Michael McDowell ($6,800) won the 2021 Daytona 500, and Justin Haley ($4,000) is also a former Daytona winner for Kaulig Racing.

Though they'll likely start at the back, I really don't love rostering drivers who are in equipment that's entirely outmatched. I've got the weaker car of B.J. McLeod ($3,000) out of the rankings entirely, and I'm not lining up in droves to roster Riley Herbst ($3,800), Ty Dillon ($3,500), J.J. Yeley ($3,000), or Brennan Poole ($3,000), either. Mayhem will have to completely overtake the field for several of them to advance in the field to a point where they help you win a tournament, and I just can't see that in a playoff event when weather will likely not be a factor.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.