NASCAR Betting Guide: Cook Out 400

2mo

For the most part, betting markets for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race in Martinsville are pretty efficient.

When I compare FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds with my model for the Cook Out 400, the r-squared value is 0.914, meaning they're tightly correlated. Even the few drivers who are values by my model check in at less than half a percentage point above their implied odds.

Except one.

There's a single driver my model is a good amount higher on than the market, and that driver is a value across the board. I understand why the market is lower; I just think there's cause for additional optimism.

Let's run through that driver's profile now, and then we can circle back later this week should more values arise.

Cook Out 400 Betting Picks

Daniel Suarez to Win (+15000); Suarez to Finish Top 5 (+1500); Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+350)

(UPDATE: Suarez is now +10000 to win, +1200 to finish top 5, and +350 to finish top 10. After qualifying, I'm right in line with the outright market, so it's one I'd skip over if betting now. The T5 and T10 markets are still values for me -- he's 11.4% and 32.2%, respectively, by my numbers -- so both of those are still viable considerations despite middling pace on Saturday.)

In baseball, you can sometimes ladder a player's strikeout prop when you think they've got upside. That's where you place one bet on their baseline prop and then make smaller bets on progressively higher markets, giving you a bigger payout should that player spike.

I want to ladder Daniel Suarez at Martinsville.

The NASCAR Cup Series has run four races at Martinsville in the Next-Gen era. Nine drivers have had multiple top-10 average running positions in that time. One of them (Aric Almirola) isn't in the field

Of the other eight, seven have outright odds of +2200 or shorter, and all of those are -125 or shorter to finish top 10.

Then there's Suarez.

I understand why he isn't getting the same attention. Neither run resulted in a top-10 finish, and his best finish here in 14 starts is 9th.

But Suarez's speed was better than those finishes as he scored stage points in all four stages across those two races.

Last fall was one of the non-elite runs for him. In that one, Suarez qualified 27th and finished 34th. But he had worked his way up to 12th in the race after the poor qualifying run before an incident not of his own doing ended his day.

The lack of speed in qualifying was a surprise, too. Suarez ranked third in 10-lap average during practice for that race (after adjusting for practice group differentials), and he had qualified seventh and second for the two Martinsville races before that. Those previous qualifying efforts also push us to target Suarez now before cars are on track as his odds could shorten; he closed at +8000 to win that fall race even while starting 27th.

When you combine this with Suarez's overall form, my model's way off market on him. I've got his win odds above 2% (0.7% implied at +15000), top-5 odds above 10% (6.3% implied at +1500), and top-10 odds above 30% (22.2% implied at +350). All are values individually, which is why I'm inclined to ladder them.

With the ladder, you want to be careful not to overexpose yourself to a single driver. Models make mistakes, and it's possible mine is just off here. Thus, it may be best to take your typical bet size and divide that up between the three markets outlined above, placing the largest chunk on the top-10 market.

Essentially, this allows you to place the equivalent of just one bet on Suarez and still benefit should he hit the high end of his range of outcomes. You have to play things based on your own personal comfort level, but just be mindful of not going too hard of Suarez, regardless of how the model views him.

At some point, Suarez has to turn the good runs into results. I believe he can do it, though, and I think there's more upside in his profile than he has shown.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Elliott to Win (+1400)

After qualifying, the two favorites are runaways for me in Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. In fact, I've even got Hamlin as the slimmest of values at FanDuel (20.1% to win versus 20.0% implied at +400).

But after those two, the driver with the third-highest win odds? It's Chase Elliott.

In practice on Saturday, Elliott ranked just 11th in single-lap speed, 13th in five-lap average, and 17th in 10-lap average. That ain't great.

But Elliott was in the slower of the two groups. Once you adjust for the differentials between the two, by my numbers, Elliott actually ranked first in single-lap speed, second in five-lap average, and third in 10-lap average. He validated that speed by qualifying third.

It has obviously been a rough go for Elliott recently, but he did finish fifth in Richmond last week, and he had a decent ninth-place average running position at Martinsville in the fall. My model has Elliott at 10.7% to win, a healthy amount above his 6.7% implied odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+350); Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+115)

Unlike Elliott, Bubba Wallace was in the faster practice group, so his speed hasn't been masked. Thus, I'm a bit surprised he grades out as a value here after he qualified second. But no complaints.

After the practice adjustments, Wallace ranked sixth in single-lap speed, fifth in five-lap average, and seventh in 10-lap average. This comes a week after he ran up front all day at Richmond, posting a sixth-place average running position.

Martinsville has traditionally been a good track for Wallace, who has three top-11 finishes here during four Next-Gen races. He hasn't had a top-five yet, but with his form at its peak, he has that kind of upside.

My model is a good chunk above market, putting him at 30.7% to finish top five and 55.8% to finish top 10. His respective implied odds are 22.2% and 46.5%. Similar to Suarez from earlier in the week, I'd want to ladder this one, dividing my baseline bet between the top 10 and the top 5 to give additional upside should his speed pan out.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+200)

Ryan Preece had a shot to win this race last year. He led 135 laps, but a pit-road speeding penalty ruined his day.

I don't see value in him to win at +5000, but for a top 10? I can get behind that.

There, my model has Preece at 36.7%, up from 33.3% implied. He has generally run best on short, flat tracks, posting a fifth-place finish last year in Richmond and an 11th-place average running position in the second Martinsville race.

Preece had very good speed in practice, ranking seventh or better in single-lap, 5-lap, and 10-lap times. He'll start 22nd, but I'm fine riding with him at this number.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Todd Gilliland has just one career Cup Series top-10 at a non-drafting paved oval. It came last fall at Martinsville. I think he has at least a shot to add to the tally this week.

Gilliland had decent speed Saturday. He qualified 16th and ranked 14th or better in each practice metric, after adjusting for group speed.

Gilliland had a 13th-place average running position in both Martinsville races last year. Those are the only top-15 average running positions of his career on non-drafting ovals. He also won a Truck Series race here during his age-19 season (and proceeded to trash talk his then-boss Kyle Busch over the radio), so it's clear he knows how to get around this place better than pretty much anywhere else.

My model has Gilliland at 17.8% to finish top 10, up from 11.8% implied. That's a big enough gap for me to take a swing.

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Which driver stands out to you on Sunday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.