Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Saturday 4/13/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Picks: Saturday 4/13/24

With Indian Wells and the Miami Open in the books, the ATP Tour's clay season is here as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Monte-Carlo Masters kicks things off for the men, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Monte-Carlo Masters Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Saturday's semifinals?

Monte-Carlo Masters Best Bet

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner

Over 2.5 Sets (+154)

After cruising through his first two matches here, Jannik Sinner was finally put to the test against Holger Rune, who was able to push Sinner to a final set. But the Italian ultimately prevailed 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 over two hours and 40 minutes. Despite facing some adversity, Sinner still shined on the stat sheet, winning 87% of his first-serve points and saving the only two break points he faced.

Clay has historically been Stefanos Tsitsipas' strongest surface (75.8% career win rate), and he's a two-time champion at this event. He's lived up to that reputation, as he hasn't dropped a set this week and most notably defeated top-20 opponents Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov in straight sets.

Tsitsipas' recent play suggests he could give Sinner a run for his money, and their head-to-head provides some confidence, as well. Although Sinner won the last two encounters, Tsitsipas was victorious in a five-set, four-hour marathon at the 2023 Australian Open and owns a 5-3 advantage overall. Of particular note, Stefanos is 3-1 against Jannik on clay.

While Sinner is a -430 favorite, Tennis Abstract's model suggests he should be closer to -190, projecting 65.5% win probability. Massey Ratings' matchup tool aligns with this, spitting out a 64% win chance on clay.

This suggests that backing Tsitsipas as a +340 underdog is good value -- but I still have a hard time picking the upset. Sinner is simply on another level this year and enters this match with an absurd 25-1 record. Dating back to last November, the only two players to beat Sinner are Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

Tsitsipas hasn't shown anywhere near the same consistency (15-6 in 2024) and was bounced in his opening match against Denis Shapovalov at the Miami Open ahead of coming here. Despite the head-to-head leaning Tsitsipas' way, Sinner is a different player than the one the Greek played from 2019-2022.

That said, there are enough positives on Tsitsipas' side to see this one going three sets, and the plus odds for that happening are quite appealing. Over 21.5 total match games (-122) is another option that could still hit with just two competitive sets, particularly if one goes to a tiebreak.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.