MLB SGP Bets to Target: Wednesday 8/7/24

Looking for a new way to bet on Major League Baseball this summer? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

Here at FanDuel Research, we're going to provide some SGPs builds to consider based on the games and props available for today, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for today's MLB slate? Let's dig in.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check FanDuel Research's projections to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB SGP Bets

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Over 8.0 Runs (-110)
Joey Ortiz to Hit a Single (-110)
Austin Riley to Record 2+ Total Bases (-110)

Combined Odds: +429

The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves meet with two exceptional starters on the mound. Freddy Peralta touts a 3.49 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.68 xFIP while Chris Sale has an elite 2.79 SIERA and 2.65 xFIP.

Sale and Peralta faced off in a head-to-head matchup on July 31st, which Atlanta took 6-2. The over has become a clear trend when the Brew Crew and Braves battle as it's hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Peralta's numbers fell in July, carrying a 4.10 ERA over five starts compared to his 3.89 ERA for the season. He's also given up eight earned runs over his last two matchups with Atlanta.

Sale, who has the shortest odds to win the National League Cy Young award (+110), has continued to dominate with a 2.45 ERA over his last five. However. the Brewers are slightly above average against lefties, carrying a .250 batting average (14th-highest) and .317 wOBA (13th highest). Plus, Milwaukee is among the top 10 in runs above average against sliders and four-seam fastballs -- Sale's most-used tools.

Each batting order should have enough to keep the over trend going.

Along with the over, let's target two batters to have success. Starting with the Brew Crew, Joey Ortiz looks bound for a single.

His slugging percentage (SLG) has been under .250 since July. When Ortiz does record a hit, it's usually a single. In fact, six of his last seven hits have been singles.

With Ortiz recording a hit in six of his previous nine outings, the -110 odds for a single are worth a swing.

Perhaps the most promising line of this parlay is Austin Riley to reach at least two bases. The odds are -110. FanDuel Research's MLB projections have Riley reaching at least two bases with a 63.1% probability (-171 odds). Going by that, there's great value here as -110 odds carry a 52.4% probability.

The evidence is present, as well. Riley is off to a blistering start in August, hitting .333 while reaching at least two bases in three of five games. He also has 5 hits in 13 career at-bats when facing Peralta (.385).

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

Under 6 Runs (-108)
Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Victor Robles to Hit a Single (-160)

Combined Odds: +359

If low-scoring contests dominated by aces is your cup of tea, tune in to the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners. Detroit will have Tarik Skubal on the mound, and he has the shortest odds to win the American League Cy Young award (-260). George Kirby of the Mariners is also enjoying an exceptional season with a 3.42 clip in both SIERA and xFIP.

The Tigers have the 11th-fewest runs scored in baseball while Seattle has the 4th-fewest. Detroit is averaging a measly 2.4 runs per game over their previous eight while the Mariners are at 4.0 runs per contest over their last five -- barely above their season average of 3.94 (third-lowest).

Additionally, Skubal has pitched into the seventh inning in four of his last five appearances. Kirby is providing deep starts by appearing in the sixth frame in 10 straight starts.

This has the lowest total of the day by 1.5 runs, but two low-scoring teams and a pair of ace pitchers still provide enough comfort for the under.

Continuing with our theme of strong pitching, Skubal is favored to go over 7.5 strikeouts (-154). He's done so four of his last five starts, averaging 9.0 Ks per game during the span.

There isn't much on Seattle's end that suggests fewer strikeouts as they carry the highest strikeout percentage (K%) in baseball and are logging 12.3 strikeouts per contest over the last three. The Mariners also have the third-fewest runs above average in MLB against changeups -- Skubal's top K% pitch.

As the last two picks suggest, this game doesn't spell much success for batters. But Victor Robles could be the exception as he hit .375 in July and has at least one hit in 12 of his last 15 games.

Additionally, Robles is hitting .395, .250, and .250 against Skubal's most-used pitches, led by his absurd average against four-seam fastballs. A single seems like the best bet with 17 of Robles' last 21 hits being one-base knocks.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-113)
Teoscar Hernandez to Record an RBI (+140)

Combined Odds: +232

Tyler Phillips has been a wild ride for the Philadelphia Phillies. After recording a complete game on July 27th, the rookie gave up eight earned runs and was pulled in the second inning of his most recent start. The Phillies are battling the inconsistencies of a rookie.

Most of the numbers on Phillips are small sample sizes with only five MLB under his belt, but so far, he is carrying concerning numbers in average exit velocity (89.2 MPH) and barrel percentage (14.3%). He just surrendered three home runs in his most recent start and has allowed six dingers over five outings.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the fourth-most runs scored paired with the fourth-highest slugging percentage. In addition, the Dodgers carry the fourth-highest isolated power (ISO) and home run percentage. The final blow: Los Angeles has the third-most runs above average against sinkers and sweepers, which are Phillips' most-used pitches.

One of the MLB's best batting orders is gearing up for a high-scoring night.

Paired with the Dodgers' runs, Teoscar Hernandez is a slugger who should have success. According to our projections, he has the highest forecasted homers at 0.40 for this matchup. His doubles number is not far behind at 0.26 -- tied with Shohei Ohtani for the highest projection in this game.

Thanks to his slugging, Hernandez has the highest projected RBI at 0.81. If the projections are correct, this suggests a 55.5% probability for Teoscar to record an RBI, which would come out to -125 odds.

Meanwhile, his +140 odds to record an RBI have only a 41.7% probability. The projections are too much to ignore, especially when Hernandez has five ribbies over his last five games.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game on August 7th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.