4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Monday 9/1/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Spencer Strider Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+116)

After ranking in the 99th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%) in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Spencer Strider has taken a step back with a 25.2% K rate (70th percentile) in 2025. The Atlanta Braves' starter remains above average in the category by averaging 5.8 strikeouts per appearance. His strikeout prop is right around his season-long average for Monday's meeting with the Chicago Cubs. Which side looks like the best bet?

The Cubs have the fourth-lowest K% while totaling the fourth-fewest strikeouts per game. Plus, Chicago has the seventh-highest walk percentage (BB%) and the sixth-lowest whiff rate. Both categories should pose problems for Strider -- who is in the 32nd percentile of BB% and 85th percentile of whiff percentage.

Strider has struggled in the strikeout department over his last three outings, recording two, two, and three Ks. He even pitched for seven innings in his most recent appearance, yet Strider still reached only three strikeouts. The Cubs logging the sixth-most runs above average against sliders further adds to the under. Strider's most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (52.8%) and slider (36.6%), and his fastball has only a 15.4 K% compared to the slider holding a 39.4 K%.

With Chicago hitting well against Strider's top K pitch, I'm expecting his strikeout slump to continue. The Cubs can take advantage of his concerning walk rate while rarely swinging and missing, further aiding our side. Our MLB DFS projections has Strider totaling 5.14 strikeouts, rounding out our evidence for the under.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Giants Over 5.5 Total Runs (-136)

With the ninth-fewest runs scored on the season, the San Francisco Giants are usually a firm under target. However, recent run production puts that into question. The Giants have reached at least 12 runs in three of their last five, but they've scored 4 and 1 runs in the other two. What kind of run production should we expect against the Colorado Rockies?

The Rockies are putting a right-handed pitcher on the mound in Chase Dollander. In the last five games, San Francisco is totaling 13.3 runs per game when facing northpaw starters compared to 2.5 against lefties in the split. We may have already navigated the recent streaky production from the Giants.

Dollander is a vulnerable right-handed hurler with a 6.55 ERA, 4.92 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and 4.83 xFIP. Over four starts in August, Dollander still logged a 6.05 ERA.

The Giants have few strengths at the plate, but they do boast the 6th-highest BB% paired with the 11th-fewest runners left in scoring position (RLISP) per game. Dollander is in the 12th percentile of walk rate allowed. Furthermore, San Francisco has racked up 2.0 home runs per game over its previous five (1.0 on the season), and Dollander allows 1.64 home runs per nine innings pitched (HR/9) while ranking in the fourth percentile of barrel percentage allowed.

This looks like a favorable matchup for a batting order enjoying a recent boost in run production. Look for the Giants to stay hot against right-handed starters.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

Christian Yelich to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Despite allowing only one home run over his previous five starts, the Philadelphia Phillies' Taijuan Walker remains a potential target for opposing sluggers as he's allowed 1.33 HR/9. Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers is someone who has flourished against Walker, sporting a .500 batting average and .900 SLG in 10 career at-bats.

Yelich checks the box for slugging, too, carrying a team-high 27 home runs in the 2025 season. When facing right-handed hurlers, Yelich bats .282 compared to .244 against southpaws. Furthermore, 23 of his 27 big flies have come against righties in 2025.

Walker's three-most used pitches are a cutter (30.9%), splitter (21.6%), and sinker (20.2%). Yelich carries a .302 batting average and .296 career batting average against cutters, .238 and .197 when facing splitters, and .263 and .312 against sinkers. While he doesn't fare well against splitters, this is still a win with Yelich excelling against cutters and sinkers.

Our projections have Yelich logging 0.29 home runs -- which has a 25.2% implied probability (or +297 odds) for at least one long ball. This is pointing to terrific value as the current +500 line has only a 16.7% implied probability for one homer.

Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres

Dylan Cease Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-130)

Facing the 61-76 Baltimore Orioles has elevated some of Dylan Cease's props, including -134 odds to go over 7.5 strikeouts paired with over/under 16.5 outs recorded. This hasn't been a dominant year for Cease as he touts a 4.82 ERA. How will he fare against the O's?

Baltimore remains capable of run production thanks to power hitting, which includes totaling the 12th-most home runs per game along with the 13th-highest SLG and 12th-highest isolated power (ISO). In a three-game series over the weekend against the Giants, the Orioles totaled 7.7 runs per game.

Narrowing our focus on tonight's matchup, Cease has dealt with some woes against sluggers by allowing 1.27 HR/9 while ranking in the 23rd and 54th percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed. The San Diego Padres' starter heavily leans on his slider (42.9%) and four seamer (41.1%), and Baltimore isn't too shabby against these pitches with the 18th and 12th-most runs above average.

Backed by a recent boost in scoring, the Orioles have some angles to succeed in this meeting. Plus, I have little confidence in Cease making a deep start. He's went over 16.5 outs recorded in only one of his past eight appearances. In line with Cease projected 4.81 innings pitched, give me under 16.5 outs recorded.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.