MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/24/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday 4/24/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Yankees -1.5 (-110)

For the third bid of a four-game series in the Bronx, the New York Yankees (16-8) and Oakland Athletics (9-15) are set for an evening affair. The two sides split the previous contests, with Oakland winning on Monday only for New York to return the favor last night.

On Wednesday, I think the Yankees are in a favorable spot to cover the run line (-110 odds). The pitching matchup here will feature righties Clarke Schmidt and Joe Boyle. Schmidt has been effective for New York in 2024, boasting a 3.52 skill-interactive ERA. Across the way, Boyle has labored for the A's, having issued 5.79 BB/9 this year. I give the pitching advantage to the pinstriped bunch here.

Next, the Bronx Bombers certainly have the more talented lineup compared to Oakland. The A's currently have the third-worst wOBA (.279) in MLB and are scoring only 2.83 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Yanks have produced 4.33 runs per game.

With Anthony Rizzo serving as Tuesday's hero for New York, I think he and fellow left-handed bat Juan Soto (60.5% Statcast hard-hit rate) can jump on Boyle, who has surrendered a .837 OPS to lefties this season.

NYY has not covered -1.5 runs against Oakland in this series, but I think that ends tonight. At numberFire, the power rankings list these two sides more than 10 places apart. There, the Yankees (0.71 nERD) chime in at 12th while the Athletics (-1.00 nERD) are down at 25th.

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET

Cubs Moneyline (-110)

At Wrigley Field, Wednesday presents an intriguing interleague clash between the Houston Astros (7-16) and Chicago Cubs (13-9). Last night, Chicago got the better of Houston, flying the W flag after a 7-2 victory.

Game 2 will showcase Spencer Arrighetti and Jameson Taillon as projected starters on the hill. Taillon was strong in his lone start of 2024, allowing just three hits and one run. On the other side, the rookie Arrighetti has been tagged with a 4.79 SIERA through two career outings.

Simply, the Cubbies have been the more prolific team this season. Compared to the Astros, Chicago has a superior team OPS (.742) and wOBA (.329). From there, the Cubs have won seven of their past 10 contests while Houston has dropped three straight bids (and six of their last seven).

Arrighetti could have a tough time with the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed hitters Michael Busch (.949 OPS) and Cody Bellinger (six-game RBI streak) are mashing right now. In this matchup, I can get behind them as well as other Chicago sluggers.

When surveying numberFire's MLB game projections, the Cubs are labeled with a 52.93% chance to win on Wednesday. Additionally, they are 8-3 at Wrigley in 2024. Behind home cooking, I love the Cubbies' moneyline with standard pricing (-110).

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Over 9.0 Runs (-102)

For an AL West romp, let us head out to MLB's newest venue. At Globe Life Field, the Seattle Mariners (11-11) are set for their second game of the season with the defending champion Texas Rangers (12-11).

Yesterday, Texas was shut out for just the second time this season, losing to Seattle by a score of 4-0. Still, I can't say that I am expecting a similar contest for Wednesday's divisional meeting. Against a total of nine runs, I like these foes to go over (-102 odds).

In 2023, the M's and Rangers faced off 13 times. Through that span, games had an average total of 8.23. That obviously falls short of tonight's total, but I think we can expect a little more offense for Wednesday.

The probable pitchers in this bid are Bryce Miller and Jon Gray. Miller proved in 2023 that he can be vulnerable against left-handed bats, surrendering a 46.5% fly-ball clip along with a 39.0% hard-contact rate for that split. That could spell trouble for Miller when taking on Corey Seager and Josh Smith (.764 OPS).

A wily veteran, Gray has been respectable in 2024, but he is allowing a 47.2% Statcast hard-hit rate. That's a dangerous clip, but even more so in Arlington. Per Baseball Savant, Globe Life Field (104) ranks within the top-five venues for Park Factor scoring.

numberFire's model also prefers over 9.0 runs for this AL West bid. According to their game projections, the Rangers are estimated to win by a score of 4.99-4.67. That summates to 9.66 expected runs in this contest. Keep in mind -- extra innings are our ally here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.