MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/16/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 4/16/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Braves (+104)

As a rematch of the 2021 World Series, the Atlanta Braves (10-5) and Houston Astros (6-12) will get together on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. This will be the second contest in a three-game series, as the Braves blitzed Houston for a 6-1 win last night.

The projected starters for Game Two are fellow righties Reynaldo Lopez and Hunter Brown. For the 'Stros, Brown has endured a rough campaign in 2024. He is 0-2 thus far with a 5.38 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). I think that can lead to success and value in the first-five-inning results market by playing Atlanta (+104 odds).

For the full-game moneyline, the Braves are labeled with shorter -128 odds. That price deters me from the traditional line, so let us take a chance on ATL leading after five completed frames.

Lopez has been stellar in 2024, not allowing any home runs to this point. That should translate well against a team from Houston that is scoring only 4.5 runs per game (down from 5.1 in 2023).

Despite a slow start, the Astros still have a talented group. However, Atlanta currently boasts the highest collective OPS in baseball (.852). Sluggers Marcell Ozuna (22 RBI) and Matt Olson (.928 OPS) are on a tear, and I think they stand in good position to put the Braves ahead early on Tuesday.

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Cubs Moneyline (+108)

Here we see two National League sides with authentic postseason expectations in 2024. The Chicago Cubs (10-6) and Arizona Diamondbacks (8-9) have both shown flashes of dominance this year, but Chicago is a bit hotter at the moment.

The Cubbies have strung together three consecutive wins for the second time this season. On Monday, Chicago outlasted the D-backs in extra innings with Nico Hoerner serving as the hero.

For Game Two in the desert, the Cubs will send out Kyle Hendricks while Arizona hands the ball to southpaw Tommy Henry. Neither pitcher has logged a win in 2024, and Henry could have a tough time versus Chicago. CHC hitters have been slightly better against left-handed pitching this season, showing a .733 team OPS in that split.

Entering Tuesday, each team here is scoring 5.3 runs per game. The respective batting lineups are flush with talent, highlighting players like Seiya Suzuki, Ketel Marte, Dansby Swanson and Corbin Carroll among others. At FanDuel Sportsbook, we see a lofty total of 10.5 runs (-102/-120), which is the largest number on Tuesday's slate.

With the Cubs currently streaking, their moneyline price of +108 odds catches my eye. numberFire offers support for this play, showing an estimated Chicago-winning score of 5.30-4.34. That gives the Cubbies a 58.43% chance at victory.

St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Under 8.0 Runs (-110)

To add some interleague into the mix, the St. Louis Cardinals (8-9) are set for another game at the Oakland Athletics (7-10) tonight. Simply, that means we'll see two struggling offenses battle it out at a pitcher's park -- let's target under eight total runs (-110 odds).

This is the final MLB campaign for the Oakland/Alameda County Coliseum. A cookie-cutter venue that opened in 1966, hitters surely will not miss the expansive foul territory offered in the East Bay; balls that would easily reach the infield seats in most other parks result in pop outs at the Coliseum. Incidentally, Baseball Savant has the Coliseum ranked 24th in terms of Park Factor scoring.

For Tuesday, the probable starters on the mound are JP Sears and Lance Lynn. A wily veteran, Lynn has been sharp for the Red Birds, showing a 3.65 SIERA in 2024. On the other side, Sears has displayed mixed results for Oakland. He gave up nine earned runs through his first two starts before shutting out the Texas Rangers last Thursday in 6.1 innings of work.

The A's are not stringing together too many quality at-bats these days. Right now, Oakland shows a team wOBA of .274, which is the second-worst mark in the American League. From there, they are scoring only 2.82 runs per game.

St. Louis is not reeling as bad as the Athletics, but they have yet to impress in 2024. So far, the Cards have produced a .668 team OPS, leaving them ranked 23rd of 30. In terms of scoring, St. Louis stands at 3.76 runs per game.

With reliable arms on the hill (in a pitcher's venue), I am confident in challenging these two batting lineups. Additionally, through Oakland's past seven games, only two of their contests have produced eight or more total runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.