MLB Betting Picks for Thursday 4/11/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
MLB Betting Picks for Thursday 4/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, 1:10 p.m. ET

Under 7.0 Runs (-115)

On Thursday, we'll be treated to a divisional tilt between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers in Motor City. This will be the opener of a four-game series at Comerica Park, as these AL Central foes are meeting for the initial time in 2024.

For projected starters, the visiting Twins will send out veteran Pablo Lopez. The right-hander has been solid this year, yielding a 3.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). However, he allowed four runs on six hits in his most recent effort.

Detroit will hand the ball to lefty Tarik Skubal, who currently boasts a 7.50 K/BB ratio. Skubal will likely have the easier challenge, as Minnesota's team OPS (.593) is second-lowest in the Majors -- although the Tigers' offense has not been too much better, displaying a collective .283 wOBA right now.

All things considered, I think these lineups fall short of seven total runs versus quality starting pitching on Thursday. Additionally, the weather in Michigan won't make for optimal hitting conditions. Through heavy air, it could be tough to drive the baseball.

numberFire shows an estimated score of 3.53-3.31 for this series opener, giving the upper hand to the Twins. Using those figures, we are looking at approximately 6.84 runs. If we push at seven, so be it, but I like the under at Comerica Park.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, 2:35 p.m. ET

Rangers -1.5 (+100)

I was on the Texas Rangers' run line versus the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday, and Thursday (+100 odds) will be no different -- let us take a look at the looming matchup.

Amongst Thursday's small slate, this is a game where we can say with certainty that it will not be rained out. As MLB's newest ballpark, Globe Life Field offers a retractable roof. Knowing that, we'll have action in Arlington for sure, and the hitting conditions will be fair.

The probable pitchers for this AL West contest are Jon Gray and lefty JP Sears. Showing a 7.02 SIERA, Sears has not been very sharp for Oakland in 2024. From there, Texas has mashed southpaw pitching for an .851 team OPS this season.

Gray has performed so-so for the Rangers, giving up five earned runs through two starts in the current campaign, but he is in the more favorable spot compared to his opposite number. Gray will take on an Athletics offense that is ranked in the bottom three for total scoring. Conversely, Sears must go through a Texas lineup that is the top slugging team in the American League.

The MLB game projections at numberFire echo strong support for Rangers laying 1.5 on Thursday, giving Texas a 69.25% likelihood of covering the run line. With the Rangers going against a struggling A's lineup, I can absolutely get behind the defending world champs.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox Moneyline (+100)

We've looked at divisional games in two of three American League groupings, so let us complete the trifecta by now highlighting the AL East. For Thursday's final contest, the Boston Red Sox are hosting the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park.

In a bid that will be top-prospect Jackson Holliday's second Major-League start, he and the Orioles' lineup will have a challenge. Garrett Whitlock will toe the rubber for Boston in this series finale; the 6-foot-5 righty has surrendered only one earned run through 9.1 innings pitched in 2024.

Baltimore will start a right-handed pitcher of its own in Grayson Rodriguez. So far, Rodriguez has been effective this year, but he is allowing a 46.7% Statcast hard-hit rate. He's also given up 2.19 homers per 9 innings in the short season.

Genuinely, that sort of loud contact could spell trouble for the O's at Fenway. MLB's oldest active venue yields the second-highest offensive Park Factor score (108) over the past three years. In this instance, I would prefer to lean on the veteran Whitlock as opposed to the sophomore Rodriguez.

Both offenses rank outside the top 10 in scoring, but simultaneously, they are well within the top 20. In particular, I think Boston sluggers Jarren Duran (.373 OBP) and Rafael Devers (100 HR since 2021) are poised to do damage against Rodriguez.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the home team labeled as even-money underdogs (+100 odds) in this contest, so I'll take the BoSox to win outright on Thursday night.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 —win or lose! See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.