MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Wednesday 6/19/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Wednesday 6/19/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 8.0 Runs (-106)

This matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays pits two middling offenses against one another to close out a three-game series, which Boston leads 2-0.

As for the pitching matchup, the Red Sox are going with Brayan Bello, and Kevin Gausman is getting the nod for the Blue Jays.

Bello holds a 5.00 ERA this season across 63.0 innings. Some of the underlying data is better than that, including a 4.27 xERA and a 3.98 SEIRA, but the strikeout rate (20.3%) isn't intimidating, and his xSLG (.411) is slightly above the league average (.407).

Gausman is credited for a top-30 xSLG (.485) among qualified pitchers, and his ERA (4.08) should be worse (4.98 xERA). The strikeout rate is just 23.8%, suggesting Boston can get the bat on the ball.

Keying in on the pitching matchup here is pointing to an over.

Player Prop: Brayan Bello Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)

In conjunction with an over, we can look to an under on Bello's strikeout prop (4.5).

His strikeout total has been climbing lately (5, 2, 5, 7, 6 over his last five games for 5.0 per game) -- but he's had some generous matchups in terms of opponent strikeout rate.

The Blue Jays own a low strikeout rate against righties, and in similar matchups, Bello has just a 16.7% strikeout rate (three starts), lower than his already-low total rate of 20.3%.

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

Mets Moneyline (-106)

The New York Mets look to move to 18-14 on the road this season while the Texas Rangers own a losing home record (16-19).

The lefty-versus-lefty pitching matchup here is pretty tight in terms of traditional stats.

Sean Manaea has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP across 65.2 innings for the Mets.

Andrew Heaney has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP across 66.2 innings for the Rangers.

Even the underlying data is pretty similar with Heaney's SIERA at 4.02 and Manaea's at 4.07.

The real difference here is that the Mets are a top-tier team against lefties. The Rangers are bottom-10 in wOBA and slugging against lefties. New York's wRC+ against LHP is 119; Texas' is 87.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels

Brewers Moneyline (-156)

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road against the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup between Freddy Peralta and Tyler Anderson.

Peralta remains a regression candidate. He holds a 4.38 ERA but has underlying data suggesting better play: a 4.01 xERA, a 3.39 xFIP, and a 3.19 SIERA. He also owns a 30.7% strikeout rate on the year, as well.

Anderson is on the other end of that regression conversation. His 2.58 ERA is tied to a 4.66 xERA, a 5.09 xFIP, and a 5.20 SIERA. In fact, Anderson is top-10 in ERA versus xERA.

There's not much of a gap in xwOBA (or really a lot of hitting stats) on the team level, so the starting pitching and bullpen edge here points to the Brewers moving to 22-18 on the road.

Player Prop: Freddy Peralta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Along these lines, Peralta is in line for strikeouts tonight.

He has had at least seven strikeouts in 9 of 14 starts (64.3%), and in four matchups against teams in the middle-tier of strikeout rate against righties, he did so in three of them (75.0%).

He threw just 3.1 innings in the start in which he didn't get there, one of just two starts this season where he failed to reach 5.0 innings.

numberFire's model projects him for 6.75 strikeouts tonight, and based on expected K rates, I have him at 7.2.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.