MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/14/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Sunday 4/14/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-130)
Boston Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs (-125)

After breaking out of their recent losing streak on Saturday, the Red Sox will try to sustain their winning ways in a matchup between Brayan Bello and Angels' left-hander Tyler Anderson.

Coming off his first full season pitching in a starting role, Bello gives his team a clear edge on the mound with an above average 3.99 career xFIP in this split while Anderson has really struggled since last season with an ugly 5.43 xFIP in 27 starts. When considering Bello's special ability to get outs versus right-handed bats (3.29 xFIP, 24.2% K-rate), we should feel even more confident Boston's young starter really has a spot to succeed versus seven spots in Los Angeles' lineup hitting from this specific side.

With an upper hand in pitching, the Red Sox deserve to be rated as favorites on Sunday afternoon while presenting some value with a 3.0% edge between numberFire's 59.5% win probability and their 56.5% implied percentage.

In addition to Boston's moneyline, we can also find more value in the Red Sox's run total when examining numberFire's 5.42 expected mark and current concerns in Anderson's profile this season with a wide gap between his blank ERA and a 4.59 xFIP.

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Cristian Javier Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)

It's been a while since Javier has been good on the mound.

After breaking onto the scene in 2022 with an impressive 3.53 xFIP, Houston's right-hander has seen a concerning drop in his advanced metrics in his last 34 starts, recording an ugly 5.20 xFIP while producing five or less strikeouts in 64% of his appearances during this time period.

With a declining skillset and a horrible matchup against a pesky Rangers' offense with special plate discipline (24th in pitches swung outside the strike zone) and the league's third lowest K-rate (18.2%), there are too many negative data points to believe Javier can succeed on Sunday or reach any of his performance related props.

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-148)

Despite splitting the first two games of this series, the Diamondbacks should be considered the better team over St. Louis.

Overall, Arizona hold advantages in pitching this afternoon when comparing Zac Gallen (3.60 xFIP, 27.0% K-rate) to Miles Mikolas (4.16 xFIP, 17.6% K-rate) while ranking far higher in several key offensive metrics including weighted runs created plus (11th versus 22nd) and wOBA (8th versus 23rd).

As the superior team with edges in both pitching and hitting, the Diamondbacks present some value on Sunday with a 2.3% edge between their 59.6% implied percentage and numberFire's 61.9% win probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.