MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/25/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/25/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Jarren Duran to Record 2+ Bases (-160)

Despite last night's disappointing two run performance, the Red Sox have an ideal spot to turn things around with their bats in a matchup against right-hander Colin Rea.

Heading in Saturday afternoon while Rea has accounted for a fairly average 4.41 xFIP in nine starts this season, the 33-year old could be heading towards a rough outing on the road when examining his main weakness versus left-handed hitters (15.3% home run to fly-ball ratio, .332 wOBA) and upcoming challenge in an offensive environment ranked second in park factors in this exact split.

With five lefty hitters set in Boston's lineup to expose Rea's splits including a red-hot Jarren Duran (.327 expected average, 51% hard hit rate in last 47 at-bats), the "BoSox" and their young leadoff hitter are in great position to excel and surpass their expectations including a team total projected at 4.96 runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-162)

After dropping three straight games including the first contest of this series on Friday night, the Dodgers are expected to break out of their slump as a 53.8% road favorite.

Taking the mound for Los Angeles, Walker Buehler rates as a more reliable starter this season (3.36 xFIP / 3.34 SIERA) and throughout his career (3.47 xFIP, 3.30 FIP) when glancing at his advanced metrics while on the opposing side Hunter Greene profiles as an enigma and a volatile pitcher (4.11 career FIP) with inconsistent command (9.4% career walk rate) and power issues (8.2% opposing career barrel rate, 13.5% home run to fly ball ratio).

While the Dodgers are dealing with some injuries with Max Muncy, Joe Kelly, and Ryan Brasier currently sidelined, there should be confidence the short-handed "Blue Crew" can rebound on Saturday night as the far more complete team even in their current state with a reliable starter on the hill and higher offensive (16th in wOBA and wRC+ versus 27th) and pitching ratings (5th versus 28th in xFIP) since May 17th.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies

Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Bases (-160)

In a mouth-watering matchup at Coors Field versus Dakota Hudson, Philadelphia's lefty slugger has a great opportunity to provide return against a well below-average starter accounting for a poor 5.14 xFIP, an eye-popping 13.2% home run to fly-ball ratio, and a putrid 12.6% K-rate.

When considering all of today's positive data points surrounding this matchup including Hudson's poor form and splits versus left-handed bats (.335 wOBA, 5.12 XFIP), Harper's recent impressive batted form in his last 41 at-bats (.296 expected average, 53% hard hit rate) and his career production versus Hudson including a .709 expected average with four extra base hits, we are getting a huge bargain for Harper to record at least two bases even at an implied 61.5% percentage.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.