MLB

MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/11/24

Matthew Lo
Matthew Lo@holla2mlo
MLB Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Saturday 5/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians Over 4.5 Runs (-111)
Jose Ramirez to Record 2+ Bases (-130)

Despite some inconsistent offensive performances in their last five games, the Guardians are setup to produce some offense versus right-hander Mike Clevinger.

Since last season, Clevinger has profiled as a downright awful starting pitcher in his past 25 appearances, recording a pitiful 5.25 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA while also accounting for massive splits against left-handed bats (5.74 xFIP, .322 wOBA).

When considering Clevinger's main weakness and his upcoming scary matchup versus seven lefty hitters stationed in MLB's ninth ranked offense in run average, the Guardians have an optimal opportunity to reach their team total in Chicago especially with Jose Ramirez smoking the ball for a sizzling .334 expected average and 13% barrel rate in his last 23 at-bats.

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

Salvador Perez to Record 2+ Bases (-125)

In a favorable spot versus left-hander Tyler Anderson, Kansas City's cleanup hitter has a perfect spot to rebound from last night's hitless effort.

There are several primary reasons to believe Perez can bounce back in Los Angeles when examining his impressive batted form this season (.307 expected average, 17.5% barrel rate), historical success in this matchup including a .313 expected average and three extra base hits, and Anderson's below-average advanced metrics (4.89 xFIP, 18.4% K-rate, 10.6% opposing barrel percentage).

With all signs shouting for a big potential performance against a regressing low strikeout lefty, expect the Royal's slugger to cash in on Saturday night even at an implied 55.5% percentage.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners Over 4.5 Runs (-118)

After scoring eight runs in the first game of this division series, the Mariners have an ideal opportunity to continue their momentum with an appetizing 5.12 expected team total versus Oakland's rookie Joey Estes.

While Estes' Major League resume offers limited analysis through ten innings, the 22-year old looks like a pitcher we want to pick on when analyzing his alarming 17.1% opposing barrel rate and 19.0% home run to fly-ball ratio during this time period and a terrible resume in Triple-A including a 5.52 xFIP in six starts this season and a 6.04 xFIP in 32.2 innings in 2023.

When evaluating Estes' ugly profile in baseball's top two levels and Seattle's underrated power with six hitters with ISOs between 0.180 and 0.233, today's matchup should provide optimism towards the M's getting the job done at home and scoring at least five runs.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.