MLB Betting Guide for Wednesday 10/11/23: Goodbye Dodger(s)

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

Astros ML (+106)

Yesterday I said, "If there is one thing I hate, it's betting against the Houston Astros in October."

I then proceeded to pick the Twins to have a lead after five innings.

That did not go well...

But don't worry, we're all about learning from our mishaps here. So, today we're trusting one of the most dominant postseason teams of the last six seasons to win outright over the Minnesota Twins and advance to the ALCS.

The Astros will trot out righty Jose Urquidy to start tonight. Urquidy had a rough beginning to the year before spending three months on the IL. He didn't look great upon his return but closed out the season strong with 9.0 shutout innings across two starts.

That seems more in line with his career marks, as he owns a career 3.98 ERA even with this season's 5.29 ERA. He's seen plenty of action across Houston's numerous postseason runs, notably tossing 3.0 scoreless innings in last year's World Series.

The Twins hit righties well during the regular season, ranking fifth in wOBA (.330) and fourth in ISO (.188). However, they struggled against Cristian Javier last night, and they notably didn't do much facing Urquidy earlier this season. Sure, it was back in April, but managing just a single run and striking out 6 times in 5.1 innings doesn't exactly instill a ton of confidence that they'll rough him up tonight.

On the opposite side, I don't trust Joe Ryan to contain an Astros lineup that put up four runs before the Twins even got to hit yesterday. Ryan was lights out to begin the year but struggled over the second half of the season. From the All-Star break onward, Ryan posted a 6.09 ERA and allowed a .392 wOBA -- a stark contrast to the 3.70 ERA and .273 wOBA he registered during the first half.

The Astros saw Joe Ryan twice during the regular season.

It did not go well for Joe Ryan.

Across 10.0 innings, the Astros pegged him for 9 runs and 3 home runs. While he did strike out 16, Ryan managed a high strikeout rate (30.2%) over the entire second half... and it did not stop him from giving up runs.

The Astros, meanwhile, shredded righties in the second half of the season. Over that span, Houston ranked fourth in wOBA (.347), seventh in ISO (.188), and fourth in wRC+ (122) -- all while striking out at the second-lowest clip (19.1%).

Houston had made six consecutive ALCS appearances coming into this postseason. If last night was any indication, they'll make that seven with a win tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks ML (+108)

The Los Angeles Dodgers look to fend off elimination tonight, down 0-2 as they travel to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

With the fate of their season on the line, LA turns to Lance Lynn.

Lance Lynn, a righty who posted a 5.73 ERA across stints with the Chicago White Sox and Dodgers this season.

Lance Lynn, a 36-year-old journeyman who's given up 9 runs in 7.0 postseason innings since 2014 and owns a lifetime 5.28 ERA and 11.1% walk rate in the postseason.

That Lance Lynn.

While Lynn was better upon arriving in Los Angeles, he still gave up multiple runs in 8 of his 11 starts with them during the regular season. While he hasn't pitched in nearly two weeks, I'm hard-pressed to believe he'll have success against Arizona tonight.

For one, the Diamondbacks had much better numbers against righties compared to lefties this season. In that split, Arizona ranked 13th in wOBA (.320) and 16th in ISO (.164) while striking out at the fifth-lowest clip (20.7%) in baseball.

They've done a great job of getting after righties early this postseason. Against the three right-handed starters they've faced thus far, Arizona has put up 12 hits and 11 hits in 10.2 innings.

In general, the Diamondbacks have done a good job of putting up runs early in the game. Through four games, they've averaged 4.25 runs per game in the first five innings. That makes a Diamondbacks F5 ML (+106) play intriguing, but I'm still sold on Arizona closing things out tonight.

Arizona is starting Brandon Pfaadt, but they've already shown they aren't afraid to pivot quickly. Pfaadt lasted just 2.2 innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs before getting yanked.

That's not great, but it's a good sign that Torey Lovullo isn't shy about pulling his rookie.

And that's fine! Arizona has had one of the best bullpens of the postseason thus far, having given up just 2 runs in 15.2 innings of work.

At the end of the day, this play is just as much about fading the Dodgers as it is about fading Lynn.

Given how well Arizona has played this postseason, I'm comfortable doing both.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.