Madrid Open Betting Picks: Saturday 4/27/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Madrid Open Betting Picks: Saturday 4/27/24

The tennis clay season continues as we work our way to the 2024 French Open in late May.

The Madrid Open is underway, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Madrid Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Where can we find betting value in Saturday's matches? Note that play begins at 5:00 am ET due to a six-hour time difference.

Madrid Open Best Bets

Pedro Cachin vs. Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe -2.5 Games (-120)

While clay isn't Frances Tiafoe's strongest surface, and his 2024 campaign has been a mixed bag so far, he arguably should be more than a -192 moneyline favorite against Pedro Cachin.

Tiafoe failed to generate much momentum in the early hard-court season, but he finished runner-up on clay at Houston, coming up just short in the final against fellow American Ben Shelton. Tiafoe also found success in Houston last year, winning his first career clay title.

Although Tiafoe wasn't quite able to generate as much noise in the European clay events last year, he did advance to the third round of the French Open, his best-ever finish at that major.

Cachin did defeat Tiafoe in Madrid last season -- their lone head-to-head meeting -- but his current form suggests he'll have a tough time repeating that result.

That's because world No. 91 Chacin entered this tournament 0-10 on the year, finally getting his first 2024 victory in the last round. Perhaps the win renews some confidence, but carrying that sort of record against Tiafoe, a player ranked just outside the top 20, likely doesn't end well.

Per Tennis Abstract's model, Tiafoe has an 80% win probability, which would suggest he should be closer to a -400 favorite. Massey Ratings gives a 74% chance of winning, which would still put him at -285.

Picking Tiafoe to win in straight sets gives us appealing +130 odds, so that's certainly worth considering. But given the surface and the American's own inconsistent play this season, backing him to cover the small spread feels like the safer play.

Cameron Norrie vs. Joao Fonseca

Norrie -3.5 Games (-104)

This matchup is another instance where the favorite might not be getting enough credit.

Unlike Tiafoe, world no. 30 Cameron Norrie has been quite comfortable on clay courts throughout his career, owning a 63% clay win percentage, easily his best among the three surfaces. Two of his five titles have come on clay, the most recent of which was just last year at Rio de Janeiro.

Norrie has a solid 12-8 overall record this season, most notably advancing to the round of 16 at the Austrian Open. While he wasn't able to repeat in Rio de Janeiro this year, he advanced to the semifinals before succumbing to a lower-ranked opponent after feeling under the weather.

Joao Fonseca is a talented 17-year-old who's just getting started, making him difficult to evaluate, but he's incredibly short on experience. Fonseca has all of 10 career ATP Tour-level matches, and he's split them down the middle. Norrie will be the highest-ranked opponent he's ever faced and just the third inside the top 50.

Norrie is a -220 favorite (66.7% implied odds), but Tennis Abstract projects a 78% win probability. Massey Ratings is way up at 94%. While these models can't predict the raw potential of Fonseca, it does go to show how little the teenager has achieved to this point.

The spread has widened slightly since this match was announced, but covering 3.5 games feels very doable for Norrie even if Fonseca surprises a bit. Once again, a straight-sets win (+120) is another option for the plus odds.

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