Lionel Messi World Cup Golden Boot Odds, Analysis and Prediction

Lionel Messi World Cup Odds at a Glance

• +1600 odds to win the Golden Boot
• Argentina is +850 to win the World Cup

The 2026 World Cup kicks off on June 11th, and the event is not short on star power.

Lionel Messi completed the sport at the 2022 World Cup, lifting the trophy and checking off the final box in his otherworldly career. But he's not done yet. What are his Golden Boot odds heading into the tournament, and what should you expect from the Argentina star?

Betting odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds and are subject to change after this article is published.

How to bet on the 2026 World Cup.

Lionel Messi Golden Boot Odds for the 2026 World Cup

Messi enters the World Cup as the fourth-favorite in the Golden Boot market, with FanDuel Sportsbook's Golden Boot odds listing him at +1600. Here's the list of the players at the top of the market. The full Golden Boot odds market is available at FanDuel.

Lionel Messi Golden Boot Analysis

Lionel Messi arrives at the 2026 World Cup for what is almost certainly the final chapter of his Argentina career, and he's listed at +1600 in the Golden Boot market on FanDuel Sportsbook — a price that reflects both his enduring quality and the legitimate questions surrounding his age, fitness and evolving role.

In Qatar 2022, he was the joint favorite alongside Mbappé to claim the Golden Boot, ultimately scoring seven goals in seven games before narrowly missing out on the Golden Boot by one — a reminder that when the stage is biggest, Messi still finds a way to be at the center of everything.

Argentina drew Group J with Austria, Algeria, and Jordan — a fairly weak group, which sets up a dream scenario for Messi to build early goals before the knockout rounds. Argentina are among the favorites once again, listed at +850 odds to win the World Cup (tied for fourth-best).

Messi remains Argentina's penalty taker and the focal point of their attack in high-leverage moments, even as his role has shifted toward a deeper, more creative position in recent years.

However, that positional evolution is also a central concern — with world-class finishers like Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez playing in front of Messi, Argentina no longer relies on its No. 10 to carry the goal-scoring burden the way they once did.

Plus, the last time we saw Messi on the pitch, he had to come off early due to injury for Inter Miami. His fitness will be a huge storyline to watch ahead of the World Cup.

Ultimately, Messi is Messi. We've seen this guy do it all. But with that said, given the uncertainty with his fitness as well as his age, the market is likely a little too optimistic about his Golden Boot chances.

Who will lead the 2026 World Cup in goals? Here's the Golden Boot odds for 2026 as well as our Golden Boot picks and best bets.

Check out all of our 2026 World Cup content.

World Cup FAQ

When does the World Cup start?

The first match is June 11th. It pits Mexico versus South Africa at 3 p.m. ET.

Who does the US play in the 2026 World Cup?

The Americans' three group-stage matches are against Paraguay (June 12), Australia (June 19) and Turkey (June 25th).

When is the 2026 World Cup Final?

The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?

Spain leads the betting board at +450 on FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by France at +580 and England at +600.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.